"Management changes are another catalyst."
Chen Xi points to a line of words,
"On April 9, the company appointed An Yuanzhi as general manager, and Li Yinglin will serve as Shunxin Agriculture Chairman.
The Shunxin Group level has reported the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission State-owned Assets Operating Company plan. After adjustment, it may be operated at the Shunxin Group level, with great autonomy.
Investment, mergers and acquisitions, and equity incentive authority will all be delegated.
This plan involves employee stock ownership, mixed-ownership reform, market-oriented operations and incentives, and management stock ownership will be considered."
Zhao Chen nodded.
The expectation of state-owned enterprise reform is another important value anchor for Shunxin Agriculture.
If the plan is implemented, the system of this old state-owned enterprise will undergo fundamental changes.
Su Wantang on the side said softly:
"Chen Xi also made a summary table of brokerage opinions last night. I got it for you."
She placed a piece of A4 paper in front of Zhao Chen, with the neat handwriting of Chen Xi on it.
Zhao Chen took the A4 paper, with the neat handwriting of Chen Xi on it.
Dongxing Securities: Strongly recommended, the net profit is expected to be 5.77/8.21/1.124 billion yuan from 2018 to 2020, and the target price is 33.4 yuan.
Guosen Securities: Buy, it is expected that Net Profit Attributable to Parent will be 5.77/781/996 million yuan in 18-20 years.
BOCI: Buy, Volkswagen wine king, Baijiu long-distance running champion.
Zhōngtài Securities: Buy, the performance is accelerating, and the market value is still undervalued.
Zhao Chen read the entire form and was silent for a few seconds.
Then he laughed.
"Five brokerages, four of them give buy or strong recommendation. The target price ranges from 33 yuan to 56 yuan. Our current position cost is 18.17 yuan."
Chen Xi nodded.
"Moreover, the data for this quarterly report was only released on April 28.
We started to build a position on April 9. After the market digests this quarterly report, the stock price will not be the same as yesterday.
With the May Day holiday, Shunxin Agriculture will most likely open higher."
Zhao Chen leaned on the back of the chair and looked through the window at the Yangtze River in the distance.
The sunlight reflects off the river and shines into the office, casting a swaying light and shadow on the wall.
He remembered when Chen Xi first put Shunxin Agriculture's research report on his desk more than a month ago.
That report was full of estimated data from brokerage surveys and channel feedback--
There is no audited Financial Data, no official seal announcement, only words like "market expectations", "channel research" and "our estimates".
At that time, all data were guesses and all judgments were predictions.
He asked Chen Xi to shop for goods below 18 yuan, and put 500 million in funds on these guesses and predictions.
Now, the number Financial Report has landed.
All speculations turned into facts.
Chen Xi turned over a page in his notebook and added:
"Zhao Zong, there is one more thing. Shunxin Agriculture's first quarter report disclosed the top ten Major Shareholder list.
We hold nearly 5% of the shares and appear in the top ten Major Shareholder in order of shareholding ratio.
The name Henglong Capital appeared for the first time in the announcement of Listed Company."
Zhao Chen's fingers paused on the table for a moment. He thought for a moment, and then smiled.
"Sooner or later we will meet. Henglong has invested so much Listed Company's shares, so we can't hide behind it forever.
This time it appears in Shunxin Agriculture's ten Major Shareholder, just right.
The market will see that Henglong Capital is an investment institution with strength and research capabilities.
This will be beneficial to our future investment layout."
Su Wantang said softly next to him:
"Then will the market ask about our investment logic? After all, we opened a position before the first quarter report came out, and the timing was too good."
Zhao Chen shook his head.
"No need to explain. We are just optimistic about Shunxin Agriculture, so we bought it.
The data in the first quarter report verified our judgment and showed that our research capabilities are good.
The market will only say that our vision is correct and will not say anything else."
Chen Xi closed the notebook and looked at Zhao Chen.
"Zhao Zong, then after the market digests this Financial Report, the stock price will rise. Our floating profit will turn into real profit."
Zhao Chen looked at her and suddenly asked:
"Chen Xi, how high do you think Shunxin Agriculture's stock price will rise after this quarterly report is released?"
Chen Xi thought for a while.
"The target price of the brokerage is 33 to 56 yuan. Our cost is 18.2 yuan. Yesterday's closing price was 24.05, and the floating profit was close to 200 million.
Henglong Capital was able to contribute 200 million in floating profits to the company in less than a month after its establishment. This account is easier to calculate than anything else."
Zhao Chen nodded.
Chen Xi is right.
Henglong Capital is the symbol of Henglong's transformation.
If Henglong Capital can produce outstanding performance in the first month after its establishment, Board of Directors will have more trust in Henglong Capital's investment strategy, and Minor Shareholder will also have more confidence.
Shunxin Agriculture's quarterly report is his answer to everyone.
This is also one of the best ways for him to give answers quickly.
He stood up, picked up the cup of cold tea, took a sip, and then put it down.
"Chen Xi, May Day closed after the false opening, staring at the stock price of Shunxin Agriculture.
Although our positions are sufficient, we still need to pay due attention.
If Market Reaction is flat or even drops, don't panic.
The data from the first quarter report are here, and sooner or later the stock price will reflect the company's value."
Chen Xi nodded. "Understood. I will follow the stock price changes and the latest opinions of brokers every day."
She paused and then said:
"Zhao Zong, there is one more thing.
Shunxin Agriculture's Baijiu business accounted for 80% in the first quarter, and the company is transforming from 'Baijiu + pork' to 'Baijiu mainly'.
Brokerages generally believe that the Real Estate business will be divested in the next step.
If the divestment is successful, the company's valuation logic will completely change.
The market will no longer regard it as a 'Baijiu company delayed by pig farming and real estate', but will directly give it a Baijiu valuation."
Zhao Chen smiled. "Do you know what Baijiu's valuation is?"
Chen Xi thought for a while.
"Maotai 30 times PE, Wuliangye 25 times, Luzhou Laojiao 28 times.
Even if Shunxin Agriculture is given 20 times PE, based on the predicted net profit of 577 million in 2018, the market value will still be 11.5 billion.
Including the residual value of the meat products and real estate businesses, the reasonable market value should be between 13 billion and 15 billion.
However, if the market is over-hyped in the short term, causing the stock price to rise rapidly and exceed the reasonable market value, should we reduce our holdings?"
Zhao Chen looked at her and was silent for two seconds.
"Chen Xi, your current level has surpassed that of many brokerage analysts."
Chen Xi was stunned for a moment and his face turned slightly red. "Zhao Zong, don't praise me."
Zhao Chen said seriously.
"I won't hide it from you two. To be honest, I don't intend to hold the stock Shunxin Agriculture for a long time.
I originally bought it because I was certain that the quarterly results would be very impressive.
If there is irrational speculation in the stock price in the short term and the market value deviates too far from the reasonable valuation range, you can directly clear the position.
When we Secondary Market buy stocks, we will have to sell them sooner or later."
Chen Xi thought for a while and asked again.
"Set the profit-taking price above 40 yuan, do you think it's okay?"
Zhao Chen tapped his fingers lightly on the desk.
"The price is okay. At this position, there won't be much room for upside.
Just do as you said, if it exceeds 40 yuan, sell decisively."
Chen Xi nodded and walked out holding the file.
Su Wantang followed her, and when he reached the door, he looked back at Zhao Chen.
There was something inexplicable in her eyes -
It's not relief, it's not pride, it's a sense of certainty that "look, the person you chose is right."
Zhao Chen is sitting alone in the office, leaning on the back of the chair.
The Shan City outside the window looks a little blurry in the afternoon sun, and the fog has not completely dissipated.
But he knew that the fog would soon dissipate.
Just like the value of Shunxin Agriculture, the market will see it clearly sooner or later.
He opened the notebook and wrote a line next to the page Shunxin Agriculture:
On April 28, the first quarter report verified the judgment.
Next, let's see how Secondary Market responds to this almost perfect quarterly report.