After the leverage was cleared and the safety pad was settled, Chen Qiming and Zhang Qingxue left the office one after another.
Chen Xi packed up her laptop and was about to get up when Zhao Chen stopped her.
"You stay here for a moment. There is one more thing."
Chen Xi sat back on the sofa and turned on the laptop.
She thought that what Zhao Chen was asking about was the specific operating strategy for A-shares next year, and had already prepared updates to the valuation models of Bidia and Wuliangye in advance.
But Zhao Chen pulled out a blank A4 paper from the drawer under the coffee table and spread it on the coffee table.
Use a pencil to draw a circle in the center of the paper, and write two words in the circle: Henglong.
"What I just talked about is defense--Controlling Shareholder leverage clearing, Cash Reserves, credit limit,
These three things are for the worst case scenario. Now let's talk about offense."
He drew six lines with his pencil from the inside of the circle, and wrote the name of a plate at the end of each line--
Consumer Healthcare, New Energy complete vehicle and battery, Baijiu, Energy Storage Materials, Designer Toys consumption, Live Pigs breeding.
The six sectors radiate outward from the center of Henglong like six spokes, covering all the current core positions of Henglong Capital.
"The assets currently held by Henglong appear to be scattered in completely different industries--
Medical, automobile, Baijiu, Energy Storage, Designer Toys, pig raising.
With cross-industry diversification to this extent, many investment institutions will consider this a lack of focus. What do you think?"
Chen Xi closed the laptop and realized that Zhao Chen was not here to hear the valuation Model today.
He is here to sort out the underlying logic.
"On the surface, they are six completely different tracks, but the underlying logic is highly unified.
Tongce Medical and Pianzaihuang are the trend of consumption upgrading and aging.
Bidiya is the replacement of New Energy plus technical iteration.
Fenjiu and Wuliangye are consumer upgrades plus brand premium.
Green Energy Technology is energy transformation plus technical barriers.
Bubble Mary is the whole industrial chain of emotional consumption plus IP.
Yunnan Agriculture is a large-scale replacement at the bottom of the cycle.
Each of these six sections is a track with long slopes and thick snow.
Each of them has room for growth of more than ten years."
She pointed at the six lines one by one,
"And Henglong opened positions in each sector at the bottom of the industry's coldest cycle--
In 2018, Baijiu entered the market when it fell to the limit. Bidiya was affected by the subsidy reduction and took a heavy position when the stock price fell to the bottom.
Green Energy Technology invested when it only had laboratory data. Henglong never pursues hot spots."
Zhao Chen used a pencil to draw a horizontal line under the words "Build a position at the bottom of the cycle".
"This is the core of Henglong's investment methodology.
Don't chase hot spots or trends, only enter the market when the industry is at its coldest, and buy the best assets at the cheapest price.
This methodology has proven effective over the past few years.
The question is, can it continue to be effective in the next few years?"
"Yes." Chen Xi answered without hesitation.
"The underlying logic of this methodology is not timing selection, but value discovery.
As long as there is irrational panic in the market,
As long as High-Quality Assets will be killed by mistake during the industry trough, this methodology will always be effective.
But the premise is that we must lock in advance which tracks are worth entering at the bottom of the next cycle."
Zhao Chen Put the pencil on the paper and lean back on the sofa.
"You're on to the point.
What I want to discuss with you today is which tracks Henglong should focus on in the next three years.
It's not about buying now, it's about researching and locking in advance.
When the bottom of the next cycle appears, enter the market as quickly as possible."
He picked up the pencil and drew a downward arrow next to "New Energy Complete Vehicle and Battery".
"Bidiya, the holding cost is low enough, continue to hold it.
But that doesn't mean we just have to sit there.
Bidiya and Blade Battery will be officially mass-produced next year. After mass production, the entire competitive landscape of power batteries will be rewritten.
The cost advantage may be further expanded.
At the same time, the vehicle model cycle of Bidiya has also reached a critical node.
My judgment is that in the next two to three years,
New Energy track will undergo a round of transformation from policy-driven to market-driven.
This round of transformation will eliminate a group of companies that rely on subsidies, and the remaining leaders will enjoy a larger market share.
What Henglong wants to do is, in this transformation process,
Continue to hold Bidiya and pay close attention to investment opportunities upstream and downstream of the industry chain."
He drew a second arrow next to "Energy Storage Materials".
"Green Energy Technology, Thousand-Ton Line have reached full production, Series C is valued at over five billion US Dollar.
But the competition in Energy Storage Materials will become increasingly fierce in the next two to three years.
There are at least five to eight teams in China doing similar research and development of Thermal Storage Material.
What Green Energy Technology is now leading is the technical barrier and the credit endorsement of Tesla Supply Chain.
But whether the lead can be maintained depends on the speed of Capacity Ramp-Up and the stability of Yield Rate.
Henglong does not interfere in operations, but can help Zhou Bingcheng connect with more industrial resources through its shareholder status.
Help him stabilize Supply Chain and lift Yield Rate up."
He moved the pencil next to "Consumer Healthcare".
"Tongce Medical and Pianzaihuang, these two tickets are for long slopes with thick snow.
The logic of the expansion of dental chains and the upgrading of traditional Chinese medicine consumption has not changed.
There is only one strategy for these two stocks - continue to hold them and not make swings."
Move the pencil next to "Baijiu". "Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Baijiu are not over yet."
The wholesale price of Moutai is still going up, and the performance growth rate of Wuliangye and Fenjiu will most likely have a low base effect next year.
The position of Baijiu is temporarily unchanged."
He moved the pencil next to "Designer Toys Consumption."
Bubble Mary has only been on the market for half a month and has a lock-up period of six months.
Wang An's IP matrix is still expanding, Mololoy will have four new series next year, and Labobo's global licensing has just started.
The endgame of Bubble Mary is not to sell Blind Boxes, but the entire IP industry chain.
Henglong's strategy is to lock in long-term value and not reduce holdings during the lock-in period."
Finally he moved the pencil next to "Live Pigs Breeding".
"The listing application materials for Yunnan Agriculture have been submitted and are expected to enter the review process in the first half of next year.
Pig Cycle is likely to reverse next year. Cheng Jiaxun's sow inventory data has recovered well.
Yunnan Agriculture's strategy is to wait for it to go public, and then make adjustments based on the valuation level after it goes public."
He put down the pencil and looked at the six lines radiating from Henglong on the paper.
"Among these six sectors, the core positions are Bidiya, Green Energy Technology and Bubble Mary--
New Energy complete vehicle, Energy Storage Materials, Designer Toys IP.
These three assets are Henglong's biggest value growth engines in the next few years.
Tongce, Pianzaihuang, Fenjiu, Wuliangye are stabilizers. Yunnan Agriculture is a catalyst.
The position and role of each piece of assets are different, but each piece cannot be moved easily."
"Zhao Zong, what you listed just now is the refocusing of the existing track.
Have you ever thought about which tracks Henglong should enter in the next three years?"
Zhao Chen picked up the tea cup and took a sip.
After putting down the cup, he picked up the pencil again and drew a new circle on the blank space of the paper.
"Yes. Humanoid Robots, Controlled Nuclear Fusion, Brain-Computer Interface--
These are the directions for the next ten years. It is still in the very early stages, the valuation system has not been established, and the technical routes have not converged.
Henglong is not investing now, but it must be researched in advance and locked in advance.
By the time the market started paying attention, we were already in the pool.
I leave this pool to you to build. You have enough time, there is no need to rush."
Chen Xi Fold the piece of paper and put it in the bag.
"In the first quarter of next year, I will lay out the research framework for each track.
After you read this, we will discuss which tracks are worthy of in-depth due diligence.
I will not waste the time you gave me, nor will I turn it into an exam that I rush to hand in."