Psychological Manipulation

Cao Haichuan took out his cigarette case again, and once again realized he couldn't smoke.

He felt a bit agitated, so he simply stood up and walked to the large screen, pointing to the relevant information on the screen to continue his explanation.

"We've analyzed this before. The initial state of the Iron Block Mechanism had a certain distance from his head.

"Wei Xinjian actually had a tolerance for two shots. Even if he chose to shoot the innocent person with these two shots, it wouldn't have caused him any harm.

"In other words, this initial mechanism design created a false sense of security for him.

"Compared to the Iron Block, which hadn't clamped his head yet, the handgun with a 1/6 chance of being shot dead was clearly more terrifying.

"This was the first shot, and he wasn't psychologically prepared for 'shooting himself' yet.

"'What if the first shot is live? A 1/6 chance isn't low.' Driven by this thought, he would most likely choose to shoot the innocent person on the first try.

"Conversely, if the Iron Block had been right against his head from the start, he might have made a more rational choice on this first shot."

Everyone nodded. This detail was indeed something they hadn't considered before.

Jiang He asked curiously, "Then what about the second and third shots?

"He was almost psychologically prepared to shoot himself, right?

"And, during the second shot, he showed obvious hesitation."

Programmer Cai Zhiyuan spoke up, "Officer Cao, I think I roughly understand. Let me explain.

"Actually, it's still a matter of probability.

"Because the probability of being shot on the first try is 1/6, and the probability of being shot on the second try is 1/5, and so on.

"If the previous shot was a blank, then the probability of being shot on each subsequent shot is higher than the previous one.

"So, once he didn't choose to shoot himself on the first try, he would fall into regret, like a sunk cost, which would further affect his judgment.

"And make him hesitate more on each subsequent shot.

"When he aimed at himself for the second shot, driven by the 'sunk cost,' many other thoughts would arise, such as, the chance of being shot on this try is higher than the last one, what if the game designer deliberately put the bullet in the second one?

"From a rational perspective, his worry is baseless and wouldn't help him assess the situation at all.

"But in a life-or-death choice with a 5-minute countdown, it's inherently difficult for people to remain rational, and these tiny pieces of misinformation can easily interfere with their thinking, making them harbor a fluke mentality.

"Because shooting the innocent person again on the next shot, even if it's a blank, still wouldn't harm him.

"The same logic applies to the third shot. The sunk cost and the change in probability would further influence his decision.

"By the time he had actually fired the first three shots and his head was clamped by the Iron Block, he was filled with immense regret, but by then, it was obviously too late."

Cao Haichuan nodded approvingly, "Exactly, that's it.

"You've explained the specific probabilities, making it clearer than my original thoughts.

"But overall, our views are consistent."

However, Cai Zhiyuan then fell into confusion again.

"But even if we don't consider the first three shots, and only consider the situation of the last three shots, as long as he knew the answer to the Three Doors Problem, he should have survived.

"Shooting himself on the fourth and fifth shots, and shooting the innocent person on the sixth shot, his head would be squeezed by the mechanism at most once more, and he still wouldn't necessarily die."

Cao Haichuan shook his head slightly, "Firstly, Wei Xinjian might not necessarily know the Three Doors Problem.

"He might not understand the probability changes at all, and the increased chance of being shot on the fourth try would make him even more afraid to shoot himself.

"Secondly, the news that 'the fifth shot is a blank' was not a mercy from the designer, but precisely a death warrant."

Cai Zhiyuan became even more confused, "What do you mean?"

Cao Haichuan pointed to the information on the screen:

"Wei Xinjian hesitated during the fourth shot.

"Why did he hesitate at this moment? I believe it's completely different from the situation during the second shot.

"It's not a probability issue.

"It's that Wei Xinjian had the idea of seeking death."

Everyone was somewhat surprised, "Seeking death?"

Cao Haichuan nodded, "That's right, because by this time, the Iron Block Mechanism had already squeezed inwards once.

"His skull was fractured, and his intracranial pressure increased. Wei Xinjian was actually in extreme pain.

"The pain from the Iron Block's squeeze exceeded the 1/3 threat of being shot, and he might have had the idea of seeking death to end this suffering quickly.

"And here's the most interesting part:

"If he had actually done so, he wouldn't have died.

"But this was clearly not what the game designer intended."

Everyone suddenly understood.

Under such intense pain, if Wei Xinjian, on impulse, fired three shots at himself, wouldn't he have survived?

In that case, his survival wouldn't be due to repentance or mercy, but due to the despair and irrationality of wanting to commit suicide.

This trial has lost its meaning.

Cao Haichuan paused slightly before continuing, "Therefore, the game designer deliberately inserted a hint here, reawakening his will to survive.

"This ensured the accuracy of this 'trial.'

"Wei Xinjian originally needed to gamble two bullets to know the location of the live round, but now he only needs to gamble one. This means the iron block will move inward at most one more time.

"At this point, he actually had two choices:

"One was to shoot himself directly, with a 1/3 chance of death; the other was to shoot an innocent person, with a 2/3 chance that the iron block would move inward another 1.29cm.

"A 1.29cm compression would be painful, but not immediately fatal.

"With the fifth and sixth bullets determined, the second option clearly offered a higher survival rate."

Cai Zhiyuan understood completely and added:

"So, after his will to survive was reawakened, he ultimately chose to shoot the innocent person.

"But the game designer had set a trap here.

"There were no live rounds in the gun at all, meaning Wei Xinjian completely misjudged the last shot: without a live round, the Iron Block Mechanism would still continue to move.

"Wei Xinjian thought he could escape by shooting the innocent person to death with the last shot, but in reality, he sealed his own death."

Everyone present fell into silence, needing time to process the information.

Li Renshu felt a chill run down her spine: "So, this game is actually a series of interconnected events. From the moment Wei Xinjian decided to shoot an innocent person with his first shot, he was already on a path of no return.

"And his decision to shoot the innocent person to death with his last shot to save himself turned into a death sentence.

"This is an extremely selective game.

"Rational people, selfless people, people with compassion—any one of these traits would actually result in a very high survival rate.

"That's why it's called the 'Redemption Roulette.'

"It looks like a roulette gamble relying on luck, but in reality, it's a test, an examination.

"If Wei Xinjian could have changed his perspective in this desperate situation and valued the life of the innocent person, even just shooting himself once, he could have lived, and his soul could have been redeemed.

"But unfortunately... he never repented until the moment he died."

The crowd fell into a long silence once more.

It was clear that after their minds had been working overtime, a dual exhaustion of body and spirit began to surface.

Simultaneously, the deaths in the game made them feel a severe lack of security.

These two factors combined made most people lose the desire to speak further.

Fu Chen keenly realized this: "Then let's stop here for today. I think everyone can go and rest.

"Although I don't know what the 'New World' is, I've always been someone who goes with the flow, and I hope you all are too.

"Regardless, we are in a community, with different professions and identities. We can complement each other in our divisions of labor, and no matter what problems we encounter, we can face them together."

Everyone got up and returned to their respective rooms.