One early morning in mid-January, Zhao Chen was flipping through the scrolling global Financial News on Bloomberg Terminal in the office as usual.
After all Henglong's pledged financing was cleared, he rarely had a few peaceful sleeps, and the shadows under his eyes became much lighter.
The administrative assistant has just replaced a new pot of tea, and the spout is still steaming.
An alert popped up on the screen. The English title was very short, only a few words.
But every word drove into his eyes like nails--
"India New Delhi A new influenza virus broke out, and many hospitals set up isolation areas."
His hand holding the tea cup stopped in mid-air.
The second alert popped up immediately:
"Ministry of Health of India held an emergency press conference, New Delhi three hospitals have set up isolation areas.
Preliminary investigation shows that the virus first appeared in a certain electronic market, and traceability work is still in progress.
World Health Organization Office in South Asia has activated the emergency response mechanism."
Zhao Chen put the tea cup on the table and stared at the words "New Delhi" on the screen for a long time.
This place name is wrong.
The public health crisis he experienced before his rebirth, the first round of the global pandemic did not start here.
But now that the flu is breaking out in New Delhi, global shipping and Supply Chain may be affected at any time--
The skeleton of the incident has not changed, but the impact point has shifted by several thousand kilometers.
He called up all the messages about New Delhi Flu on Bloomberg.
Isolated ward, traceability investigation, global shipping interruption warning--
Each one is completely consistent with the logical framework of the timeline in memory, but the coordinates have been moved.
This is no accident.
When Chen Xi opened the door and walked in, he held the first draft of Henglong Capital's investment strategy for the first quarter in his hand.
She was about to say Bidiya's position adjustment suggestions, but she stopped talking when she saw Zhao Chen's expression.
From Short Selling Henglong to Tesla hunting, she has seen him under various pressures,
But at this moment, there was something in the concentration he was staring at Bloomberg Terminal that she had never seen before -
It's not that he is nervous, he is someone who has already engraved the trend of the next ten years in his mind.
Suddenly I found that the scale line under my feet moved on its own.
"Zhao Zong, what happened?"
"New Delhi A new type of influenza broke out.
The situation may be more serious than disclosed so far, and the transmission path has not yet been identified.
If it turns into a global public health crisis..."
He didn't finish his sentence.
He recited the second half of the sentence silently in his mind -
Then the time nodes, asset price trends, and industry rotation rhythms in my memory,
Maybe they will all deviate from the original track because of the flapping wings of this butterfly.
Chen Xi puts the first draft of the investment strategy on the table.
She quickly understood the unspoken meaning of Zhao Chen--
Every accurate prediction he made before was supported by a complete historical timeline.
If this timeline is offset due to some uncontrollable variable,
Then all investment decision-making frameworks based on prophetic memory in the past few years need to be re-examined.
But she didn't ask further questions, just opened her laptop,
Start rechecking the industry distribution of all current positions of Henglong Capital, cash flow stress test and liquidity needs under extreme scenarios.
"If this is a global shock,
The first to be affected may be the multinational Supply Chain, bulk commodities and logistics aviation sectors.
Our position structure is not directly exposed to these areas.
But the indirect transmission path needs to be re-evaluated--
For example, Bidiya's overseas parts supply, Bubble Mary's cross-border logistics and store expansion rhythm, Green Energy Technology's overseas orders Delivery Cycle."
Zhao Chen looked away from the window and landed on the laptop in front of Chen Xi.
He clicked on the Bidiya column with his finger, and what he said was not a vague suggestion.
It is a conclusion that has completed cost conversion and alternative path deduction--
Once the international Supply Chain is blocked, Bidiya's overseas parts import cycle may be lengthened, which may affect the production schedule in the short term.
However, the localization rate of Bidiya is already one of the highest among domestic car companies.
The battery and electronic control system are all in its own hands, and the impact of the Supply Chain interruption on it is far less than that of traditional car companies.
On the contrary, it may further widen the gap with competitors in this changing situation.
Chen Xi recorded this judgment in the revision column of the first draft of the investment strategy.
Zhao Chen Go on, the second point is Consumer Sector--
Bubble Mary has just gained a foothold in Hong Kong Stock Exchange, if the flu spreads,
Wang An's offline store Expansion Plan may be slowed down, and the pace of expansion in overseas markets will also be affected.
But looking at it conversely, young people's online consumption habits will accelerate while they are at home.
Online Blind Boxes sales and IP licensing income may offset some of the offline losses.
Bubble Mary's ability to resist risks is much stronger than that of traditional retail companies.
The third point is Green Energy Technology--
Large-scale commercial delivery of Energy Storage Materials may be delayed due to global engineering construction slowdown,
However, the long-term order for Tesla Megapack has been locked, and the demand will only be postponed but not disappear.
"If this flu really spreads,"
Zhao Chen leaned back in his chair and glanced back and forth at the constantly updated news titles on the screen.
"The liquidity released by countries around the world will most likely push high-quality technology assets to valuation ranges that we had to wait a long time to see before.
Henglong has to do three things:
Reorganize the Supply Chain transmission paths of all positions, thicken Cash Reserves one more layer, and then wait patiently--
When those assets that can really go through the cycle are wrongly killed by the market, catch them at the cheapest price."
Chen Xi nodded and wrote three lines in his notebook--
"Clean up the global Supply Chain transmission paths of all positions and redo a stress test under extreme circumstances;
Cash Reserves increased from 1.5 billion to 2 billion, specifically to deal with possible large-scale market sell-offs;
Henglong Capital suspends all new Secondary Market buying plans and waits for the impact to be fully released before making allocations."
She closed the notebook and raised her head to look at Zhao Chen.
"Zhao Zong, the expression on your face when you read the Bloomberg news just now is different from the expression I saw on you before any decision.
In the past, when you made judgments, there was a certainty in your eyes that you had already written the answer on paper.
This time is different - it's more like you are confirming whether your judgment can still be used. Can you tell me the answer?"
"Yes." Zhao Chen picked up the tea cup and took a sip. The rim of the cup rested on his lips for a moment.
"In the past, I made judgments because I knew where the river turned.
Now there is an extra stone in the river, and this stone may change the direction of the water flow.
But the river is still the river - Fundamentals analysis, valuation logic, risk pricing, these things will not become invalid just because there is an extra stone.
Henglong got to where it is today not because of me alone, but because of the system established over the past few years and a group of people who can think independently.
No matter how many stones there are in the river, the boat will still sail anyway."
As he spoke, his eyes fell on the first draft of the investment strategy that she had not yet put down.
"Bidiya's position adjustment suggests that you put it aside first and don't rush to hand it over.
After the impact of the influenza on global Supply Chain is fully fermented, we will redo the valuation of Model based on new assumptions.
In the past, when we did stress testing, we assumed normal cycle fluctuations. In the future, we will assume extreme tail risks."
He paused and drank the last sip of tea in the cup.
"Also, let Aunt Zhang research in advance the possible legal impact of the global public health emergency on Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions and the marketing approval process.
If this influenza really spreads to the world, the launch rhythm of Green Energy Technology,
Bubble Mary's overseas subsidiary compliance structure, Henglong's disclosure obligations in the US Stocks market--
Every legal process can be reshaped."
Chen Xi wrote these words down in his notebook one by one, closed it and stood up to leave.
When she reached the door, she paused and did not look back.
"Zhao Zong, there's one thing I'm not sure I should ask.
You just said that you make judgments because you know where the river turns--
You only said half of this sentence. What is that extra stone in the river?"
Zhao Chen's fingers were rubbing back and forth on the circle of tea stains on the Zisha Pot lid.
"The stone is called Butterfly Effect. A butterfly flapped its wings at New Delhi, changing the coordinates of the map in my hand.
The map can be changed, but the eyes that look at the map cannot be changed."
He put the teapot back on the coffee table, leaned back in his chair,
"Go ahead and reorganize our existing global Supply Chain conduction path.
I need to know the stress test results of all Henglong positions under extreme circumstances."