The night after returning from the Nan'an teahouse, Zhao Chen suffered from insomnia.
It wasn't the insomniac kind of lying in bed tossing and turning - he didn't lie down at all.
He sat in his office and dissected every major decision he had made in the past few years from beginning to end.
From Short Selling Henglong Holdings to Bitcoin, build a position, from heavy position Tesla to bargain hunting Nvidia,
From investing in Bubble Mary to betting on Green Energy Technology.
He drew a timeline on a blank A4 paper, with two lines of words marked on each key node:
One line is "What the prophet's memory told me", and the other line is "What I judged at the time".
Short Selling Henglong Holdings That time, the prophetic memory told him that the stock price would fall.
But what he himself did was far more complicated than knowing a conclusion--
He deduced the countermeasures of Contingency Plan on Board of Directors many months in advance.
Clearly dismantle the interest disputes between all related parties of Henglong Holdings,
Countermeasures have been prepared in advance for every possible counterattack node.
Bitcoin That time, the prophetic memory told him that the currency price would exceed 17,000 US Dollar by the end of 2017.
But what really made him hold on to half a million coins from beginning to end was
It was he who repeatedly asked himself "Have you reached that line" at every stage of the high point?
It was when the market was at its most enthusiastic and everyone around him was urging him to settle for safety.
He locked himself in his office and deduced alone for a whole afternoon, and then came to the same conclusion: he hadn't reached the top yet.
Tesla That time, the prophetic memory told him that Tesla would have a high space.
But what really allowed him to withstand all the pressure on that afternoon of 178,
It was he who drove the stock price from 300 to 178 in the Short-Selling Alliance.
Dismantling the pledge clauses of the four investment banks clearly one by one,
Calculate the precise time point when the last additional margin payment will arrive.
Then in the three days and nights before that time,
Transferred Zhang Qingxue and Chen Xi back to China overnight to find staking channels.
Let Lin Shicheng reply to the SEC's inquiry letters one by one,
On the last weekend, I flew to Cape Canaveral to meet Elon Musk.
These were not things given to him by the prophet's memory.
The prophet's memory only told him--Tesla will rise very, very high.
But he figured out how to increase it step by step.
He put down his pen and leaned back in his chair to look at the densely drawn timeline.
The conclusion has actually been drawn, but he was too stressed by the fear brought about by Butterfly Effect in the past few days.
It was so tight that I forgot to look at what else I was holding.
He picked up his phone and flipped through the message that Elon Musk had replied to him that day - "Starship will definitely succeed."
His finger hovered above the screen for a moment and he typed a line:
"You told me last time at Boca Chica that failure must be cheap enough.
I now have a Model, and all coordinates need to be recalibrated.
Does the recalculation process itself constitute a failure?"
After sending it, he turned the phone over and put it on the table, walked to the window and opened the curtains.
Jiangbeizui in the early morning is as quiet as a black and white photo,
The steel cable of Chaotianmen Bridge flashes silver-white light in the night.
Elon Musk's reply popped up a few hours later--
"Recalculation is not called failure, it is called iteration.
When Nvidia was defeated by Short Selling, you pushed the cost to more than 120. US Dollar relied on iteration, not prophecy."
Zhao Chen called Chen Xi to the office early the next morning.
When Chen Xi came in, he held the newly updated new variable valuation Model in his hand. He didn't even have time to open it.
Zhao Chen pushed the timeline full of annotations in front of her.
"I want to re-verify the decision-making logic of all Henglong positions.
Instead of using the previous framework, use new variables--
Influenza spread path, Supply Chain recovery cycle, and global liquidity release scale.
All the judgments I made before telling you about 'what will happen at this time point' are put aside.
You use Model to recalculate. I won't give you any preset conclusions, you just tell me what the data says."
Chen Xi took over the timeline and looked at it for a long time.
She saw those dense markings--
Next to each battle is written Zhao Chen's own judgment and analysis at the time.
Those analyzes were written extremely calmly, as if they were dissecting other people's decisions.
After reading it, she raised her eyes and looked at him.
"Zhao Zong, do you still remember the first time you asked me to make investment advice independently?
At the beginning of last year, you asked me to evaluate the positions of Tongce Medical and Pien Tze Huang.
I submitted a report at that time and recommended continuing to hold it.
After reading it, you only asked me one sentence - 'Is this your judgment, or are you guessing what I want to hear?'
I said it was my own judgment. You signed it and didn't change a word."
"I remember. There is a sentence in your report that I can still recite -
'Consumer Healthcare is a long slope with thick snow, and the holding cost is kept low enough, so we don't do swings.'"
"Yes. That sentence is my judgment, not yours.
Henglong There are many key decisions made by you, but there are also more and more decisions made by ourselves.
You now say that you need to re-verify all position logic--
That's not starting from scratch, it's adding a layer of correction of external variables to our existing judgments."
She folded the timeline and put it in her notebook, stood up and prepared to leave.
When he reached the door, he paused, turned around and looked at Zhao Chen.
"Zhao Zong, you said there is an extra stone in the river. But you are never the only one rowing on this river.
You ask what the data says - the data will tell you, but the data will also change.
What really doesn't change are the people sitting on this floor willing to recalculate with you."
After Chen Xi went out, Zhao Chen sat at the desk, picked up Zisha Pot and poured a cup of tea.
The steel cable Chaotianmen Bridge outside the window is getting brighter and brighter by the morning light,
A freighter was slowly passing by on the river, its whistle sounding low and long.
He turned to a photo that he had saved a long time ago on his phone--
That was sent to him by Su Wantang, a group photo taken by the Henglong core team during a team building event a long time ago.
Shen Zhiyi is not used to being faced by the camera yet, so he smiles a little shyly;
Chen Xi is holding up his chopsticks and saying something, his eyes full of opinions;
Zhang Qingxue just came out of Meeting Room, with his work badge still hanging on his collar;
Su Wantang is quietly holding a teapot on the far left of the photo;
Shen Jue didn't smile, but there was a very faint warmth in his eyes;
Chen Qiming and Song Zhongping are also there.
He looked at this photo for a long time,
Then he took out a new Henglong Letterhead from the drawer and wrote a line of words on the paper with Fountain Pen.
"I used to think that my most valuable thing was the map. Now I know that the most valuable thing is you."