After the video call screen dimmed, Zhao Chen leaned on the back of his chair and read through the three screening reports sent by Lin Shicheng from beginning to end.
The office was so quiet that only the low air flow of the air conditioner and the occasional whistle coming from the river outside the window were left.
The tea in Zisha Pot was completely cold. He picked up the cup and took a sip, put it down, picked up a pen and wrote a few numbers on the note paper.
GameStop and AMC.
Silver.
Lithium.
He stared at these three words for a moment and suddenly stopped the pen on the paper.
There was one thing he just missed.
The screening report of Lin Shicheng covers US Stocks, which has the highest proportion of Short Selling, and the price trends of major rare metal futures, but there is one species that is not included in the report - nickel.
Nickel futures for London Metal Exchange(LME).
Zhao Chen quickly ran through the timeline in his mind.
He remembered that in March 2022, the LME nickel price was forced from more than 20,000 US Dollar per ton to more than 100,000 US Dollar in two days.
Tsingshan Holding Group held a position of 200,000 tons of Short Sellers and was almost forced to fail to deliver.
The reason for that round of Short Squeeze is very complicated--
Indonesia Tightening nickel ore export policy, impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on Russian nickel supply,
New Energy The high-nickelization route of the car continues to drive nickel demand, coupled with the long-term low level of LME nickel inventory.
The most critical variable is that nickel plate inventory that meets LME delivery standards is extremely scarce.
Most of the world's nickel products are ferronickel and high matte nickel, which do not meet the LME's nickel plate delivery standards.
If someone accumulates nickel plates that meet the delivery standards in advance, they will be the scarcest chips when Short Squeeze occurs.
Zhao Chen put the tea cup on the table and dialed the video of Lin Shicheng again.
New York Over there, Lin Shicheng was preparing to clear away the files on the table and turn off the computer. When he saw the call request popping up on the screen, he sat down again.
He noticed that Zhao Chen's expression was different from just now - he was reviewing the plan just now, but now he has made a decision.
"Zhao Zong, is there anything else?"
"Lawyer Lin, in the three reports just now, nickel was not covered."
Lin Shicheng flipped through the document in his hand and confirmed it.
"Yes. Nickel is not included in this screening.
I mainly focused on US Stocks with a high proportion of Short Selling and rare metals related to the precious metals and New Energy industry chains.
The supply and demand structure of nickel is relatively complex, and the LME inventory data is updated less frequently, so I have not included it in priority screening for the time being."
"From now on, give nickel the highest priority."
Zhao Chen's fingers slowly circled around the edge of the tea cup,
"I want you to do one thing. Starting from September, quietly accumulate nickel plates that meet delivery standards in the LME market.
The goal is - within one year, at least 200,000 tons."
Lin Shicheng was quiet on the other side of the screen for several seconds. His fingers tapped lightly on the table twice, and then stopped.
"Two hundred thousand tons."
He repeated the number, with a tone typical of lawyers when confirming entrusted matters, with caution.
"Zhao Zong, this quantity is very large. The nickel plate inventory in LME's global registered warehouse is only about 100,000 tons all year round.
Two hundred thousand tons means that we will not only sweep away all Spot on the market,
It is also necessary to directly lock in the quantity from the manufacturer, and it may even be necessary to sign a long-term purchase agreement with the nickel mines of Indonesia and Philippines.
In terms of capital occupation - based on the current nickel price of 12,000 to 15,000 US Dollar per ton, 200,000 tons will require 2.4 billion to 3 billion US Dollar.
This does not include warehousing fees, logistics fees, insurance fees and LME delivery standard certification costs."
"I will arrange the funds. You do two things first:
First, study the specific requirements of LME nickel plate delivery standards--
What grade of nickel plate meets the delivery conditions, which manufacturers have LME certification qualifications, and how much global production capacity meets the standards.
Second, contact the registered warehouse operator of the LME to understand the existing inventory distribution and warehousing costs.
Don't go through public channels and don't leave any traces that can spell out your true intentions.
Use the Offshore SPV operation to open positions in batches and do not push the price up at once."
Lin Shicheng Write down the key points one by one in your notebook.
He has been engaged in Securities Law transactions and cross-border transactions for twenty years, and is very aware of the weight of this order--
Two hundred thousand tons of nickel plate exceeds the total inventory of LME's global registered warehouses.
If Zhao Chen's judgment is correct, when Short Squeeze occurs, this batch of Spot will be the scarcest chips in the market.
If the judgment is wrong, the funds will be locked up in the warehouse for a long time, and the storage fees will eat up the income every day.
"Zhao Zong, can I ask a question?"
"Ask."
"Why nickel? I can understand the logic of Silver and lithium--
Liquidity release, industrial demand recovery, New Energy upstream of the industrial chain.
There are no obvious extreme signals in the supply and demand structure of nickel.
Although LME inventories are at low levels, Indonesia's ferronickel and high matte nickel production capacity has been expanding, and there is no hard gap on the supply side."
Zhao Chen leaned on the back of the chair and gently rubbed his fingers on the cover of Zisha Pot.
He can't tell Lin Shicheng that he remembers what happened in March 2022.
But he can dismantle the logic in his memory into judgments that can be verified by public data.
"LME nickel stocks are already low.
The explicit inventory of global nickel plates is not enough for one month's consumption.
If there are any supply-side shocks --
Indonesia's export policy changes, geopolitical events in major producing countries,
Or a big Short Sellers holds a large Short Sellers position on the LME - the stock cushion is simply not enough.
The LME nickel contract has a structural flaw - most nickel products do not meet delivery standards.
Nickel plate production capacity that meets standards is concentrated in the hands of a few producers, and most of their output is locked in long-term contracts.
Once Short Squeeze occurs, there will simply not be enough Spot in the market for delivery.
At that time, whoever has nickel plates that meet the standards will be the final dealer."
Lin Shicheng was silent for a few seconds.
He turned the notebook to a new page, wrote a few lines on it, and then raised his head.
"Zhao Zong, if we follow the logic you just said--
LME nickel inventory is low, delivery products are scarce, and Short Sellers positions are concentrated--
The goal of hoarding nickel plates is not to hold them until the price rises and then sell them.
When Short Squeeze occurred, we took advantage of the scarcity of this batch of Spot to establish a reverse position in the LME market.
Use Spot to lock the delivery path of Short Sellers, and then push the price up in the futures market."
"Yes." Zhao Chen put the teacup on the table. The sound of the bottom of the cup hitting the glass tabletop was very soft, but very clear.
"But there is a premise - this matter must be kept absolutely confidential.
We cannot let the LME know that someone is systematically hoarding nickel plates, and we cannot let Short Sellers know in advance that Spot is being locked up.
All operations are completed through Offshore SPV, and positions are opened in batches. The amount purchased each time should not trigger the LME's inventory change warning.
The goal of 200,000 tons does not need to be achieved within one year - first lengthen the pace and eat slowly.
By the time the market starts to notice the continued decline in nickel inventories, we have already acquired enough chips."
Lin Shicheng wrote a line on the last page of the notebook and closed the notebook.
"Understood. I will start studying LME nickel delivery standards, producer qualifications and warehousing costs starting next week.
I will give you a complete purchasing plan before mid-September."
Zhao Chen nodded.
After the video hung up, he leaned back in his chair and his eyes fell on the Chaotianmen Bridge cable outside the window.
On the last day of August, dusk is coming up inch by inch from Two Rivers Confluence.
GameStop, AMC, Silver, lithium, nickel--
These targets were just lines of data in the screening report, but in his mind they were a layout map that was taking shape.
GameStop and AMC are Tactical Allocation that hedge the extreme Short Selling structure,
Silver and lithium are strategic extensions of the upstream industrial chain of New Energy, while nickel is a hidden gem buried in the LME warehouse.
He doesn't need to predict the future - the LME's inventory data is public,
The delivery standards of nickel plates are public, and the position structure of Short Sellers can be deduced from public channels.
He only needs to dismantle the public data to the bottom layer, and then act earlier and more covertly than everyone else.
He picked up his phone and sent a message to Chen Xi.
"Lawyer Lin will have several special opportunity accounts to open positions next, which will not be included in the scope of the quarterly review.
Involving US Stocks Options and LME commodity futures.
The specific details will be contacted directly by Lawyer Lin, as long as you know."
Chen Xi's reply popped up quickly.
"Received. Do I need to set a limit on the special opportunity account?"
Zhao Chen thought for a while and typed a few words.
"Assume that the total exposure does not exceed 5% of Era Vanguard's net assets. The excess needs to be reviewed by Investment Decision Committee."
After sending it, he turned the phone over and put it on the coffee table, picked up Zisha Pot and poured the last cup of tea today.