Undercurrents

Berlin

William III looked at the Austrian letter on the table and slammed his hand down.

"The Austrians actually have the gall to demand that they be allowed to join us!"

Though His Majesty the King was furious, most of Prussia's top officials remained unmoved. Quite a few even spoke up for Austria, shamelessly declaring:

"Only a German Customs Union that includes Austria can be called a true German Customs Union."

This made William III furious. How had he raised such a pack of ingrates?

Of course, even ingrates knew how to read the room. Seeing that things were going badly, they immediately changed their tune.

"Brandenburg's destiny is to inherit the legacy of the Holy Roman Empire, annex Austria, drive out Hungary, and establish a truly German nation."

Hearing this, William III's anger finally began to ease.

Clearly, Metternich's golden offensive had worked. After all, the national interest was nothing compared to the money in one's own pocket.

Every country had its greedy men, and every country had its loyal ones.

Prussia's finance minister, Motz, was one of the latter. As the founder and de facto administrator of the German Customs Union, he knew all too well how many tricks the Austrians had pulled behind the scenes.

First, they had stood by as three customs unions emerged within Germany. Then, like the British, they had stayed outside all the union systems, keeping the three unions balanced against one another in a bid to make Prussia steadily decline through internal strife.

Fortunately, the Central German Commercial Union itself was unstable. Its members argued incessantly over a unified internal tariff, and eventually it fell apart.

The South German Customs Union, meanwhile, was caught between France and Austria. Its relatively small territory left it little room to act.

Before long, the Central German Commercial Union and the South German Customs Union both dissolved. But the Austrians refused to give up. They successively courted Saxony and the South German states, intending to establish their own customs union, but nothing came of it.

"Your Majesty, Austria must not be allowed to join. Our industries are still too fragile. The Austrians have a head start over us. If we let them into the German Customs Union, they will cut us down without end."

"Then the Austrians will use the money they plunder from us to buy our resources, turn them into goods, and sell them back to us. One day, we'll end up slaves to them, just like the Irish."

"Gentlemen, what should we do, then?" William III asked.

"We must keep Austria out. Otherwise, we'll have no choice but to set up trade barriers and protect our industries."

"Wasn't the whole point of establishing the German Customs Union to eliminate trade barriers and enable free trade?"

"That's only when we're the ones reaping the benefits, not when we're the ones being harvested."

The man fell silent, but the debate grew louder. Chancellor Welich knew how to persuade this pack of economic ignoramuses, so he shouted:

"Damn it! We must keep the Austrians out! If Hungarian grain comes in, who will buy ours?"

His words immediately won the support of a crowd of Junker Landowners.

What they didn't know was that, at that very moment, Hungary had people just like them.

Budapest

"Damn it! Damn it! The emperor actually wants to join the German Customs Union. What are we Hungarians supposed to do?"

"What's so bad about that? Things will be cheaper to buy. I'm sick of buying Austrian goods all the time. This time we can shop in Berlin. I hear the prostitutes there are very proper."

"Properly talking nonsense! If Prussian grain comes in, who will buy ours?"

The Hungarian landowners immediately joined in. "We must never let Prussian grain into Hungary! If the emperor won't heed our pleas, we'll march on Vienna!" Their roars shook the heavens.

Prince Esterhazy merely watched the frenzied crowd from a corner. Though he liked to talk that way himself, he knew full well that Hungary couldn't defeat Austria right now. Otherwise, they wouldn't still be just shouting slogans.

Besides, he was beginning to miss his palace in Vienna. When it came to the entertainment industry, Vienna was centuries ahead of Budapest.

Hanover.

"What? The Austrians want to join the German Customs Union? What are they thinking? Aren't they afraid of gold flowing out?"

"If Austria can join, so can we," one minister said.

"Are you an idiot? Do those German fellows have any money? You want us to trade real gold and silver for Austrian wastepaper? We mustn't squander our gold on pointless competition."

At the time, signs of an economic crisis were already emerging in Britain, and precious metals were in critically short supply. The British Government's response was to raise trade barriers sharply to stop precious metals from flowing out and prepare for a possible run on the banks.

Europe's major powers followed suit. But Austria's debt had already exceeded the danger threshold, so there was little point in hoarding precious metals. These stable, irredeemable banknotes instead seemed safer.

Saxony, Dresden.

"The Austrians intend to join the German Customs Union?"

"Yes. The Prussians want us to oppose Austria and reject its application to join the German Customs Union."

"Why reject them? Wouldn't it be wonderful to let the Austrians in to fight the Prussians? Saxony is at the heart of Germany. Neither Austria nor Prussia can do without us. Let the tiger and the wolf fight while we wait to play both sides. What could be better?"

"Your Majesty is wise."

France, Paris.

The aged Marshal Soult no longer resembled the soldier he had once been. He remained in a state between sleep and wakefulness.

"That's how things stand. The Austrians intend to join the customs union the Prussians founded. The Prussians don't seem willing to let them in, and there's been some unrest within Austria as well. I believe we should immediately organize a Franco-Belgian Union to counter the Austrians." Guizot finished his report and laid out his proposal.

"All right. I'm old now. His Majesty the King trusts me, and he trusts you too. I know you're capable, and I trust you as well. Just keep a clear conscience and serve His Majesty and God faithfully." The old marshal wanted a peaceful retirement, so he washed his hands of the matter.

"Thank you for your trust. I'll do everything I can to live up to Your Majesty's and your high expectations." Guizot was used to Soult dodging responsibility. He had no time to play verbal games with the old man.

A Franco-Belgian Union had always been Guizot's dream. Belgium had only recently become independent, yet it was the first country on the European continent to industrialize. Its industrial strength was formidable, and its people highly educated.

Belgium also had a uniquely advantageous position. Bringing it into France's sphere of influence would unquestionably strengthen France and extend its influence. France could even go a step further and incorporate all the Low Countries into its territory.

Guizot's idea was a good one. A Franco-Belgian Union could go on the offensive or hold the line, while also strengthening commercial competitiveness. But he had overlooked the most important issue of all: the British.

There was a joke that Belgians could fly their kites straight into Britain. The Low Countries were an absolute red line for the British. They would never allow any great power to lay its hands on the Low Countries. Britain had always feared that a country might occupy the Low Countries and use them as a springboard to invade the British mainland.

When it came to Austria joining the German Customs Union, a military threat like the one used last time might not work. Who knew what had gotten into the Austrian emperor's head? He was actually talking about going to war.

The Austrian emperor could afford to go mad, since his family had never been quite right in the head. But Guizot couldn't afford to. Neither he nor France could bear such a risk.

The traitors within Austria, however, could be put to good use. And the Prussians certainly wouldn't be willing to let the Austrians steal the prize they had raised themselves.

To be fair, France might look down on Austria's meager industrial strength, but the Austrians still had a much better chance of beating the Prussians in the competition.

The Prussians knew that too, which made things much easier. Guizot already had a plan: he would join forces with the anti-Austrian factions in Austria and within the German Customs Union.

He would find a way to keep Austria out of the German Customs Union. Once Austria joined, the matter would no longer be an Austrian problem.

It would be an internal German problem. France had never abandoned its ambitions in the Rhineland, but it still lacked the strength to support them.