If you want to intervene in Russo-Japanese War, you must prepare in advance. In every major war before, Ernst has already made relevant arrangements to profit from it. Now Ernst faces three possibilities. One is that Russo-Japanese War will be postponed, the other is that Russo-Japanese War will not happen, and the third is that it will be consistent with the previous life.
The possibility of an early outbreak is almost non-existent. Because of Ernst, the overall level of Japan is not as strong as in the previous life, and Tsarist Russia has not done much as in the previous life. At the same time, Russo-Turkish War, the war in the Western Region is not as smooth as in the previous life, so even if a war breaks out between the two countries, it is unlikely to be advanced.
Among Russo-Japanese War, Japan is more proactive than Russia. Therefore, when Japan was actively preparing for war in the previous life, there was no unified opinion within Russia. However, in response to Japan's all-out attack, the hastily prepared Russian Army was ultimately defeated. Therefore, the country that determines the time of the war should use Japan as the standard.
Therefore, if East Africa wants to predict the outbreak time of Russo-Japanese War, it only needs to keep an eye on the movements of Japanese Government and its army. Once Japan's military expansion is completed, it will be impossible for Japan not to fight under financial pressure. And currently in the Far East countries, Britain, France and East Africa have spheres of influence, and it is impossible for Japan to act rashly.
The interests of Britain, France and the United States in the Far East overlap to a certain extent. Take Shanghai as an example. There are leases from Britain and France. Although United States has no leases, it has strong economic strength.
The sphere of influence in East Africa seems to be a good target, and East Africa has a normal relationship with Japan, but it cannot become the target of Japan, unless Japan can withstand the pressure of Germany, Austria, and East Africa at the same time. Therefore, German state's signboard is very easy to use, and the business groups of the three Far Eastern countries can actually be regarded as a whole.
Russia's sphere of influence is in the northeast, and although Russia borders Far East Empire and Siberian Railway still exists, Siberian Railway's transportation capacity is a huge problem. For example, when Russo-Japanese War broke out in the previous life, areas such as Lake Baikal in Russia's Siberian Railway were not completed.
Moreover, the geographical location of Tsarist Russia's sphere of influence is exactly stuck at the first stop of Japan's national policy of aggression. The sequence of Japan's national policy of aggression is to use the peninsula as a springboard, followed by the area currently illegally occupied by Russians.
The reason why Britain wants to get involved is also related to the current sphere of influence of Tsarist Russia. As the United Kingdom has the greatest interests in the Far Eastern Empire, its sphere of influence is bounded by the Huaihe River and divided into two parts by the Huaihai Economic Zone in East Africa.
This can be seen from the distribution of treaty ports. The most important coastal treaty port in East Africa is Jiaozhou, while Shanghai in the south and Yingkou in the north are both controlled by British. Therefore, if Russian power continues to move south, the first thing it will threaten is the interests of Britain and other countries.
Although Huaihai Economic Zone has developed well in recent years, it is impossible to make up for the fact that its economy in the eastern coastal area of the Far East Empire is relatively weak in a short time. After all, the rupture of the Yellow River, various natural disasters, frequent wars, and East African immigration policies have destined the local population to be difficult to return to its heyday.
The fundamental reason for economic recovery is the rapid development of cities in Huaihai Economic Zone. On the other hand, the agriculture in Huaihai Economic Zone has not yet fully recovered.
Moreover, the main economic force driving economic development in the region has changed from the original East Africa, Germany, and Austria to Germany, East Africa, and Austria. With East Africa vigorously developing its local economy, immigration policy adjustments, state-owned enterprise reforms, and other reasons, East Africa's activity in the Far East Empire empire has become less active than German capital.
Fortunately, East Africa has a relatively solid local foundation, so it is still the second leading force in the region after the Far East Empire government.
All in all, even if other countries are interested in Huaihai Economic Zone, the most anxious countries should include Germany, not just East Africa.
Therefore, within the region, the area that Britain and Japan are most afraid of and the easiest to conquer is the area radiated by Russian influence.
As for the second scenario, there is a high possibility that a war between Japan and Russia will not break out. This mainly depends on Japanese Government's attitude. However, with this secret meeting between Britain and Japanese Government, Ernst is already very confident, and Japanese Government's ambitions are expanding. As for the third scenario, it is basically the same as in the previous life, and there is nothing to say.
Ernst: "Suppose there is a war between the two countries and we want to seek benefits from it. The main target of attack is Russia. Russia is at a strategic disadvantage. Coupled with British's troubles, Russia will inevitably have no choice but to turn to us in East Africa."
In the previous life, Russia was blocked by the United Kingdom. Some of its main naval forces in Europe were unable to fully support the war because of British's obstruction.
Russian Black Sea Fleet could not even pass Dardanelles Strait due to treaty reasons, so in the end they could only draw forces from the most powerful Baltic Fleet, bypass African continent, and finally reach Asia, because Gibraltar and Suez Canal are also under the control of British.
The detour of the ship by Cape of Good Hope not only increased the navigation time and difficulty, but also because of British's intervention, the neutral forces in Africa in the previous life did not dare to provide assistance to Tsarist Russia and rest and recuperate.
This makes the place where Tsarist Russian soldiers sleep covered with coal ash. Without carrying a large amount of coal and supplies, and without effective rest, Tsarist Russian Navy can reach the Far East Sea. This performance is very qualified.
But this time and space is different. East Africa occupies a small half of Africa, and it also has a stable colony in Nanyang region, which is fully capable of providing relevant services to the Russian fleet.
Of course, whether East Africa will cooperate with Russia depends on what bargaining chips Britain and Tsarist Russia can give to East Africa.
The scope of interests is to provide services to Russia. In Ernst's view, if a war breaks out, Russia will undoubtedly lose. Even if East Africa provides services to its navy, it will not change this result.
"Secondly, there is the funding problem of Tsarist Russia. We can give Russia some help in this regard, but it must have collateral or short-term loans, especially mineral resources such as oil."
During the Russo-Japanese War period, Russia's funding gap was very large. Although Russia was a big country, Russo-Japanese War's expenses were very huge, and now Russian government was in debt. If there was another large-scale war, the Russian treasury would be in trouble.
Moreover, although lending money to Russia can be profitable, it is very risky. In the previous life, Russia's largest creditor was France. France, a usurious country, has been lending money to Russia since Franco-Prussian War. France has provided Russia with a large number of loans, but French never imagined that his massive investment in Tsarist Russia would eventually be rejected by the new government due to the change of Russian regime.
Therefore, long-term business cannot be done in East Africa. Even if the Russian regime does not collapse, debt collection work in East Africa will not be easy to carry out because Russia has too many creditors, including France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Austro-Hungarian Empire, and debt collection work will not be easy to carry out with so many competitors, so East Africa can only find solutions from Russian resources.
Among the various resources in Russia, oil is what East Africa needs more. The collapse of the Russian regime in the previous life was in 1917. There were still more than ten years in between, which was enough for East Africa to obtain a large amount of oil resources from Baku oilfields.
Russian government, which is unable to repay its debts, will definitely be willing to accept East Africa's proposal. At least before Russian government goes bankrupt, East Africa can make a huge profit.
Ernst continued, "Now it depends on the game between Britain, Japan and Russia. Only by setting up the net well in advance can we obtain rich harvests. In particular, we must pay attention to the movements of the governments of Japan and Russia. It is best for us to place bets at critical moments."
You definitely can't bet only on Russia. East Africa wants both to take it all, Russo-Japanese War. The more fierce the fight between the two, the better.