Monday, March 12th.
New York.
Tesla opened at 285 US Dollar, which is nearly 5 US Dollar higher than the closing price of Friday.
Over the past two days over the weekend, market speculation about "mysterious buyers" continued to ferment.
After Friday closed, Bloomberg published another analysis article titled "Who is continuing to buy Tesla?".
The article lists three possibilities:
The first is "Era Vanguard" - the fund that made 8 billion US Dollar on Bitcoin. It has opened a position of 9 million shares in January, and its operating pattern in the past two weeks is highly consistent with January;
Second, it is Saudi Sovereign Fund - the Saudi Public Investment Fund expressed interest in Tesla at the end of last year, but has made no substantive action;
Third, it is Tesla insiders - Elon Musk himself or his related parties who are increasing their holdings, but Elon Musk's last public statement was in January, and there has been no record of buying since then.
The article does not give a conclusion, but the last paragraph is meaningful:
"No matter who it is, this person is doing something Wall Street that no one dares to do - keep buying when everyone is selling Tesla."
CNBC's morning show also spent a full fifteen minutes discussing the topic.
The host Carl Quintanilla invited three guests into the studio, one was bullish, one was bearish, and one was sitting on the fence.
A bullish analyst said, "This buyer's judgment has been proven by Bitcoin.
He cleared his position at 17000 US Dollar and escaped from the top accurately. If he bought Tesla at 270 US Dollar, it must be that he saw something that others could not see."
The bearish analyst retorted, "Bitcoin and Tesla are two different things. Bitcoin is speculation, and Tesla is Fundamentals investment."
The production capacity problem is there, the cash flow problem is there, and it cannot be solved by just buying more."
The guest sitting on the fence to smooth things over:
"Let's wait until it is disclosed. If this buyer increases his holdings to 10%, he will have to submit Form 13D, and everything will be known by then."
Zhao Chen stood in front of the hotel screen and watched Tesla's stock price rush all the way to 292 US Dollar within half an hour after the market opened.
The integer mark of 300 US Dollar is right in front of you.
Zhang Qingxue's fingers hovered above the keyboard, waiting for his order.
"Place a limit order, below 295." Zhao Chen said.
Zhang Qingxue entered the command.
But the stock price stopped at 292 US Dollar.
Selling orders suddenly poured out, not scattered retail selling orders, but neat institutional selling orders, suppressed layer by layer.
292,291,290,289.
Within ten minutes, the stock price dropped back to 289 US Dollar.
Short Sellers deployed heavy troops at the 300 US Dollar pass.
They don't know who the buyer is, but they know that they can't let market sentiment reverse at this position.
If Tesla breaks through 300 US Dollar, those waiting and watching funds will rush in, and Short Sellers's position will collapse across the board.
Zhao Chen stared at the screen without speaking.
I made two more moves in the morning, reaching a maximum of 293.
But it got knocked down every time.
The intensity of selling is getting stronger every time, as if someone is deliberately holding this line.
At the close, Tesla closed at 289 US Dollar.
The amplitude throughout the day is 8 US Dollar, Trading Volume, which is 30% larger than Friday.
Era Vanguard didn't buy one share today.
Zhao Chen stood in front of the window, looking at the night view of Manhattan, and was silent for a long time.
Zhang Qingxue and Su Wantang were sitting on the sofa, neither of them speaking.
"Let's do this for today and continue tomorrow." Zhao Chen said.
Tuesday, March 13th.
Before the market opened, Tesla was quoted at 287 US Dollar, which was 2 US Dollar lower than yesterday's closing price.
The market sentiment was obviously much more cautious than the previous day.
After the failure of the attack on 300 US Dollar on Monday, the momentum of the bulls was dampened a lot.
In CNBC's morning commentary, the bearish analyst sounded even more determined:
"Did you see it? 300 US Dollar is the ceiling. If the production capacity problem is not solved, Tesla will never reach 300."
But some people also noticed another detail.
Options analysts of Bloomberg wrote in the morning report:
"In the past three trading days, Put Option Open Interest of Tesla has increased significantly, but Open Interest of Call Options has also risen quietly.
Someone is buying Out-of-the-Money Call Options, Strike Price 350 US Dollar, which will expire in January next year. This is not an operation by retail investors."
Zhang Qingxue read this message to Zhao Chen before the market opened.
Zhao Chen thought for a while and said, "Someone is following our lead. It's not buying Common Stock, it's buying Options."
They are betting that the stock price will rise, but they dare not take a heavy position in Common Stock."
Su Wantang asked, "Is this a good thing or a bad thing?"
Zhao Chen said, "Neutral. Options Some people in the market are following suit, which shows that the sentiment is slowly turning.
But what they bought was Out-of-the-Money Options, not Common Stock, which shows that their confidence is not strong enough.
When they start buying Common Stock, it will be a real reversal."
At 9:30 in the morning, US Stocks opened.
Tesla opened at 287 US Dollar, which was slightly lower than before the market.
After the market opened, the stock price fluctuated between 288 and 290 for an hour, unable to go up or down.
The defense line of Short Sellers is still strong, but there are more Buying Pressure bulls than the previous day.
It's not Era Vanguard - Zhao Chen hasn't taken action yet - it's some scattered institutions footing the bill. The amount is not large, but it's more than before.
At half past ten, Zhao Chen said to Zhang Qingxue:
"Start buying. Below 282, place orders in batches."
Zhang Qingxue entered the first instruction:
200,000 shares, price limit 282 US Dollar. Transaction, average price 281.5 US Dollar.
The stock price was pushed from 282 to 282.5, but selling orders immediately came out, pushing the price back to 281.5.
The second tranche: 200,000 shares, price limit 281 US Dollar.
Transaction, average price 280.8 US Dollar.
The stock price briefly rebounded to 281, then fell again.
The third transaction: 100,000 shares, price limit 280 US Dollar. Transaction, average price 279.6 US Dollar.
500,000 shares were purchased throughout the day, with an average price of 281 US Dollar.
But these 500,000 shares were thrown into the market, like pebbles thrown into the sea, without causing any waves.
At the close, Tesla closed at 282 US Dollar, down 7 US Dollar from the previous day.
Zhao Chen frowned.
It wasn't because he lost money, it was because he realized one thing - his Buying Pressure had less influence on the market than he thought.
He didn't buy it on Monday, and the stock price fell.
He bought 500,000 shares on Tuesday, but the stock price still fell.
This shows that the dominance of the market is still in the hands of Short Sellers.
His 500,000 shares cannot support the sentiment of the entire market.
After the market closed, the Wall Street Journal posted an article titled "Tesla's Mysterious Buyer: Power or Illusion?".
The article reads, "In the past few trading days, a mysterious buyer has continued to buy Tesla shares, accumulating a total of more than 4 million shares.
But Tesla's stock price is still hovering around 280 US Dollar, which is far lower than the high in January.
The power of this buyer seems to be underestimated by the market - or overestimated."
The comment section below the article was full of quarrels.
Some people say that the buyer is "Era Vanguard", others say not.
Some people say it is the Saudi fund, while others say it is the secret account of Elon Musk.
Someone ridiculed. "No matter who it is, he is catching throwing knives."
Others retorted:
"In January you also said that 'Era Vanguard' was catching flying knives, but they didn't sell one share when it was 360 US Dollar, and now they continue to buy when it drops to 280.
Tell me, is this called catching a flying knife?"
Zhao Chen After reading this article, I put my phone on the coffee table.
He was not angry or anxious.
He was thinking about one thing - what is the market waiting for?