Shortcoming

November 2031, Rocket City, Liang Nation

Michael and Daphne were hosting Irene at their home. As soon as they met, Daphne asked with concern, "Andek is gravely ill, why did you come back to Liang Nation? Is he feeling any better?"

"His condition was quite serious at one point, but it has improved and stabilized now. I'm back in Liang Nation because the research project here needs to be wrapped up," Irene said. "Andek is also very concerned about the letter he sent to Michael and asked me to hear Michael's thoughts on his behalf."

Michael felt a bit awkward, thinking to himself, Is Irene here to deliver an ultimatum from the media tycoon?

He said, "I'm very grateful for Andek's concern. His letter moved me deeply. I know he's not doing this for himself."

Irene looked up at Michael, waiting for him to continue. Daphne interjected with a smile, "I know Michael's answer. Guess what? His answer is actually related to another letter you gave him."

"Another letter? Are you talking about Mirov's Maya Notes?" Irene asked.

Daphne excitedly began to tell Irene about the contents of the Maya Notes. Captain Mirov had deeply researched the Maya Calendar and its corresponding planetary conjunction cycles, arriving at a startling conclusion.

The Maya, in addition to their everyday vigual system, had a particular fondness for expressing certain special, aesthetically symmetric numbers in ternary. For example, 13 = (111)₃, the total number of pyramid steps, 364 = (111111)₃, and the least common multiple of the Earth's orbital period and the conjunction periods of Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Saturn with Earth, 7174440 = (111111111111000)₃.

The synodic period of Venus with Earth is 584 days. The greatest common divisor of this value and 365 is 73. 584 / 73 = 8. The Maya considered this coincidence miraculous and recorded 8 as Venus's contribution number on stone tablets. In ternary, 8 = (22)₃ = (1.0-1)₃ = (10T)₃, exhibiting symmetry.

Mirov was inspired by the number 8. He hypothesized that the reason the Maya considered 8 a miraculous and special number might be that they discovered its representation in ternary possessed a symmetry even more profound than the repeated symmetry of three 1s, six 1s, or twelve 1s.

Are two 2s more elegant in form than three 1s? Clearly not, as they are both simple repetitions and identical in logical form.

Then what is special about 8? It's because in ternary, there are only three symbols: 1, 0, and -1 (represented as T). The number 8 perfectly utilizes all three symbols and is in a centrally symmetric form: 8 = (10T)₃.

Any integer n can be represented in any base. Generally, if the base is a positive integer b, and the number of digits is m, then n = ∑ a * b^m, where a ranges from 0 to (b-1) and m ranges from 0 to m-1.

Since (b-1) mod b is equal to -1, 9 in decimal can be defined as -1, and -1 in base 20 is 19. When b = 3, i.e., in ternary, b-1 = 2. The value 2 is then defined as -1.

Under this convention, ternary uses only 1, 0, and -1, and is called symmetric (balanced) ternary. In computers, when using symmetric ternary, since -1 is represented by two characters, the letter "T" is conventionally used.

8 = (22)₃ = (1.0-1)₃ = (10T)₃. From this, it can be seen that 8 is the most comprehensive and concise, higher-order symmetric form in ternary, encompassing all three symbols: 1, 0, and -1.

Irene was somewhat bewildered by the explanation. It's so complicated. Aren't binary's 0 and 1 simpler? Why introduce -1?

Michael suddenly asked out of the blue, "Irene, we're having a gathering next Wednesday evening. Can you make it?"

Irene was momentarily confused by the question. She thought about her schedule. Today was only Tuesday, and her schedule for next week hadn't been finalized yet.

While thinking, she replied, "I'd love to attend your gathering, but I'm not sure if I can make it."

Michael and Daphne exchanged a smile. He said to Irene, "My question and your answer are extremely common in daily life. They stem from the human brain's thought patterns. When you input a question into the brain, the answer isn't just yes or no. In many cases, there's a third answer: uncertain."

Irene suddenly understood. "In symmetric ternary, 1 represents yes, T represents no, and 0 represents uncertain. This way of judging clearly aligns better with the human brain. In fact, in my genetic engineering research, there are too many uncertain situations, I just never thought of using ternary before."

Daphne answered Irene's underlying question on Michael's behalf, "Men with dreams are always persistent. At first, I was very worried that Michael would give a negative answer when Andek persuaded him to abandon the Mars terraforming plan. Fortunately, his answer now is uncertain."

Irene pressed further, "My answer about whether I can attend the gathering next Wednesday is currently uncertain, but I will give a definite yes or no in a few days. You won't remain uncertain about whether to proceed with or abandon the Mars terraforming plan forever, will you?"

Michael said with slight seriousness, "Transforming Mars into Earth's 'backup' will be a monumental feat for humanity, bringing immeasurable benefits, but it also comes with risks. I plan to upgrade the computers to ternary and conduct a simulation experiment with immense computing power. Once the results are out, I'll be able to make a decision."

Irene remembered Andek's instructions before she left. "We only have one Earth. Andek reminded you that even with a one-in-a-million risk, we cannot build so-called Superlight Wave Power Stations. No matter how good a simulation experiment is, it can't yield a zero-risk conclusion, can it?"

Michael thought for a moment and gave an example, "Humanity has witnessed the harm caused by atomic bombs, but nuclear power is a clean energy source. Should we build nuclear power plants? The risks of nuclear power plants aren't just theoretical; nuclear disasters have happened in reality. Yet, to this day, hundreds of nuclear power plants are still operating on Earth."

All three fell silent. It seemed that persuading each other was not easy, and the conversation naturally shifted to ternary computers.

In the 1970s, the Former Soviet Union halted research and development on ternary computers. They lacked funds and a complete industrial chain. Most importantly, the equipment and applications for Liang Nation and European binary computers were not blockaded against the Former Soviet Union.

The Former Soviets realized that since they could buy what they needed, the cost and expenses would be far lower than the enormous investment required to build their own ternary system. Why not?

Meanwhile, the computer industry, based on binary, developed rapidly. Transistors replaced vacuum tubes, integrated circuit density per unit area increased, and computing speed grew exponentially. Moore's Law, measured in years or even half-years, inexplicably persisted for decades.

Storage, computation, transmission, and packaging technologies advanced rapidly, with new materials and processes emerging constantly. The internet, mobile internet, large AI models, AGI, and intelligent robots, along with various other intelligent devices, took turns on the stage, driving an ever-increasing demand for computing power.

Finally, Moore's Law approached its physical limit. After integrated circuit widths shrunk from tens of nanometers to a few nanometers, existing processes could no longer support denser arrangements.

Large AI models began to consume humanity's already insufficient power resources like a gaping maw.

Low-energy, power-saving computing solutions were put on the agenda, and ternary architecture once again became a focus of research.

Theoretically, to achieve the same computational capability per unit area, the integrated circuit density under a ternary architecture is lower than in binary, offering a clear advantage in low power consumption. Conversely, under the same integrated circuit density, the computational speed of a ternary architecture is higher than binary.

However, a ternary architecture must be built from scratch. In addition to significant extra investment, many difficulties arise. The first bottleneck for ternary architecture is component material issues.

The technological routes for ternary-based components are diverse, but they can be broadly categorized into two main types.

One type utilizes carbon nanotubes. Under nanoscale manipulation, different layered diameters can output high, medium, and low stable voltages, representing states 1, 0, and -1 respectively. This is known as the "tube diameter method."

The other technological route involves stacking three different metals and oxides, such as lithium metal, lithium phosphate, and nickel metal, each outputting a different voltage to represent the three different states. This is called the "stacking method."

Both of the above methods can significantly reduce power consumption and increase computing speed. The conversion between the three input and output voltages in each method is reversible and repeatable, which is a necessary condition for ternary computer components.

Ternary architecture has a clear advantage in low power consumption, achieving the goal of saving electricity. However, large AI models consume not only a lot of electricity but also a lot of water.

In many countries and regions, water resources are even scarcer than power resources.

As the density of integrated circuit arrangement reaches the atomic scale, heat dissipation becomes a major problem in the production and operation of nanoscale integrated circuit chips.

Traditional fans are no longer sufficient. Clever engineers have begun immersing entire circuit boards in special "water" and using circulating water for cooling, a method known as "immersion cooling."

How can water be saved?

In the wave of electronic information, transistor technology has continuously advanced. The first generation of transistors was silicon, the second was gallium arsenide, and the third is silicon carbide.

New technological demands and new materials often mutually foster and accompany each other. Sometimes, it can be awkward: a new material is invented, but there's no application demand, while for some application demands, no suitable material can be found.

For a long time in the development of the computer industry, the demand for high-temperature resistant material components was not very strong.

This is both a question of cost and the necessity of application scenarios. No one bakes computers on a fire, so what's the use of high-temperature resistance?

In the decades following the mid-20th century, the Former Soviet Union attempted to launch probes to Venus more than twenty times, with almost none successfully transmitting signals. This was because the high temperature and pressure on Venus's surface exceed 400 degrees Celsius, hot enough to burn out and disable any existing electrical equipment from Earth.

New demands call for new materials. Silicon carbide is a material that possesses high-temperature resistance, low electrical resistance, high hardness, and strong stability. Components made from silicon carbide can withstand temperatures of up to 500 degrees Celsius.

Almost all electrical equipment used by the Bright Country Space Administration on its upcoming Venus probe has been replaced with silicon carbide components.

Daphne, aware of the details of the new Venus probes, said to Michael, "Your idea goes beyond just Venus probes; you intend to use silicon carbide components extensively in the production and operation of computers as well, to resist high temperatures, reduce the need for heat dissipation, and achieve water conservation."

Michael smiled mysteriously and said, "If the components can withstand high temperatures, we can switch back from water cooling to air cooling. That won't just save water; it means we won't need water at all."

"Ah? How did you come up with that? It seems that the path of innovation requires not only scientists but also strategists who can lead the way!" Daphne exclaimed.

&

Poem:

No need to compare with silk, Tang Dynasty, Du Fu

This stone is fortunate to surpass it. Song Dynasty, Xin Qiji

Before, I had never visited, Song Dynasty, Huang Shumei

One's actions and whereabouts are valuable when timely. Qing Dynasty, Jiang Zaiheng