"As far as I know, Sunagakure has three most famous new-generation ninja.
"The first is Rasa, the Third Kazekage's disciple, who also wields Magnet Release.
"The second is Pakura, a young genius who appeared near the end of the Second Shinobi World War and uses Scorch Release.
"As for the third, that's Sasori of the Red Sand, whom we just encountered. But he's already gone rogue, so there's no need to consider him.
"Of the remaining two, Rasa is the Third Kazekage's disciple, making him the most orthodox successor to the title of Fourth Kazekage. He's definitely determined to claim the position.
"As for the other, Pakura of Scorch Release, she made a name for herself at a young age and is proud and ambitious. She's also one of the strongest ninja in Sunagakure, so she's bound to have plenty of ninja rallying around her. In that situation, I don't believe she'd have no interest in becoming Kazekage.
"What's more, even if she has no such ambition, she may have no choice. As long as the people around her are ambitious and want more influence in Sunagakure, they'll certainly push her toward the position of Kazekage."
Kawaki Aoba had arrived at this conclusion by working backward from what he knew would happen. Put plainly, he'd made it all up.
Yet those made-up words succeeded in making Yuhi Shinku take the matter seriously.
He suddenly realized that his most outstanding student's analysis didn't seem all that far-fetched.
He'd never noticed before that, in addition to his talent for ninjutsu, his student was so capable. He'd quietly learned so much about the other villages.
Though it was all publicly available information, a newly graduated Genin like him would still have to put in some effort to learn it.
At that moment, Kawaki Aoba "saw" that Teacher Shinku seemed to be persuaded, so he quickly piled on another argument. "As long as Rasa and Pakura are both in Sunagakure, they'll have to settle who comes out on top to decide who gets the position of Fourth Kazekage.
"Now we come to the truly important question: how will the two of them settle things? What kind of contest would be enough to determine which of them is more suited to become the Fourth Kazekage?
"There's only one answer: Konoha. Whoever wins the war against us and secures enough spoils will have a greater advantage in the selection of the Fourth Kazekage."
This time, Yuhi Shinku fell silent. Kawaki Aoba's analysis was still far-fetched, but it wasn't impossible. Who knew what the people in Sunagakure were thinking?
After all, they'd already started moving some of their ninja forces toward the border.
Teacher Shinku was almost convinced. Observation Haki at max level really was the best.
A smile appeared on Kawaki Aoba's face as he brought out his final argument to persuade the other man.
"Besides, I think Sunagakure will wage war against us for another reason: they need to pin the Third Kazekage's death on us."
"What?" Asuma, who'd been listening to Kawaki Aoba's analysis from the side, jumped up. "Impossible! Their own people killed the Third Kazekage, didn't they? It was Sasori of the Red Sands! We saw the Human Puppet ourselves."
"That's right, Asuma. You're correct. That's the truth. But there's no way to explain that to the people of Sunagakure. They won't believe us, and they can't afford to believe us. Want to know why?" Kawaki Aoba once again anticipated Asuma's thoughts, leaving him speechless.
"Because they need this war. Rasa and Pakura need a war to prove themselves, and the ninja supporting them need to earn merit on the battlefield so they can climb higher.
"And the high-ranking officials responsible for keeping Sunagakure running after the Kazekage's death won't pass up a chance to tear a huge chunk out of Konoha if one presents itself.
"Finally, they can accept the outcome of this war whether they win or lose.
"If they defeat Konoha, that victory will give them something to boast about for the rest of their lives. It'll also make Sunagakure famous, earn them more trust, bring in more missions, and make the Daimyo of the Land of Wind value them more and increase their funding.
"With so many benefits right in front of them, how could we get Sunagakure to admit that Konoha had nothing to do with the Third Kazekage's death? How could we stop them from declaring war on us?
"There's no way. Sunagakure starting this war is inevitable.
"Even if we'd managed to capture Sasori of the Red Sand alive last night, bring the Third Kazekage's Human Puppet back to the village, and give Sunagakure a reasonable explanation, they absolutely wouldn't accept it.
"After all, Sasori of the Red Sand is the grandson of Chiyo and the First Kazekage. If that scandal were confirmed, the blow to morale in Sunagakure would be immeasurable.
"So, from Sunagakure's point of view, they have to find someone to take the blame. And Konoha is undoubtedly the most suitable scapegoat."
Sarutobi Asuma fell silent. He realized he couldn't find a single flaw in Kawaki Aoba's reasoning. The most outrageous part was that when he put himself in Sunagakure's shoes, he even felt the urge to go to war with Konoha. If they won, the benefits really would be unimaginable.
Wait. If they won? What if they didn't?
At that moment, Sarutobi Asuma felt he'd spotted the crucial point.
"What if they lose? Can Sunagakure really guarantee they'll beat Konoha?" Sarutobi Asuma spoke as quickly as he could, afraid that if he took too long, Kawaki Aoba would once again say what was on his mind.
After he finished, he stared intently at Kawaki Aoba, hoping his friend would make a mistake for once. Wouldn't that mean they could avoid the war?
Little did he know that Kawaki Aoba had already led him right down the garden path.
It was just a Genin's analysis. How could it change the future, when the tide of events had already set it in motion?
Even so, Kawaki Aoba was destined to disappoint Asuma.
He turned around and looked at Asuma with a puzzled expression, then answered as if it were obvious. "Isn't that perfectly normal? We're Konoha! Isn't it only natural for them to lose to us?
"When it comes to secret techniques, our village has the Inuzuka, Aburame, and Ino-Shika-Cho clans.
"When it comes to bloodline limits, we have the Uchiha and Hyuga, prestigious clans whose visual techniques have stood tall in the Shinobi World for a thousand years.
"And even among the powerful clans without bloodline limits or secret techniques, we have your Sarutobi and the Shimura Clan.
"Even if we just compare the number of civilian ninja, how many people with the talent to become ninja can a place as harsh as Sunagakure possibly have to train?
"Finally, the number of powerful fighters is the key factor that decides the outcome of a war. Let's start with Sunagakure. Who do they have?
"Among the new generation, Rasa and Pakura; among the older generation, Chiyo and Ebizo. I can think of only four. But what about Konoha?
"Among the clans I just mentioned, which clan head is inferior to the others, aside from the Hyuga? Even if two of us fought them, we'd still have powerful fighters left over to watch from the sidelines.
"Faced with a force as powerful as us, wouldn't it be perfectly normal for them to lose?"
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