On the evening of October 25, Shanxi Fenjiu released its third quarter report for 2018.
Chen Xi came across this announcement through Trading Room.
She pulled up the content and watched it with Su Wantang.
In the first three quarters, Fenjiu achieved operating income of 6.915 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.41%;
The net profit attributable to Listed Company shareholders was 1.264 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.89%.
Looking at the third quarter alone, revenue was 1.874 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.58%;
Net profit was 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 60%.
Su Wantang said this after reading:
"The growth rate is pretty good, not much worse than what brokers expected."
Chen Xi nodded and wrote down a few lines in his notebook.
Fenjiu's Financial Report did not exceed market expectations, nor was it lower than expectations - it was quite satisfactory, neither good nor bad.
Although the growth rate has slowed down compared to the first half of the year, it is still outstanding in the entire Baijiu Industry.
Operating cash flow has dropped significantly and accounts received in advance have decreased. These hidden concerns have been repeatedly discussed in brokerage research reports, and the market has long expected them.
The next day, October 26, the stock price of Fenjiu opened at 41.5 yuan. After opening slightly lower, it fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day and closed slightly lower.
The discussion in Stock Bar is also tepid.
Some people say "the growth rate has slowed down, but it is still within expectations", some people say "the decline in cash flow is a hidden danger", and some people say "wait for Moutai's quarterly report to come out".
There was no panic, no carnival, everything was as calm as if nothing had happened.
Chen Xi There is no action this day.
She is waiting.
She knew that Fenjiu and Q3 Report were just appetizers.
The real main dish is Moutai.
Moutai's Q3 Report is the key to determining the direction of the Baijiu sector - if Moutai's performance exceeds expectations, the entire sector will move upward;
If it is lower than expected, the entire sector will be hit by sentiment.
And what she was waiting for was the pit.
October 28, Sunday, evening.
Moutai's Q3 Report is finally out.
Chen Xi was reading a book at home when he received the announcement push.
She put down the book, opened her laptop, read the announcement from beginning to end, and then leaned back in her chair.
Guizhou Moutai The core data of Q3 Report in 2018:
In the first three quarters, operating income was 52.242 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.07%;
Net profit attributable to Listed Company shareholders was 24.734 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.77%.
Looking at the first three quarters, the growth rate remains steady.
But the problem lies in the third quarter.
Moutai's third quarter revenue was 18.845 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 3.2%;
Net Profit Attributable to Parent 8.969 billion, with the year-on-year growth rate plummeting to 2.71%.
In the second quarter, Moutai's revenue and net profit growth rates were as high as 45.56% and 41.53% respectively.
Within one quarter, growth dropped from over 40% to less than 3%.
Chen Xi picked up the phone and turned to the WeChat dialog box of Zhao Chen. He hesitated for a few seconds and did not send a message.
She knew that Zhao Chen didn't need her to remind him - he knew what this Financial Report meant better than she did.
On Snowball, it went viral immediately after the news spread.
"Moutai's net profit growth rate in the third quarter was only 2.7%? This is not a white horse stock, this is a dead horse stock."
"Revenue increased by 3.2% and profit increased by 2.7%. What's wrong with Moutai? It can't be sold?"
"In the third quarter of last year, Moutai's revenue and net profit growth exceeded 60%, but this year it fell directly to single digits.
This gap will definitely collapse when the market opens tomorrow."
"The performance of White Horse stocks has been falsified, and the Baijiu sector is going to be bloodbathed."
Monday, October 29th.
Moutai opened at the lower limit price of 549.09 yuan, falling directly below the 600 yuan mark.
The closing orders on the lower limit board are densely packed, and the selling pressure is tight.
More than 76,000 orders were sealed, and based on 549.09 yuan, the amount of orders closed exceeded 4 billion yuan.
The market value evaporated by more than 76 billion yuan in one day.
This is the first one-word limit drop in the history of Moutai.
Baijiu sector collapsed across the board.
Wuliangye lower limit, Yanghe Shares lower limit, Gujing Liquor lower limit, Shuijingfang lower limit, Kouzai Cellar lower limit, Shunxin Agriculture lower limit.
Of the 19 stocks in Shenwan Baijiu Sector, 10 exceeded the limit, and CSI Baijiu Industry Index fell as much as 9.53% that day.
The entire sector has lost hundreds of billions of market value.
Fenjiu was naturally not spared.
At 9:30 in the morning, Fenjiu opened at the limit price of 31.7 yuan.
31.7 yuan - a price that is nearly 40% lower than the initial investment cost of 52 yuan for Huarun.
Counting from the high of 67 yuan at the beginning of the year, Fenjiu's share price has been cut in half.
There are layers of closing orders on the lower limit board, with more than 50,000 selling orders. Calculated at 31.7 yuan, the closing order amount is nearly 160 million yuan.
At nine-thirty in the morning, Chen Xi was sitting in Trading Room, staring at Fenjiu Time-sharing Chart on the screen.
She was stunned for a moment by the lower limit price of 31.7 yuan - this price was nearly 40% lower than Huarun's investment cost of 52 yuan at the beginning of the year.
Huarun spent 5.16 billion, holding 11.45% of the shares, and the cost per share was about 52 yuan.
Now, the stock price of Fenjiu is only 31.7 yuan, which is nearly 20 yuan lower than the cost of Huarun.
Huarun lost nearly 40%, which is a real gold pit.
Chen Xi was in no hurry to take action.
She is waiting.
Instead of waiting for the stock price to stabilize, wait for an increase in closing orders.
The price limit of Moutai is driven by emotions - the market overreacted to the cliff-like decline in Moutai's growth rate in the third quarter.
The brand power of Moutai has not changed, the supply and demand relationship of Moutai has not changed, and the annual performance target of Moutai has not changed.
What has changed is only market expectations.
When the expectation changes from "high growth" to "low growth", the stock price will hit a hole.
And this pit is the opportunity she wants.
Fenjiu was brought down by Moutai's emotions, Fundamentals had no problem at all.
In the first three quarters, revenue increased by 42% and net profit increased by 57%, ranking among the top in the Baijiu sector.
Buying such a company at the price limit is not about bargain hunting, but about making money.
Su Wantang stood behind Chen Xi, staring at the changes in the cover sheet on the screen.
She occasionally glanced at the capital schedule to confirm that the cash on Henglong Capital's account was enough to cover today's buying plan.
It's very quiet in Trading Room, with only the low hum of the air conditioner and the occasional keyboard typing.
At 9:45, Fenjiu's lower limit order increased from 50,000 lots to 200,000 lots.
Some people are tentatively buying, but not with much force.
Chen Xi placed a buy order of 5,000 lots and the transaction was completed instantly.
Chen Xi continues to place orders.
Keep making deals and placing orders.
At 10:30, the closing order fell below 100,000 lots.
At eleven o'clock, the closing order dropped to 30,000 lots.
Chen Xi has placed and executed a total of 100,000 buy orders.
As trading opened in the afternoon, the intensity of selling began to weaken.
The peak period of Panic Selling has passed. Those retail investors who lined up to sell at the lower limit saw that the order closures were gradually decreasing, and some began to withdraw their orders and wait and see.
Chen Xi seized the opportunity and increased buying intensity.
She placed a buy order of 10,000 lots and directly consumed a considerable portion of the selling orders on the lower limit.
At 1:30, the closing order fell below 20,000 lots.
The stock price of Fenjiu began to rise slightly from the lower limit - 31.7 yuan, 31.8 yuan, 32.0 yuan.
At two o'clock sharp, Fen Liquor's lower limit was completely opened.
The stock price was pulled to 32.5 yuan in an instant, and then fell back, but never returned to the lower limit.
The trading volume throughout the day increased several times compared with the previous trading day, and the buy orders of Henglong Capital accounted for a considerable part of it.
At the close, Fen Liquor closed at 32.8 yuan, with the decline narrowing from 9.99% to about 7%.
The lower limit was opened, but it was not opened by market sentiment - it was opened by the buy order of Chen Xi.
The price of 31.7 yuan is 20 yuan lower than the investment cost of Huarun, and more than halved from the high point at the beginning of the year.
When buying at this position, the margin of safety is thick enough and the odds are high enough.
Chen Xi There is no need to wait until tomorrow, today is the best time to buy.