The first crisis to hit was the economic one. A series of events—including defeat in war, political turmoil, the country's division over Alsace-Lorraine, and the loss of its colonies—had not eased France's troubles. They had only made them worse.
Trade contracted, businesses cut production, and workers lost their jobs. Agricultural output fell because of land disputes, and the currency depreciated. Farmers earned less than they had expected, so they tore up contracts in droves, causing food shortages in the markets.
The worse things got, the more the banks shied away from risk, and capital fled the country in droves.
Prices climbed, living standards fell, and market confidence collapsed. These problems fed back into the economic crisis, and the result was a steady stream of small-scale uprisings at home. The people's demands for political reform and better living conditions grew louder by the day.
Napoleon III had to weigh every one of these problems carefully. Otherwise, another revolution might well overthrow the French Second Republic.
If Louis Napoleon could win a foreign war at this point, just as his uncle had, the situation would improve dramatically overnight.
But Louis Napoleon was no uncle of his. The several uprisings he had launched in the past had all ended in failure.
By now, Louis Napoleon had a fairly clear-eyed view of his own abilities, and he believed France had options besides war.
War came at a tremendous cost. If the French Second Republic were defeated again, or failed to win a victory that satisfied the French people, both France and Louis Napoleon would be swallowed by the people's fury.
Louis Napoleon also knew that Russia was no Ottoman Empire. The British were not trying to liberate a country; they were asserting their hegemony.
So why should France gamble its national fate for British