Huang Renxun put Henglong Research Institute's Independent Tracking Manual on the conference table, turned around and walked to the whiteboard.
He didn't speak immediately, but picked up a black marker and
An upward arrow is drawn at the end of the Data Center revenue growth curve.
Then I wrote a line next to the arrow--
"In the next ten years, the total computing power demand of Data Center globally will increase millions of times."
After writing, he tightened the cap of his pen and turned around.
"I said this in last quarter's conference call.
At that time, the analyst asked me how this number was calculated.
I said it is a Model deduction based on the three variables of the number of CUDA developers, cloud service provider capital expenditures and AI training task computing power demand elasticity coefficient.
They thought I was drawing cakes."
He put the marker in the whiteboard slot and leaned it against the edge of the whiteboard.
"Do you think I'm painting a cake?"
Zhao Chen stood up from the conference table and walked to the whiteboard.
He took out his Fountain Pen from his pocket--
The edge of the cap of the Fountain Pen pen that he had signed on countless Henglong documents had been worn to a shiny finish.
He used the tip of his pen to draw a parallel line next to the "millions of times" written by Huang Renxun.
"The independent Model derivation result of Henglong Research Institute is completely consistent with the trend of your figure.
But our Model does not use your internal data--
We use the publicly disclosed capital expenditure plans of cloud service providers,
Changes in the proportion of CUDA cited in global AI papers, and the elasticity of computing power demand for AI training tasks by major enterprise customers.
The three dimensions of public data, independent deduction, and conclusions are of the same order of magnitude as the numbers you gave during the conference call.
The conclusion we came to - this is not a painting, this is inevitable.
Two completely independent Model, using different data sources, have reached the same intersection, which is enough to prove the future."
Huang Renxun stared at the parallel line on the whiteboard for a long time.
"Have you separated out the two vertical tracks of Model, Autonomous Driving and Medical Imaging?"
"Tear it down. The growth rate of Autonomous Driving's computing power demand will gradually exceed that of Internet advertising recommendation algorithms in the next few years.
It has become the second largest computing power consumption scenario after the big Model training.
The growth rate of Medical Imaging is slightly slower, but the base is low, and the scale cannot be underestimated in ten years.
We have given different weights to these two subdivided tracks in the latest version of Model.
There may be some numerical differences with your internal Model, but the trend is the same."
Huang Renxun picked up a blue marker from the whiteboard slot,
Draw a slightly steeper curve below the parallel line drawn by Zhao Chen."
This is our internal Model. We have increased the weight of Autonomous Driving.
You should be able to deduce the reason from public information--
This year, the Autonomous Driving departments of several major electric vehicle companies are all expanding their recruitment.
Their orders for Orin chips from Nvidia will be released intensively in the second half of the year.
The slope of this line is a few tenths of a percentage point higher than yours. It's not a Model difference, it's a time window difference.
You are using public data, which is about two months behind the internal data."
"The difference of a few tenths,
In our quarterly review, it is marked as 'Management Guidance and Independent Model Difference Range', which is within the normal range.
If the difference continues to expand, our Model will automatically trigger a correction signal.
This mechanism is independent from your internal iteration cycle, but in the same direction."
Zhao Chen used Fountain Pen to lightly draw a vertical line in the narrow gap between the two curves.
"We review these differences every quarter.
This line Autonomous Driving, according to our independent tracking data,
The revenue contribution ratio in the second half of the year will not deviate too much from your guidance.
The time window is two months different, but the direction of judgment is the same."
Huang Renxun put the blue marker in the whiteboard slot, turned around and leaned against the edge of the table.
He looked at Zhao Chen from head to toe with the same eyes that an engineer would use to look at prototype test data, stripped of all emotional factors -
Different from polite glances in social situations,
This is a man who has spent more than two decades verifying countless hypotheses in the ocean of GPU transistors.
After confirming that the young man standing in front of him was quoting other people's research results,
I still really pushed through every formula personally.
"Did you make these Model yourself, or was it made by your team?"
"Made by a team. Henglong Research Institute developed it independently. I only read the final draft.
All input variables, assumptions and derivation paths of Model are all traced, and each iteration is archived."
"You're not involved in modeling?"
"I won't participate. But I will participate in the verification.
For each quarterly review, I will use my own judgment to cross-check with the Model conclusion.
I will only intervene if there are major deviations in the comparison results.
So far, there has been no situation that required my intervention."
Huang Renxun put the marker in the whiteboard slot and made a slight crunching sound of plastic hitting metal.
He picked up an unopened bottle of mineral water from the corner of the table, unscrewed the cap and took a sip.
His eyes crossed the mouth of the bottle and landed on the few lines of handwritten words on the title page of the manual in front of Zhao Chen--
Those few lines of judgment about Nvidia's core competitiveness that Zhao Chen wrote in the Manhattan hotel a long time ago,
The edges of the paper are slightly hairy, and the handwriting is not neat, but each stroke is very vigorous.
He put down the water bottle and tapped the lines with his finger.
"You said you were sitting alone in the hotel with only public data.
Why do you dare to determine the future of Nvidia?
At that time, Data Center's revenue was less than half of the game, and the number of CUDA developers was less than half of what it is now.
Why do you believe that these things can become reality?"
Zhao Chen leaned back in the chair and gently rubbed his fingers on the cover of Zisha Pot.
Without revealing the secret of being a reborn person, he could only find other excuses.
"Because of you. Before I decided to buy Nvidia,
Researched all the public information you could find --
From your speech at the GTC conference to your answers to every question from analysts on the Financial Report conference call,
Turning to what you said in media interviews. I discovered one thing - you never talk about stock prices.
You only talk about the long-term trends in architecture, ecology, and computing power demand.
A person who has been in the GPU industry for more than 20 years and has experienced several share price cuts in half without selling the company.
The first thing he says to the mirror every day is not 'Will the stock price rise today?' but 'We are only thirty days away from bankruptcy.'
This is not crisis management.
This is a man who turned his fears into work habits.
Companies founded by such people will not die at the bottom of any cycle.
Because it has long since turned fear into daily life."
Huang Renxun was silent for a long time.
The air conditioner outlet in Meeting Room makes a very low air flow sound.
There was a faint hum of a fan spinning at high speed from a server room in the distance.
Then he laughed—not the trademark laugh he had when facing the spotlight on the GTC stage,
But after more than twenty years of saying the same thing in front of the mirror every morning,
He smiled when he suddenly discovered that another person sitting across from him could repeat the source of his mantra verbatim.
He put the water bottle on the table, and the bottom of the bottle made a slight muffled sound when it hit the wooden table.