"Your Highness, now is the time to express our country's attitude. Based on the various intelligence we have compiled, it can be basically determined that Tsarist Russia and Japan will eventually have a war, and both sides are making preparations for this war." Felix said.
"Russian internal thoughts on the Japan war have been revealed. According to gossip, Russian government has long concluded that a war with Japan will occur between 1903 and 1905."
"So, the attitude towards war is not a sudden idea, but a major event that Russia has planned for a long time. The intelligence we collected from Europe and the Far East also pointed out that Russian government is strengthening its military strength in the Far East recently."
"So the war news leaked from Russia is obviously not groundless. They are likely to be the first to launch an attack on Japan."
Ernst basically agrees with Felix's inference. However, the beginning of Russo-Japanese War's previous life was Japan's sneak attack on the Russian Army. However, it is impossible for Felix to think that Japan, a "small" country, has such no martial ethics.
Of course, Ernst did not interrupt Felix, but instead let him continue.
"At the same time, Japan is also actively preparing for war. Especially after signing relevant agreements with the United Kingdom, military cooperation between the two countries has become increasingly frequent. It is estimated that Japan is also supported by the forces of United States and Far East Empire."
It is impossible to imagine that the cooperation between the UK and Japan is not frequent. After all, most of the Japanese fleet ships come from or imitate the UK.
It is not surprising that Far East Empire supports Japan. This is not a random speculation by East African officials, but is based on real evidence. Although there is no official statement, there are already many important people in the Far East Empire who have contact with Japan. There is obviously the instruction of the current Far East Empire government behind this.
But this is also understandable. Although the two countries have had a war, the threat from Tsarist Russia to the Far East Empire is now far greater than that of Japan.
Now Tsarist Russia's Pacific Fleet is stationed in Lushun, and many military forces have illegally entered the territory of the Far Eastern Empire. Therefore, from a bright perspective, Tsarist Russia has caused serious damage to the core interests of the Far Eastern Empire.
Of course, from the 19th century to the early 20th century, "Any country would be so wary of being a neighbor to Tsarist Russia, because Tsarist Russia's paper data were too exaggerated. From today's perspective, Russia is quite scary just by being there."
Ernst also said at this time, "The possibility of a war breaking out between Russia and Japan is now at least 90%, and it is very likely to break out within this year or next year. Now Imperial Japanese Navy's expansion is nearing completion. When Japanese Government's Six-Six Fleet Plan is completely completed, war will not be far away."
"According to the estimates of our intelligence personnel, Six-Six Fleet Plan should be completely completed next year, and Japanese Government cannot maintain this huge army. They can only maintain the operation of their country by waging war."
"So next year at the latest, Japan will definitely launch a war, and the only opponent Japan can anchor is Tsarist Russia or Far East Empire. Between the two countries, Tsarist Russia has the greatest chance."
Japan has always been on the road of light military force and militarism, so it is impossible to stop. As for Russia, it is not easy to be sure.
However, as long as either of the two countries is determined, this war will be inevitable, so Ernst determines that the probability of a war breaking out next year is more than 90%, and Japan must be the first to strike.
Because Russia has only now begun to borrow money from everywhere, this reflects to a certain extent Russia's hesitation in its attitude towards the Japan war. This hesitation was also one of the important factors in Russia's failure in the previous life.
If Russia pays more attention to Japan, it may change the direction of the war. However, judging from the various news obtained by Ernst now, Russia has a high probability of returning to the mistakes of its previous life.
Svit asked, "Your Highness, what role should we play in this very likely war? Should we support Russia or Japan?"
Ernst said, "However, who wins between Japan and Russia has little impact on us, and in my opinion, Japan has a high probability of winning the war, but even if we are on the winner's side, we in East Africa cannot become the first winner."
"If Russia wins, France will undoubtedly benefit the most. If Japan wins, then Britain and France will win the most, so there is no need for us in East Africa to take sides easily."
"For us now, that is to actively seek benefits from this war as much as possible without affecting the economic development of our country. Among Japan and Russia, our interests in Russia are the greatest, so we must maximize our interests from Russia."
Russia is one of the largest markets in East Africa and is very rich in resources. In addition, Russia's Black Sea can directly reach East African East Coast, which makes Russia an important economic partner in East Africa.
Therefore, compared with Japan, Russia is more important to East Africa, so when betting between the two countries, Ernst must choose Russia, even if Russia will most likely fail in the war.
"Russia is one of the most important markets for my country's agricultural products and industrial products, especially the consumption of high-end industrial products such as automobiles and electricity. However, in Japan, our interests are almost negligible. The Japan economy is mainly controlled by the United Kingdom and the United States. Even if we try hard, it is impossible to squeeze in, and it is difficult for Japan to come up with chips that make us excited."
"In the end, whether it is Russia or Japan, their expansion in the Far East may ultimately harm our interests, so if Russia and Japan can both lose, that is the best news for us."
In Ernst's view, Russia's defeat is the most likely. After all, Russian navy is an existence with only superficial appearance. Although Imperial Japanese Navy is not as large as Russian navy, it does not lose to any country in the Far East.
And this also strengthened Ernst's attitude of limited support for Russia. For many countries in the world, Russia is very unpopular.
But for East Africa, it's just the opposite. At least at this stage, East Africa and Russia are extremely economically complementary, which makes the relationship between the two countries always relatively harmonious due to interest issues.
Therefore, it is absolutely impossible for East Africa to offend Russia. Instead, it must support Russia. This support will not allow Russia to win the war, but will only make Russia fail slower and consume more Japan's potential.
So Ernst said, "By negotiating with Tsarist Russian government, we can give Russia certain support in areas such as finance. However, Russia also needs to show sincerity to make it easier for my country's industrial and agricultural commodities to enter the Russian market. At the same time, Russia should expand the scope of trade with East Africa, especially to make the import of oil and other products smoother."
The cost of Russian oil is relatively low. Currently, Russia's developed oil fields are mainly located along the coast of the Caspian Sea. As long as a section of land transportation is used, it can finally reach East Africa through the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, etc.
Although Romania and Austro-Hungarian Empire oil have more advantages in transportation costs, their output is relatively low and there are many competitors, which also makes Russian oil resources account for an increasing share of imported oil in East Africa.
The development of East Africa's oil industry and internal combustion engine vehicles has created an increasingly strong demand for oil resources in East Africa, which makes it impossible for East Africa to ignore Russian oil resources.
While oil is only a typical resource, East Africa also has a prominent demand for other Russian products, including high-quality wheat, oats, etc. The agriculture of the two countries is highly complementary, with a tropical country and a cold temperate country, so that the dominant crops of the two countries do not conflict.
Moreover, the quality of Russian agricultural products, especially grains, tastes and nutrition exceeds that of other European countries, and is much better than that of East Africa. At present, in addition to rice, East African grains are more developed as raw materials for industrial production, because the quality and taste can no longer meet the needs of the country's people.