Cao Haichuan took out his cigarette case again, only to realize once more that he could not smoke.
Growing irritated, he simply stood up, walked to the large screen, and pointed at the relevant information as he continued explaining.
"We analyzed this before. In the Iron Block Mechanism's initial state, it was still some distance away from his head.
"Wei Xinjian actually had room for error with two shots. Even if he chose to shoot innocent people with those two shots, he would not suffer any harm.
"In other words, the mechanism's initial setup gave him a false sense of security.
"Compared with the iron block that had not yet clamped down on his skull, the handgun's one-in-six chance of killing him was clearly more terrifying.
"This was the first shot. He had not yet fully prepared himself psychologically to 'shoot himself.'
"What if the first shot is live ammunition? A one-in-six chance isn't low. Driven by that thought, he would most likely choose to shoot an innocent person with his first shot.
"Conversely, if the iron block had been pressed tightly against his head from the beginning, he might have made a more rational choice with that first shot."
Everyone nodded. This was indeed a detail they had not considered before.
Jiang He curiously pressed on, "What about the second and third shots?
"By then, he had more or less prepared himself mentally to shoot himself, right?
"And during the second shot, he showed obvious hesitation."
The programmer Cai Zhiyuan spoke up. "Officer Cao, I think I understand. Let me explain this part.
"Actually, it still comes down to probability.
"The probability of being hit by the first shot was one-sixth, while the probability for the second shot was one-fifth, and so on.
"If the previous shot was blank, then every shot afterward had a higher chance of being live than the one before it.
"So once he chose not to shoot himself with the first shot, he would fall into regret. Like sunk cost, it would further affect his judgment.
"It would also make him hesitate more with every shot afterward.
"When he aimed the second shot at himself, driven by 'sunk cost,' he would have many other thoughts—for instance, this shot had a higher chance of being live than the previous one. What if the game's designer deliberately put the bullet in the second chamber?
"From a rational perspective, that concern made no sense and would not help him assess the situation at all.
"But in a five-minute life-or-death choice under a countdown, it was already difficult for people to stay rational. Those tiny bits of misleading information could easily disrupt his thinking and make him cling to wishful thinking.
"Because if he continued shooting innocent people with the next shot, then even if it was blank, he would still not be harmed.
"The third shot worked the same way. The sunk cost and changing probabilities would further influence his decision.
"By the time he had truly finished the first three shots and Wei Xinjian's head was caught by the iron block, he would be consumed by regret. But by then, it was obviously too late."
Cao Haichuan nodded approvingly. "That's right. Exactly.
"You laid out the specific probabilities, which makes it clearer than my original explanation.
"But overall, our views are the same."
But then Cai Zhiyuan fell into confusion again.
"Still, even if we ignore the first three shots and consider only the last three, as long as he knew the answer to the Three Doors Problem, he should have been able to survive.
"He could shoot himself with the fourth and fifth shots, then shoot an innocent person with the sixth. At most, the mechanism would squeeze his head one more time, and he still might not die."
Cao Haichuan shook his head slightly. "First, Wei Xinjian might not have known the Three Doors Problem.
"He might not have understood the changing probabilities at all, and the increased chance of the fourth shot being live would make him even less willing to fire at himself.
"Second, the message that 'the fifth shot is blank' was not mercy from the designer at all. It was precisely the death knell."
Cai Zhiyuan was even more confused. "How so?"
Cao Haichuan pointed to the information on the screen.
"Wei Xinjian hesitated during the fourth shot.
"Why did he hesitate at that moment? I believe it was completely different from the second shot.
"It was not a matter of probability.
"Wei Xinjian had developed suicidal thoughts."
Everyone was startled. "Suicidal thoughts?"
Cao Haichuan nodded. "That's right, because by then, the Iron Block Mechanism had already compressed inward once.
"His skull was fractured, his intracranial pressure had risen, and Wei Xinjian was actually in extreme pain.
"The pain of the iron block's compression outweighed the one-in-three threat of being shot. He might have wanted to die, to end that pain as quickly as possible.
"And here was the most interesting part:
"If he had really done that, he would not have died.
"But that was clearly not what the game's designer wanted to see."
The others finally understood.
Under that kind of excruciating pain, if Wei Xinjian acted impulsively and fired three shots at himself in succession, would he not have survived?
In that case, he would have survived not because of repentance or mercy, but because of the despair and irrationality of wanting to kill himself.
That would have changed the nature of the trial.
Cao Haichuan paused briefly before continuing. "So the game's designer deliberately inserted a prompt here, reigniting his will to survive.
"Ensuring the accuracy of this 'trial.'
"Wei Xinjian originally needed to gamble on two bullets to learn where the live round was, but now he only needed to gamble on one. In other words, the iron block could move inward at most one more time.
"At this point, he actually had two choices:
"One was to shoot himself directly, with a one-in-three chance of dying. The other was to shoot an innocent person, with a two-in-three chance that the iron block would move inward another 1.29 centimeters.
"A 1.29-centimeter compression would be agonizing, but it would not kill him immediately.
"Once the fifth and sixth bullets had been determined, the second option clearly had a higher survival rate."
Cai Zhiyuan completely understood now, and he added:
"So after his will to survive was reignited, he ultimately still chose to shoot an innocent person.
"But the game's designer had set a trap here.
"There was no live ammunition in the gun at all. That meant Wei Xinjian made a complete misjudgment about the final shot: even without live ammunition, the Iron Block Mechanism would continue moving.
"Wei Xinjian thought he could shoot an innocent person with the last shot and escape, but in reality, he was declaring his own death."
Everyone present fell silent. They needed time to process this information.
Li Renshu felt a chill run down her back. "So this game was actually linked together step by step. From the moment Wei Xinjian decided to shoot an innocent person with his first shot, he had already embarked completely on a road of no return.
"And his final thought of killing an innocent person so that he could live became a death sentence instead.
"This was a game with extremely stringent selection criteria.
"Rational people, selfless people, people with compassion—any one of those qualities would instead give someone an extremely high chance of survival.
"That was why it was called Redemption Roulette.
"It looked like a game of chance, like Russian roulette, but it was actually an ordeal, a test.
"If Wei Xinjian could have changed his outlook in such desperate circumstances and cherished the lives of innocent people, then even if he had only shot himself once, he could have survived, and his soul could have found redemption.
"But unfortunately... he never repented, even in death."
Everyone once again fell into a long silence.
Clearly, after their minds had been racing at high speed, the exhaustion in both their bodies and spirits began to surface.
At the same time, the deaths in the game left them severely lacking in any sense of security.
With those two factors combined, most of them no longer wanted to speak.
Fu Chen keenly noticed this. "Then let's stop here for today. I think everyone should go and rest.
"Although we don't know what kind of place the New World is, I've always been someone who adapts to circumstances. I hope everyone can do the same.
"No matter what, we are in the same community. We have different professions and different identities, and we can complement one another through division of labor. Whatever problems we encounter, we can face them together."
Everyone stood up and returned to their respective rooms.