During the days when Tesla's stock price hit extremely low levels during the liquidity crisis, Zhao Chen almost lived in the office.
Bloomberg Terminal is on 24 hours a day, and the time-sharing line on the screen beats like an electrocardiogram.
Every dip touches the nerves of traders around the world.
The fourth version of the stress test report sent by Chen Xi is still spread out on the table, and the margins of the page are filled with comments written by him in pencil.
The corresponding variable assumptions and alternative deductions are marked next to each number.
The call from Elon Musk rang at three o'clock in the morning.
Zhao Chen was sleeping lightly on the sofa, and sat up the moment he heard the ringing--
The call from Fremont at this time cannot be good news.
"Zhao." Elon Musk's voice came from the other end of the receiver, as hoarse as sandpaper rubbing against iron.
In the background, you can faintly hear the low roar of factory equipment and the beep of forklifts reversing.
He probably just came off the production line.
"California factory parts can last a few weeks at most.
Panasonic's battery supply schedule has been delayed by the Southeast Asia chip outage.
The delivery expectation for the second quarter was slashed by a large margin by Wall Street.
Some analysts say that Tesla's cash flow cannot survive the third quarter."
Zhao Chen waited for a few seconds before speaking, his tone was more steady than usual, as if he was weighing every word on a scale.
"Supply Chain outage is global and not a problem of Tesla family.
The packaging and testing production capacity of Panasonic and Southeast Asia will be restored sooner or later, but the time window has been lengthened.
Your California factory is the only electric vehicle assembly line still operating in the United States.
The longer you stay than your competitors, the wider the gap becomes."
"You told me last year that Tesla's most dangerous time has passed.
But the current situation is more difficult to predict than any crisis I have ever experienced.
Supply Chain is not linear - when a chip packaging and testing factory stops production, it affects the entire delivery chain."
Elon Musk paused for a moment, and his voice suddenly became very low, as if he was covering the microphone with his hand.
"Zhao, tell me the truth. Are you relying on data or intuition when you say these things now?"
Zhao Chen's fingers tightened slightly. He had asked himself this question repeatedly in his heart a few months ago.
He said before that "the most dangerous time has passed",
It's because he knows when the Shanghai factory will be put into production and when Model Y will be released.
When will the global chip Supply Chain be restored?
Those time points are like a map printed in advance,
He only needs to walk along the contour line, stepping on the correct position every step.
But now this map has been changed by a butterfly flapping its wings at New Delhi.
He couldn't tell the precise time point. He could only use the most primitive way to disassemble every link of Supply Chain.
Deduct the worst-case recovery cycle item by item, and then tell yourself that the worst-case scenario is not too bad.
"Not data, not intuition."
He put the tea cup on the table, and the bottom of the cup hit the glass table with a light and clear crunching sound.
"It's a fact. This disaster is not experienced by the Tesla family, but by everyone and all industries.
I've seen you squatting under Raptor engine all night to troubleshoot Boca Chica.
I believe you can hold on."
There was silence on the other end of the phone.
In the background of the factory, someone was shouting the number of a certain part in Spanish, and the forklift's reversing beep sounded from near to far.
After a long time, Elon Musk spoke again, his voice softer than before.
But something cracked in that voice, distorted by weeks of pressure.
"The engine eventually blew up.
I squatted on the test bench all night, and the next morning it blew the entire test bench into scrap metal."
"I know. But you had someone push the spare prototype onto the test stand the next afternoon.
You tell those engineers - if it explodes, it will explode. The stainless steel remains will still be there.
The fracture surface of the weld is the best failure analysis sample.
As long as you know where it broke, the next one can be welded more firmly.
Just assume that what you are facing now is not a Supply Chain fracture, but another form of Raptor engine test.
All questions for Tesla--
The battery supply of Panasonic is out of supply, and the parts inventory of California factory has bottomed out.
The delivery in the second quarter was looked down upon by Wall Street - every problem has a corresponding breakpoint coordinate.
You are not facing one unknown number, you are facing dozens of known failed nodes at the same time.
Find the breakpoint closest to you and solder it. Then the next one."
"Zhao." Elon Musk suddenly called his name and did not continue.
"Hmm."
"If Era Vanguard hadn't caught Tesla's smash on day 178, I might no longer be on this production line now."
Zhao Chen Change the phone to the other ear.
The morning fog Two Rivers Confluence outside the window was blown open by the wind, revealing the gray-blue sky.
"You won't let this happen either. You said something in Boca Chica--
As long as the cost of failure is low enough, you can fail enough times until you find the right path.
Tesla is not Raptor engine. You don't need to explode to verify its limits.
But you need to accept one thing - this Supply Chain interruption is essentially a test that you cannot predict in advance.
You don't have any previous test data to refer to.
Because no one has ever operated an electric vehicle factory in the context of a global pandemic and a Southeast Asia chip supply outage at the same time before.
This is not failure, this is you standing on a brand new test bench.
And what you need to do is exactly the same as what you did squatting under the engine in Boca Chica--
Find the breakpoint and solder it."
There was silence on the other end of the phone for a long time.
Zhao Chen heard Elon Musk change the phone from his left hand to his right hand and back again,
Then I heard him exhale a long breath,
It's like expelling all the exhaust gas that has been accumulated for weeks from the body that has been squatting under the engine all year round.
"Zhao, I always thought I owed you on 178.
Now I think you may have seen how far Tesla can go before I did."
Zhao Chen put the empty cup back on the table, "I also experienced something some time ago -
My judgment was re-verified by myself for the first time.
It feels like you always have a map in your hand,
Suddenly one day you find that a coordinate on the map has been changed.
You don't know if the other coordinates are still there.
But then I discovered that the map was not my most valuable thing in the first place.
The most valuable thing to me is the ability to redraw the map.
So do you.
Tesla The most valuable thing is not the Capacity Ramp-Up timetable in your hand.
It's your habit of squatting under Raptor engine and welding all failed nodes one by one.
This habit will not disappear just because Supply Chain is interrupted."
Elon Musk has no answer.
Zhao Chen heard him put down his mobile phone and said a few words to the engineer beside him,
There was Spanish conversation and the hum of power tools in the background.
After a while, he picked up the microphone again, and his voice returned to the familiar certainty of Zhao Chen.
"I just asked someone to redo the production schedule for the new Shanghai factory.
Supply Chain The risk of outage is listed in a separate column, not relying on previous estimates, only recent actual data."
"In the past, you would put all these risks at the bottom of the table, mark them with the smallest font size, and pray that Board of Directors wouldn't ask."
"I used to think that risks would not be discovered as long as they were hidden.
Later I discovered that things that cannot be hidden are the real risks."
Elon Musk paused for a moment, and suddenly his voice was very soft,
"Zhao, you said something to me at Boca Chica at that time -
You said Nvidia is not a chip company, but a money printing machine in the era of computing power.
I thought you were talking about Nvidia at the time. I realized later,
You're telling me how to find a company's true moat.
If Supply Chain is broken, it can be re-welded, but where to dig the moat is decided before the supply is cut off.
The moat of Tesla is not on Supply Chain, but on the production line. As long as the production line is still rotating, the moat will not be dry."
"What you said is very accurate."
Zhao Chen After hanging up the phone, he leaned on the back of the sofa and watched the morning fog clearing outside the window little by little.
This is the first time that he does not rely on prophetic memory, but only relies on his own judgment to trust a team and a product.
Boca Chica The piece of stainless steel debris on the engine test bench that was blown into scrap metal,
Shanghai new factory's re-production schedule--
They fell at the same time on Jiangbeizui in the early morning, and were caught by the road he walked step by step.
The feeling is not as precise and tight as when I used to rely on maps to navigate, but it is more practical than ever.