Shan City.
Henglong Capital Research Institute.
In the first full trading week after Spring Festival, the market has returned to activity.
9:15 am.
A-share Before the market opens.
Henglong Capital Research Institute Meeting Room.
A huge electronic screen lights up.
The above is not a single stock.
It is a whole set of valuation, capital and institutional position data of China Core Assets.
Wuliangye.
Shanxi Fenjiu.
Moutai
and listed separately on the other side--
Bidiya.
Zhao Chen stands in front of the screen.
Chen Xi is sitting at the other end of the conference table.
Shen Zhiyi did not participate in the investment discussion and was only responsible for the compliance confirmation of the boundaries between subsequent transactions and Information Disclosure.
Chen Qiming stared at the funds table.
This is the first time Henglong Capital has formally discussed the next stage of asset allocation since the end of Silver.
Chen Xi Open the first file.
"Research Institute has completed the preliminary screening."
"The most noteworthy thing in the market right now is the consumption of Core Assets."
Zhao Chen nodded.
"Look at the valuation first."
Screen switching.
Historical valuation curves appear one after another.
2020.
Impact of the epidemic.
Liquidity is loose.
Organizations team up.
Core consumer assets continue to gain capital concentration.
Liquor, food and beverages, medicine and some New Energy assets have become the most concerned areas in the market.
Chen Xi said:
"In the past year, institutional funds have continued to concentrate on Core Assets."
"Especially Baijiu."
"The market has formed relatively strong deterministic expectations."
Zhao Chen had no immediate comment.
He looked at the curves.
"Where are the funds?"
Chen Xi Switch page.
"The proportion of institutional holdings remains at a high level."
"Northbound Funds, active funds, public offering heavy positions and some Long-term Capital all have obvious concentration."
"And this concentration didn't happen in a day."
"It's been going on for a while."
Zhao Chen asked:
"What about retail investors?"
Chen Xi smiled.
"More and more."
Zhao Chen also laughed.
"Then it's not just a grouping of institutions."
"It has become a consensus."
Nine thirty-five.
A-share is open.
The numbers on the screen jump rapidly.
Wuliangye.
Shanxi Fenjiu
A higher opening occurred almost simultaneously.
The researchers began recording quickly.
Chen Xi did not place any trading orders.
Just keep watching.
Zhao Chen is sitting at the front of the conference table.
"Don't rush."
"Today is not a trading day."
Chen Xi looks up.
"Today is not a trading day?"
"Not for us."
Zhao Chen looked at the screen.
"Look first."
"Record the market when it's most exciting."
Chen Xi nodded.
The researcher begins to create a new observation list.
price.
Trading Volume.
Turnover Rate.
Institutional positions.
Financing balance.
Northbound Funds.
ETF application and redemption.
Industry capital flows.
It even includes changes in target prices reported by major securities firms.
All data began to be unified into Model.
Ten fifteen in the morning.
Wuliangye continues to rise.
The performance of Shanxi Fenjiu is equally strong.
The red numbers on the screen are constantly refreshing.
One researcher couldn't help but say:
"Market sentiment is strong."
Zhao Chen did not respond.
He just asked:
"Where is the valuation Model?"
Chen Xi projects another picture to the big screen.
"Calculated based on historical earnings growth rate."
"The current valuation is significantly higher than in most periods in the past."
"But if calculated based on the long-term growth premium given by the market..."
She paused.
"Some people still think it's reasonable."
Zhao Chen nodded.
"That's the problem."
"It doesn't matter whether it's expensive or not."
"It's about how many years of growth the market is willing to pay in advance."
Chen Xi Got it.
What really needs to be studied is not a simple PE number.
Instead:
How much expectations are already reflected in the price in advance.
Eleven o'clock.
Research Institute internal Model completes the summary for the first time.
Three dimensions appear on the screen.
Valuation.
funds.
Emotions.
Chen Xi explained:
"We're going to separate these three dimensions."
"Valuation is responsible for determining the price position."
"Funds are responsible for judging marginal inflows and outflows."
"Sentiment is responsible for judging the strength of market consensus."
Zhao Chen asked:
"Why not just sell Model?"
Chen Xi was stunned for a moment.
"Because it's not yet the execution stage?"
Zhao Chen nodded.
"No."
"Because Model shouldn't decide whether to buy or sell for us."
"Model should tell us where the risks are."
Meeting Room Be quiet.
Zhao Chen continued:
"If three indicators enter the extreme zone at the same time."
"We just need to reevaluate the risk-benefit ratio."
"Rather than seeing an indicator and starting trading."
Chen Xi wrote this sentence down.
Twelve noon.
Chen Qiming walked into Meeting Room holding the financial table.
"At present, the overall situation of the core positions of Henglong and A-share has been sorted out."
Zhao Chen took the file.
The first thing I saw was BYD.
He paused.
"Bidiya doesn't move."
Chen Qiming nodded.
"Continue to keep it?"
"Continue."
Zhao Chen Turn to the next page.
"All other consumer assets are on the watch list."
Chen Qiming asked:
"Including Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu?"
"Includes."
"Sell now?"
"Not for sale."
Zhao Chen Put the file back on the table.
"What we are studying now is the exit range."
"It's not how much it sells today."
Chen Qiming Got it.
The real reduction plan has not yet begun.
Now it's just a matter of setting up the observation framework.
One o'clock in the afternoon.
Research Institute continues to run Model.
A new set of data appears on the screen.
Institutional capital concentration: high.
Core consumption valuation: high.
Market Sentiment: High.
Earnings expectations: Still strong.
But the last piece of data does not provide a conclusion.
Matching of valuation and future earnings growth: need to continue to be observed.
Zhao Chen watched it for a long time.
"Put this item at the top."
Chen Xi asked:
"Why?"
"Because the real risk is not high valuations."
"It's about whether future growth can be realized when valuations are high."
Chen Xi nodded.
She suddenly discovered.
This time Zhao Chen's idea is completely different from the previous GME and Silver.
GME studies chips.
Silver studies liquidity and sentiment.
A-share Core Assets studies the relationship between valuation and future growth.
This is a completely different game.
Two twenty in the afternoon.
The market continues to rise.
Wuliangye prices moved higher again during the session.
Shanxi Fenjiu also remains strong.
Researchers are constantly updating the data.
But Zhao Chen never issued any sell order.
Shen Zhiyi sat nearby and looked at the screen.
"If we really enter the reduction stage later."
"What needs to be done in advance for compliance?"
Zhao Chen answered:
"First, reorganize each potential disclosure requirement based on the existing shareholding situation."
"Especially important shareholders, shareholding ratio, trading window and Information Disclosure."
Shen Zhiyi nodded.
"Understood."
"First lay out the rules."
"After the transaction decision is confirmed, execute it directly."
Zhao Chen nodded.
"Yes."
Three o'clock in the afternoon.
A-share closes.
Research Institute did not adjourn the meeting immediately.
Chen Xi summarizes the day's data to the last page.
"The market remains strong today."
"Consumption Core Assets continues to be sought after by funds."
"But looking at the funding structure, new funding has begun to diverge."
Zhao Chen looked at the report.
"Very good."
"Keep watching."
Chen Xi asked:
"How long will the observation last?"
Zhao Chen thought for a while.
"Don't follow the time."
"According to the conditions."
"Three dimensions of valuation, capital and emotion."
"As long as it doesn't enter the risk range we set at the same time, don't move."
Chen Xi nodded.
She knows.
This means that the next work will not be a sudden liquidation.
It's a long wait.
7pm.
Henglong Capital Research Institute The light is still on.
Chen Xi sends the final version of the file to Zhao Chen's office.
The file title has been determined.
"Core Consumer Asset Valuation and Capital Structure Risk Assessment in 2021"
Zhao Chen Open the first page.
Part one.
Valuation.
Part Two.
Funding structure.
Part Three.
Institutional positions.
Part Four.
Market sentiment.
Part Five.
potential risks.
Part Six.
Trading observation range.
On the last page, there is no "Sell Now" words.
There is only one sentence:
It is recommended to establish a phased exit from Contingency Plan and wait for the risk-benefit ratio to enter the preset area before executing.
Zhao Chen Close the file.
"Okay."
Chen Xi asked:
"Continue tracking tomorrow?"
"Continue."
"Where is Bidiya?"
Zhao Chen raised his head.
"Create separate files."
"Why?"
Zhao Chen glanced at the name of the company in the document.
"Because it's different from these consumer assets."
"There's industry behind it."
"It's not just a valuation transaction."
Chen Xi nodded.
She understood what Zhao Chen meant.
Consumer assets are the capital market cycle that needs to be observed in this round.
Bidiya is part of the future industrial layout of Henglong.
The two cannot be mixed together.
8pm.
Zhao Chen stood alone in front of the office window.
Shanghai's lights fill the city.
He held the research report in his hand.
Silver has ended.
GME has ended.
The round of extreme sentiment in overseas markets has also come to an end for the time being.
Now, my eyes return to China.
This time there is no Short Squeeze.
No Options Gamma.
There are no retail investors crazily counting down the days in the forum.
Some are just valuations.
funds.
institution.
Expected.
and an increasingly crowded consensus.