Chapter Summaries

Key Plot Points and Events

• New Zealand prepares for its first referendum, with voting lasting from January 15 to February 15, 1904.
• The referendum offers three options: New Zealand independence, remaining a self-governing colony under the British Empire, or joining Australia.
• International observers from nearby colonies, representing their respective countries, are invited to ensure the referendum's fairness.
• Voting takes place over a month, with results to be announced on March 1.

Character Developments

• Arthur does not return to Australia for the National Day celebrations, focusing on New Zealand's referendum instead.
• Joshua represents Arthur and Australia, touring New Zealand cities during the referendum.

Significant Themes

• Colonialism and independence: New Zealanders weigh the pros and cons of independence, remaining a British colony, or joining Australia.
• International attention: The referendum garners global interest, with other colonies hoping for similar independence movements.
• Power dynamics: European colonial powers remain wary of losing their colonies and maintain a harsh stance towards colonial residents.

Character Interactions

• Arthur and Joshua work together remotely, with Joshua acting as Arthur's representative in New Zealand.
• New Zealanders actively participate in the referendum, expressing their opinions and desires for their country's future.
• International observers interact with New Zealand officials and citizens to ensure the referendum's fairness and impartiality.

Key Plot Points and Events

• Tension builds between Russia and Japan over control of the resource-rich Three Eastern Provinces.
• Japan's financial strain due to limited domestic resources and expensive mineral imports from Australia pushes them to seek a solution in the Three Eastern Provinces.
• Russia, as the dominant power in the Far East, refuses to cede control of the territory.
• Japan attempts to negotiate with Russia for six months but fails to reach an agreement.
• On February 6, 1904, Japan unilaterally suspends negotiations and severs diplomatic relations with Russia.
• Two days later, Japan attacks Russia's fleet at Port Arthur, initiating the Russo-Japanese War.

Character Developments

• Japan's determination to secure resources and maintain its rise as a nation, even at the risk of war.
• Tsar Nicholas II's personal animosity towards Japan due to an assassination attempt during his visit as Crown Prince.
• The division within Russia's leadership between the peace faction (advocating for temporary concessions to prepare better for war) and the war faction (confident in Russia's military strength and seeking expansion).

Significant Themes

• Imperialism and resource competition.
• Nationalism and the desire for national survival and prosperity (Japan).
• Autocratic leadership and its impact on decision-making (Russia's Tsar Nicholas II).

Character Interactions

• Japan's government and military work together to pursue territorial expansion and secure resources.
• The Tsardom of Russia's leadership is divided, with the peace faction and war faction presenting different strategies to Tsar Nicholas II.
• Tsar Nicholas II considers the advice of both factions before making his decision regarding war with Japan.

Key Plot Points and Events

• Japan severs diplomatic ties with Russia, preparing for war while Russia underestimates the threat.
• Japan launches a surprise attack on Russia's Pacific Fleet in Port Arthur on February 8, 1904.
• Russia's fleet suffers significant damage, including the loss of two ships in Incheon.
• War between Russia and Japan fully erupts on February 9, 1904.
• New Zealand's referendum voting concludes on February 15, 1904, with results announced on March 15, 1904.

Character Developments

• Tsar Nicholas II and Russian officials underestimate Japan's resolve, leading to inadequate war preparations.
• Governor-General Alekseyev and Pacific Fleet Commander Stark are arrogant and complacent, failing to prepare for the Japanese attack.
• Arthur, Duke of Australia, plays a significant role in New Zealand's referendum, influencing the outcome.

Significant Themes

• Underestimation of the enemy's capabilities and resolve leading to strategic mistakes.
• The impact of war on international relations and global attention.
• The power of public opinion and referendum in shaping a nation's future.

Character Interactions

• Russia's officials, including Tsar Nicholas II, underestimate Japan's intentions, leading to poor communication and preparation.
• Arthur interacts with New Zealanders, influencing their decision to join Australia in the referendum.
• International powers react to the war between Russia and Japan, with the British Empire, the United States, and Germany supporting their respective allies.

Key Plot Points and Events

• A conference between Australian and New Zealand officials was held in Sydney from March 20 to April 11, 1904, to discuss the formation of a federation.
• The conference resulted in the establishment of the Commonwealth of Australia and New Zealand, with Sydney as its federal capital.
• Arthur agreed to become the Duke of New Zealand, ruling the Duchy of New Zealand as an elected Duke.
• Administrative divisions were reformed, creating the Federal Capital Territory, North New Zealand State, and South New Zealand State.
• The federation comprised three parts: the Australian Duchy, the Duchy of New Zealand, and the New Guinea Colony.

Character Developments

• Arthur's power and influence are solidified as he becomes the Duke of New Zealand and maintains control over the federal government.
• New Zealand officials are mollified by being given positions in state governments, recognizing their competitiveness is not yet on par with Australian officials.

Significant Themes

• Power dynamics and division between Australia and New Zealand within the federation.
• Arthur's absolute control over the government and his ability to maintain order.
• The establishment of a dualistic state with both independent governments and a unified federal government.

Character Interactions

• Arthur interacts with officials from both Australia and New Zealand, ultimately gaining their support and allegiance.
• Australian and New Zealand officials collaborate to form the new federation, with some New Zealand officials feeling discontented initially but later mollified by state government positions.
• Arthur's relationship with the British Empire is reinforced as he maintains control over the New Guinea Colony.

Key Plot Points and Events

• The chapter discusses the decline of monarchies and autocratic states post-World War II, attributing it to factors like the Divine Right of Kings' instability, democratic influence from Europe and the US, and the people's impression of aristocratic oppression.
• In Australia, the monarchy didn't face hatred as it provided welfare benefits, unlike in the Tsardom of Russia where the Tsar's participation in World War I led to revolution and the execution of the Royal Family.
• The war in the Far East intensifies. The Tsardom of Russia replaces General Tusk with Makarov, a renowned naval commander, to lead the Pacific Fleet. Makarov implements defensive measures and boosts morale, making the Japan troubled by his leadership.
• The Japan plans to eliminate Makarov by laying minefields in Port Arthur to lure him into a trap.

Character Developments

• Tsar Nicholas II is portrayed as disregarding the sentiments of the Russian people, leading to chaos and revolution.
• General Makarov is introduced as a capable, blunt, and respected commander who effectively boosts the morale of the Tsardom of Russia's naval soldiers.

Significant Themes

• The decline of monarchies and autocratic states due to democratic influence and the people's desire for change.
• The impact of leadership on morale and military effectiveness.
• The consequences of disregarding the people's sentiments and needs.

Character Interactions

• The chapter doesn't focus on character interactions but rather on the relationship between the people and their rulers, and between the Tsardom of Russia and the Japan.
• Makarov's leadership earns him the respect of the naval officers and men, contrasting with the Japan's view of him as a threat.

Key Plot Points and Events

• The chapter discusses revisions made to statements about the Federal Government in Chapter 180.
• The Australian Government, New Zealand Government, and Federal Government continue to exist as before.
• An explanation is added regarding the Duke of New Zealand title's attainment, clarifying it was granted following multiple petitions.

Character Developments

• No significant character development is presented in this chapter, as it primarily focuses on administrative changes.

Significant Themes

• Transparency and Clarity: The chapter emphasizes the importance of clear and accurate information, reflecting a theme of transparency and accountability.
• Governance and Structure: It highlights the structure and functioning of the governments involved.

Character Interactions

• The chapter does not involve direct character interactions, as it is a statement from an unspecified narrator addressing the readers.

Key Plot Points and Events

• Lieutenant General Makarov, commanding the Pacific Fleet, successfully conducts mining operations to disrupt Japan's supply lines.
• Two Russian cruisers are pursued by the Japan's Second Fleet, leading Makarov to dispatch a rescue force.
• Makarov orders Fleet Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Witthöft to lead the vanguard while he prepares the main force at Port Arthur to guard against potential ambush.
• Witthöft's vanguard engages and routs the Japan's Second Fleet, but they are lured into a trap, realizing too late that they are being pursued by a superior force.

Character Developments

• Makarov demonstrates strategic thinking and caution by preparing for a potential ambush.
• Witthöft initially shows enthusiasm and decisiveness in engaging the enemy but later exhibits caution and strategic thinking when he realizes the trap.

Significant Themes

• The importance of strategic caution and preparedness in warfare.
• The consequences of underestimating the enemy and being lured into a trap.

Character Interactions

• Makarov and Witthöft work together, with Makarov providing overall strategy and Witthöft leading the vanguard.
• The Tsardom of Russia's fleet interacts with the Japan's Second Fleet, initially routing them but later realizing they are outmatched and potentially ambushed.

Key Plot Points and Events

• The Pacific Fleet, under General Witteheft, attempts a risky maneuver to turn around, which could reverse the tide of battle but also leaves them vulnerable.
• The Japan's fleet intercepts the turning Pacific Fleet, leading to a naval engagement.
• General Makarov's main Pacific Fleet is blocked by a significant portion of the Japan's fleet, preventing them from reinforcing Witteheft.
• Two major naval battles occur simultaneously: one involving Witteheft's vanguard and the Japan's intercepting forces, and another between Makarov's main fleet and the Japan's blocking forces.
• The naval battles last from approximately 3 PM to 6 PM on April 13th, with observers from various global powers, including the British Empire, the United States, the German Empire, and France.

Character Developments

• General Witteheft demonstrates strategic thinking and adaptability in responding to the Japan's interception.
• General Makarov shows tactical prowess and understanding of the broader strategic situation, recognizing the Japan's intent to delay and attack the Pacific Fleet's vanguard.
• The actions of both generals highlight their commitment to their duties and the fate of their respective nations.

Significant Themes

• Strategy vs. Tactics: Witteheft's strategic planning is tested by the Japan's interception, while Makarov focuses on tactical responses to the immediate threat.
• International Interests: The involvement of global powers as observers underscores the geopolitical stakes and potential consequences of the war between Russia and Japan.
• Resource Allocation: Both sides must balance their forces between different theaters of operation, leading to strategic decisions that impact the outcome of battles.

Character Interactions

• Witteheft and Makarov, though not directly interacting, are connected through their shared objective of protecting the Pacific Fleet and their respective responses to the Japan's tactics.
• The interactions between the Pacific Fleet and the Japan's forces highlight the challenges and dangers of naval warfare, particularly when maneuvering and outnumbered.
• The presence of foreign observers emphasizes the international attention and implications of the war, with various powers having their own interests and agendas.

Key Plot Points and Events

• A significant naval battle occurs between the Tsardom of Russia and Japan, with both sides suffering heavy losses.
• The battle results in a stalemate at sea, with both sides having few available warships.
• The Tsardom of Russia's Tsesarevich, a powerful battleship, is nearing completion of repairs, which will give the Pacific Fleet an advantage.
• The British Empire seizes the opportunity to expand in northern India with little international opposition.

Character Developments

• General Makarov, commander of the Pacific Fleet, is satisfied with the naval battle outcome, as it regains the initiative at sea.
• The Japanese leadership faces a dire prospect with the impending repair of the Tsesarevich, which could lead to a blockade of their sea lanes.
• The British Empire, under the leadership of Queen Victoria and her government, takes advantage of the war in the Far East to expand its influence in northern India.

Significant Themes

• The importance of naval power in controlling logistics and maintaining dominance in the Far East.
• The strategic implications of the naval battle stalemate, leading to increased intensity in the land war.
• The opportunistic expansion of the British Empire during the distraction of other major powers.

Character Interactions

• The Tsardom of Russia and Japan engage in a fierce naval battle, with both sides suffering significant losses.
• The British Empire and the United States observe the war in the Far East, hoping for mutual attrition between the Tsardom of Russia and Japan.
• The British Empire interacts with France, taking advantage of its preoccupation with the Triple Alliance and the war in the Far East to expand in northern India with little resistance.

Key Plot Points and Events

• A naval battle results in no clear victor, shifting focus to the land war.
• Russia and Japan request weapons and ammunition from Australia.
• Australia signs arms import orders with both Russia and Japan.
• Russia orders a significant quantity of weapons and ammunition, including CA-1 autocannons.
• Japan orders warships (four Duke-class cruisers and one Brunswick-class battleship) and weapons (thirty thousand Gewehr 98 rifles, forty Maxim heavy machine guns, artillery pieces, and ammunition).
• Arthur issues new currency: the Federation Commemorative Coin (Australian Dollar, shilling, and penny).

Character Developments

• Arthur, as the Australian leader, demonstrates strategic thinking and political acumen by issuing new currency and managing arms deals with Russia and Japan.
• No significant character development for other individuals is mentioned in this chapter.

Significant Themes

• War and its logistical demands, particularly the consumption of weapons and ammunition.
• The establishment of the Commonwealth of Australia and New Zealand, leading to the issuance of new currency.
• The role of Australia as a supplier of advanced weaponry to other nations.

Character Interactions

• Arthur interacts with representatives from Russia and Japan to facilitate arms deals.
• Arthur works with Australian munitions factories and shipyards to produce and deliver ordered weapons and ships.
• Arthur collaborates with the Australian Government to issue new currency.

Key Plot Points and Events

• The new Australian Dollar currency is successfully issued and widely accepted.
• The Commonwealth begins to break free from British economic control.
• The war in the Far East intensifies with more advanced weaponry.
• The Japan's First Army defeats the Tsardom of Russia's East Manchurian Detachment in a brutal land battle.
• The Japan's Second Army faces the Tsardom of Russia's 4th Infantry Division, which is equipped with advanced Australian artillery.
• The Pacific Fleet provides naval gun support to the Russian army, turning the tide of the battle.

Character Developments

• Arthur consolidates power through financial control and the success of the new currency.
• General Makarov demonstrates strategic prowess in using naval guns to support the army.
• General Oshima Yoshimasa underestimates the Russian army's firepower, leading to a costly mistake.

Significant Themes

• The impact of advanced weaponry on warfare.
• The struggle for control and influence in the Far East.
• The role of naval power in supporting land warfare.

Character Interactions

• Arthur's actions strengthen the Royal Family's hold on power in the Commonwealth.
• General Makarov and General Oshima Yoshimasa engage in strategic and tactical decision-making, with Makarov ultimately outmaneuvering his opponent.
• The Russian and Japan armies clash, with both sides suffering heavy casualties.

Key Plot Points and Events

• The Tsardom of Russia avoids the original history's Port Arthur siege due to a naval battle victory.
• The island nation's (Japan's) Second Army suffers heavy losses (over 34,000 casualties) against the Russian Fourth Infantry Division.
• The island nation reinforces its Manchurian Army, reaching over 60,000 troops, and engages the Russian army again, capturing the northern part of Port Arthur.
• The Russian army retreats to the Port Arthur Fortress, establishing a defensive line about 20-30 km outside the city.

Character Developments

• Oshima Yoshimasa, commander of the Second Army, spins a false narrative of victory to maintain his position and receives reinforcements.
• Field Marshal Yamagata becomes the Commander-in-Chief of the Manchurian Army.
• Lieutenant General Stepan Vasilevich Stessel and Lieutenant General Kondratchenko have differing views on defending Port Arthur, with Stessel advocating for a fortress defense and Kondratchenko pushing for an outer defensive line.

Significant Themes

• The impact of technology and firepower on warfare (CA-1 Autocannon, artillery, naval artillery).
• The importance of logistics and supply lines in war.
• The psychological impact of war on soldiers and the role of morale.
• The strategic significance of Port Arthur and the Port Arthur Fortress.

Character Interactions

• Oshima Yoshimasa's subordinates support his false report to maintain his position.
• Stessel and Kondratchenko clash over the best defensive strategy for Port Arthur.
• The Russian soldiers' morale fluctuates based on their perceived chances of victory and survival.

Key Plot Points and Events

• The war in the Far East has become a brutal war of attrition, with both Japan and Russia focusing on capturing Port Arthur.
• The British Empire, the United States, Australia, and the German Empire benefit from this prolonged war due to increased demand for weapons.
• In Australia, Arthur's industrial zone houses a new aviation laboratory dedicated to aircraft research.
• Australia successfully manufactures its first airplane, based on Arthur's sketches of later-generation aircraft, after over a year of research and development.

Character Developments

• Arthur shows interest and support for aviation development, providing resources and guidance.
• Theodor Kobel and Ludwig Dürr, the lead aviation experts, demonstrate dedication and expertise in developing the first Australian airplane.

Significant Themes

• The impact of war on global powers and economies.
• The potential of collective effort and national mobilization in technological advancements (aviation).
• Arthur's influence and vision in shaping Australia's future.

Character Interactions

• Arthur interacts with Theodor Kobel and Ludwig Dürr, expressing satisfaction with their work and asking about the aircraft's capabilities.
• Theodor Kobel explains the aircraft's features and range to Arthur, while Ludwig Dürr prepares to pilot the aircraft.

Key Plot Points and Events

• Ludwig Dürr successfully test flies the first Australian-made airplane, the Pioneer-1.
• The flight tests the airplane's speed, range, and reconnaissance capabilities.
• Arthur envisions three future aircraft concepts: reconnaissance, fighter, and bomber.

Character Developments

• Ludwig Dürr gains confidence and excitement from his first successful flight.
• Theodor Kobel and Ludwig Dürr become more ambitious and determined after Arthur's encouragement.

Significant Themes

• Innovation and progress in aviation.
• The importance of airplanes for Australia's defense and reconnaissance.
• The potential of Australian-made aircraft to lead the world.

Character Interactions

• Arthur encourages and praises Ludwig Dürr and Theodor Kobel, inspiring them to work harder.
• Ludwig Dürr and Theodor Kobel discuss and brainstorm ideas for future aircraft concepts with Arthur.
• Arthur names the three future aircraft series: Eagle, Wild Tiger, and Ghost.

Key Plot Points and Events

• The author announces they won't be updating the story today due to unforeseen circumstances.
• They also mention they've shortened the Russo-Japanese War section, and the next mention of it will likely be when its outcome is decided.
• Future plot points are teased: building airplanes, constructing dreadnoughts, military engagements, and expanding the military.
• The author hints that the kingdom's birth will occur once the domestic situation is stable and the army is stronger.

Character Developments

• No significant character developments occur in this chapter as it's primarily an author's note.

Significant Themes

• Patience and anticipation: The author's note teases future events, encouraging readers to wait for the story's progression.
• Work-life balance: The author takes a day off, implying they have other responsibilities or need a break.

Character Interactions

• The author interacts with readers by thanking them for their support and promising to make up for the missed update with a longer chapter tomorrow.

Key Plot Points and Events

• Arthur meets with Theodor Kobel and Ludwig Dürr to discuss future aircraft types and designations: Eagle series (reconnaissance), Wild Tiger series (fighter), and Ghosts (bomber).
• The development of these aircraft depends on engine improvements and munitions factory advancements.
• Arthur visits the Benz automobile factory, where he learns about the Benzone's remarkable success and profits.
• The global automotive market experiences explosive growth in 1903 and 1904, with Benzone's sales and profits skyrocketing.

Character Developments

• Arthur demonstrates his strategic thinking and long-term vision by investing in the automotive industry and ensuring continuous improvement of the Benzone.
• Theodor Kobel and Ludwig Dürr show understanding and acceptance of the new aircraft classifications and their development process.

Significant Themes

• Technological advancements and their impact on industries (automobiles and aircraft).
• Global market expansion and competition (automotive market).
• Strategic investments and long-term planning (Arthur's approach to the automotive industry).

Character Interactions

• Arthur, Theodor Kobel, and Ludwig Dürr discuss and decide on future aircraft types and designations.
• Arthur interacts with the management of the Benz automobile factory, discussing the car's improvements and sales performance.

Key Plot Points and Events

• Arthur visits the automobile factory to see the progress on the truck prototypes.
• Benz and Diesel, with 10% stakes in their respective factories, are now millionaires due to the factories' profitability.
• The automobile factory, with an annual income of 15 million Pounds Sterling, is the most profitable enterprise for Arthur's Royal Consortium.
• The engine factory, while less profitable, has significant strategic importance due to the widespread use of engines in various machinery.

Character Developments

• Benz and Diesel have become successful entrepreneurs and researchers, contributing significantly to the advancement of their respective fields.
• Arthur is shown to be generous and appreciative of his benefactors, rewarding Benz and Diesel with dividends from the factories.

Significant Themes

• Wealth and its impact on society (Benz's wealth rivals a small nation).
• The importance of strategic industries (Diesel's engine factory).
• The balance between research and management (Benz and Diesel's preference for working under Arthur).

Character Interactions

• Arthur, Benz, and Diesel reunite, expressing their mutual appreciation and respect.
• Arthur inquires about the truck prototypes, showing interest in their development.
• Benz explains the differences between the two truck prototypes, highlighting their advantages and disadvantages.

Key Plot Points and Events

• Arthur approves Benz's designs for two types of trucks: gasoline and diesel engines, to cater to different transportation environments and global markets.
• Trucks undergo successful testing, exceeding theoretical data in carrying capacity and speed.
• Arthur decides to prioritize domestic production of trucks to meet Australia's transportation needs before considering international sales.
• Arthur presents a blueprint for a tractor to Benz and Diesel, requesting its research and production for agricultural improvement.

Character Developments

• Arthur demonstrates strategic thinking, prioritizing Australia's needs and long-term benefits over immediate profits from international sales.
• Benz and Diesel showcase their expertise and dedication to their work, successfully developing and testing the trucks.

Significant Themes

• Industrialization and technological advancement (trucks, tractors)
• National development and self-sufficiency (domestic production, transportation infrastructure)
• Strategic planning and long-term vision (Arthur's decisions, prioritizing Australia's needs)

Character Interactions

• Arthur and Benz discuss the truck designs, testing, and production timeline.
• Arthur presents the tractor blueprint to Benz and Diesel, explaining its importance for Australian agriculture.
• Benz and Diesel express confusion about the tractor design, seeking clarification from Arthur.

Key Plot Points and Events

• The Trans-Siberian Railway's completion allowed Russia to transfer troops from Europe to the Far East, balancing the war.
• Both Russia and Japan increased their troop numbers, reaching over 700,000 combined.
• The war became protracted, with heavy casualties and significant financial strain on both sides.
• Japan's strategy of occupying key areas and pushing north led to the fall of Port Arthur and a series of victories.
• Russia's defeat at Fengtian resulted in a change of command and increased conscription.
• Both sides suffered heavy casualties and financial losses, leading to peace negotiations.

Character Developments

• The Japanese people gained confidence and recognition as a major power after their victories.
• Russian soldiers, particularly conscripts, struggled with fear and lack of training on the battlefield.
• Russian leadership changed, with Marshal Kuropatkin dismissed after the Fengtian defeat.

Significant Themes

• The impact of technology and infrastructure on warfare (Trans-Siberian Railway, artillery, and weaponry).
• The human cost and financial burden of war.
• The role of strategy and tactics in determining victory (Japan's Bushido spirit, Marshal Oyama's strategies).
• The influence of alliances and international relations on the war's outcome.

Character Interactions

• The Japan's Army and Russian Army engaged in fierce battles, with both sides suffering heavy casualties.
• Russia and Japan negotiated with each other and with other powers to end the war.
• Britain, the United States, Germany, France, and Australia played roles as mediators and allies.

Key Plot Points and Events

• The Russo-Japanese War's outcome established Japan as a global power and maintained Russia's Far East influence, drawing both nations' focus to the region.
• The Entente Cordiale between Britain and France was signed, alarming Germany, which responded by instigating the First Moroccan Crisis to counter the alliance.
• The accidental sinking of a British trawler by the Russian fleet strained Britain-Russia relations, pushing Russia closer to Germany.
• Russia's internal turmoil, sparked by the Bloody Sunday incident, increased its desperation for external support.

Character Developments

• Tsar Nicholas II: Struggled to maintain control amidst internal unrest and sought alliances to strengthen Russia's position.
• German Emperor William II: Pursued a proactive foreign policy, aiming to counter the Entente Cordiale and draw Russia into an anti-British alliance.
• Father Gapon: Led the Assembly of St. Petersburg Factory Workers, sparking the Bloody Sunday incident and Russia's internal crisis.

Significant Themes

• Power dynamics and alliances in Europe: The shifting alliances between Britain, France, Germany, and Russia shaped the geopolitical landscape.
• Imperialism and colonial competition: The Moroccan Crisis highlighted the struggle for colonial influence and resources.
• Internal unrest and revolution: The Bloody Sunday incident exposed the growing dissatisfaction among Russian workers and set the stage for further revolutionary events.

Character Interactions

• Russia and Japan: Despite the war, both nations maintained a balance of power in the Far East, each preserving their interests.
• Britain and France: Their alliance, the Entente Cordiale, was a response to Germany's growing power and a resolution of long-standing colonial disputes.
• Germany and Russia: Germany sought to draw Russia into an anti-British alliance, while Russia, facing internal turmoil, was eager to strengthen its ties with Germany.
• The Tsarist government and Russian workers: The Bloody Sunday incident marked a turning point in their relationship, with workers' dissatisfaction growing and their support for the Tsar waning.