To intervene in the Russo-Japanese War, preparations had to be made in advance. In every major war before this, Ernst had only been able to profit because he had laid the relevant groundwork early on. Now, he faced three possibilities: first, the Russo-Japanese War might be delayed; second, it might not happen at all; third, events might follow the course of his previous life.
The possibility of an earlier outbreak was virtually nonexistent. Because of Ernst, Japan's overall strength was not as great as in his previous life, while Tsarist Russia, much like before, had achieved little of note. At the same time, neither the Russo-Turkish War nor the Western Regions War had gone as smoothly as they had in his previous life. Thus, even if the two countries went to war, it was unlikely to begin ahead of schedule.
In the Russo-Japanese War, Japan held greater initiative than Russia. While Japan had actively prepared for war in his previous life, Russia had still failed to reach a unified internal decision. When faced with Japan's all-out blow, the hastily prepared Russian Army was ultimately crushed. Therefore, Japan should be the standard for judging the timing of the war.
Thus, if East Africa wanted to predict when the Russo-Japanese War would break out, it only needed to keep a close eye on the movements of the Japanese Government and military. Once Japan completed its military expansion, financial pressure would ensure that it could not avoid war. At present, among the Far East countries, Japan would never dare act rashly against the spheres of influence held by Britain, France, and East Africa.
The interests of Britain, France, and the United States in the Far East overlapped to a certain extent. Taking Shanghai as an example, Britain and France both held concessions there.