Before Draven's forces appeared, Lux had been deeply worried.
She wasn't worried about the Noxians, but about her own supply lines and whatever the Frostguard Priest might do.
To Lux, the Black Forest was shrouded in the fog of war. Worse, she knew nothing about the Frostguard Tribe's characteristics. The only things she had to go on were the traits of Void creatures and the Iceblood Lineage, which Karya had told her about.
So when the Frostguard Priest opened a rift through the glacier and led Draven's forces across the Dragon Ridge Mountains, Lux had even worried they might cause some kind of ground fissure and launch a wide detour.
If the enemy refused to fight her head-on and went to cut off her supply lines instead, her situation would become very difficult.
When the Noxians failed to appear for so long, Lux and the staff officers at headquarters put themselves in the Noxians' shoes and came up with three possible strategies: the best, the middling, and the worst.
The Noxians' best strategy would be to make a broad detour, even at the cost of provoking the other duchies, and attack Nokmoche or even Old Gate. Though that would leave Noxus in an utterly passive position diplomatically, the Demacian Northern Expeditionary Army had left few soldiers behind to protect its supply lines in the Duchy of Valoran and the city-states.
If the Noxians really were audacious enough to do that, Lux and the Demacian Northern Expeditionary Army would instantly find themselves in an utterly passive position.
Of course, considering that the Noxians didn't have a map-wide view either, the odds of them taking such an all-or-nothing gamble weren't particularly high.
In Lux's eyes, the Noxians' middling strategy would be to build a fortress north of Tukugul and hold it.
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