The Austro-Hungarian Empire regarded the Balkan Peninsula as its own sphere of influence, but the countries on the Balkan Peninsula were predominantly Slavic, giving Russia the initiative there.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire had never been a major colonial power to begin with. Losing the important Balkan market was practically driving it into a corner, and once it declared war on Serbia, Russia, also a Slavic state, would clearly be unable to stand idly by.
The Balkan Peninsula was almost the only direction in which the Austro-Hungarian Empire could expand, as well as its sole hope of further strengthening its national power. The Yugoslav state Serbia sought to establish already overlapped with Austro-Hungarian territory and might even split the Slavs within the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Thus, the conflict between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Serbia was almost impossible to reconcile—unless Serbia abandoned its ambitions toward Austro-Hungarian territory.
However, after this Balkan Wars, Serbia's nationalist fervor would swell even further. Ernst could already foresee the tense relations between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Serbia after the war ended.
A war between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Serbia would, in all likelihood, trigger a chain reaction across Europe and ultimately lead to the outbreak of a full-scale European war. Thus, the key to the outbreak of the First World War lay in the conflict between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Serbia.
Though he was filled with sympathy for the future Austro-Hungarian Empire, Ernst could not go against East Africa's national interests and wade into the mire of a full-scale European war. This was also an important reason why he had made arrangements in Bosnia in advance. If events developed toward the worst possible outcome, East Africa had to ensure its voice in the region after the Austro-Hungarian Empire disintegrated, and there was no more effective method than supporting a