By Ernst's logic, once Japan moved against East Africa's Pacific colonies, the countdown to Japan's death would essentially begin.
Before going to war with East Africa, Japan would inevitably make comprehensive preparations. To contend militarily with a superpower like East Africa, Japan would likely need at least another two years of preparation.
"Before Japan's reserves of strategic materials such as energy and minerals are exhausted, they should not go to war with the Empire."
"To prepare for war against the Far East Empire, Japan spent decades making preparations, while its specific military stockpiles were accumulated for at least more than ten years."
"So Japan's pressure on the Far East battlefield is not yet particularly great; it remains within what they can bear."
"But next, as the Far East War fails to produce results satisfactory to Japan, they will have to raise the stakes, expand the scale of their armed forces, and intensify the consumption of resources within Japan."
"Before long, Japan will have no choice but to seek new sources of energy and strategic materials to support the continuation of the war."
Even before the war, compared with the other great powers, Japan was a "Poor Imperialism" nation. Among the great powers, only Italy faced the same predicament as Japan in terms of resources.
Therefore, even though Japan had prepared for the Far East War for more than a decade before the conflict, the energy and resources it could gather were extremely limited.
Take oil, for example. The United States, East Africa, Britain, and the Netherlands were all oil suppliers in the Pacific region. Oil was not especially scarce in the Pacific region, but it was unrealistic for Japan to import huge quantities of oil through trade, especially enough energy to sustain an army of a million men over the