And so, spring passed and autumn came; three years went by in the blink of an eye.
Throughout those three years, Xu Xuan remained in the outer sect's herb garden, serving as a deacon.
With his term completed, Manager Zhao naturally moved up to the Mission Hall to serve as a manager.
The herb garden's new manager was also surnamed Zhao and, by generation, was a grandson of Manager Zhao.
Although his rank was higher than Xu Xuan's, he still respectfully addressed him as "Third Master" whenever they met.
Xu Xuan's standing in the herb garden had already become transcendent; no one could order him around.
Compared with the newly arrived Manager Zhao, the people of the herb garden also placed greater faith in Xu Xuan.
Xu Xuan did not resist this. His prestige had accumulated over more than twenty years.
As long as he maintained his relationships with the various elders of the inner sect, he could remain free of worries.
Speaking of which, Old Zhao had only managed to move up to the Mission Hall by basking in his reflected glory.
Li Jiangping had also visited less often in recent years, sometimes arriving with injuries.
Xu Xuan knew that this man had lofty plans in his heart and was dissatisfied with his circumstances. To break through Qi Refining, he frequently took on dangerous missions.
Returning peaches for plums, Xu Xuan had provided him with no small amount of "funding" over these past few years.
Li Jiangping accepted it without misgivings, and whenever Xu Ping and Xu Shun encountered something they could not resolve, he used his connections to settle it.
Once Li Jiangping broke through Qi Refining or advanced to the External Affairs Hall, Xu Xuan would gain another channel.
After so many years together, the three worked in fairly good tacit accord, and none of them would lightly break that accord.
That day, Xu Xuan sat quietly in the courtyard, holding a jade slip that had just been delivered from the Cloud Arrival Trading House.
Shopkeeper Fang had recorded the jade slip, detailing recent news and observations from the market.
Among them, three pieces of news particularly caught Xu Xuan's attention.
First, no rain had fallen in the northern reaches of the Kingdom of Wu for three months, leaving a thousand miles of parched earth.
Second, insect infestations were ravaging the Yue Kingdom in the Southern Wilds, reducing spirit grain yields.
There were further rumors.
Friction between the Profound Sword Gate and the Azure Wood Sect had intensified, and both sides were secretly requisitioning provisions in preparation for war.
Xu Xuan's gaze sharpened slightly, and his knuckles tapped lightly against the stone table.
"Natural disasters and the scourge of war are beginning to show their signs," he murmured.
Pale blue spiritual power emerged from his fingertips and turned into water vapor.
Using his finger as a brush, he wrote the word "grain" on the stone table.
Numerous thoughts intertwined in his mind; he had already keenly foreseen an approaching food crisis.
The Earth Spirit of the Eight Directions also glimmered within his sea of consciousness, seemingly confirming his thoughts.
This was a heaven-sent opportunity, but it also carried enormous risks.
Handled properly, it could reap vast resources for himself and the Xu Household.
But one wrong move on the board could plunge him beyond redemption, even bringing a calamity that would cost him his life.
After pondering for a long time, he immediately rose and issued secret orders.
"Within seven days, I want more information about the Kingdom of Wu and the Yue Kingdom."
"Suspend all unnecessary expenditure at the trading house, and convert any supplies that can be sold into spirit stones as soon as possible."
"Purchase large quantities of ordinary grain and low-grade spirit grain on credit from warehouses we know, and stockpile them in the several hidden warehouses the trading house recently purchased."
"Also, have Xu An meet Xu Ziyu in person. Sell off the household's assets, and convert all kinds of output into spirit stones as soon as possible."
"Borrow from the lineages we are on good terms with in the Kingdom of Wu, and buy up stored grain in large quantities."
"Over in the Yue Kingdom, buy the farmland refugees are selling off, along with various kinds of mountain land. Lay down spiritual formations as soon as possible, turn it into spirit fields, and plant spirit grain to prepare for unforeseen needs."
"Lastly, have Xu Ping contact people in the market involved in the grain trade and spread word that 'grain reserves are running dangerously low.' Encourage the lineages behind them to start stockpiling grain before prices climb too far, buying it up in secret."
For a time, the Cloud Arrival Trading House continued to deal in talismans and ores on the surface.
In secret, however, it was like a taotie with its enormous maw spread wide, silently devouring grain flowing out from every quarter.
Spirit stones flowed out like water, while the warehouses grew fuller by the day.
Xu Xuan knew full well that his own strength and that of the Xu Household alone could hardly stir up great waves.
Still less could they maximize the profits to be had here.
He needed to draw more people into the game and muddy the waters.
Several months later, the drought in the northern reaches of the Kingdom of Wu indeed worsened, and refugees migrated south.
Reports of the Yue Kingdom's insect infestations were confirmed, with several varieties of low-grade spirit grain confirmed to have suffered complete crop failures.
Grain prices on the market began to rise slightly, and people gradually grew unsettled.
Some shrewd people in the market had already begun withholding sales and stockpiling; undercurrents were already surging.
That day, as the splendid lamps of Cloudmist Market were first lit, the doors to the Cloud Arrival Trading House's rear courtyard remained tightly shut.
Within a secluded secret room, candlelight mingled, illuminating several figures.
Xu Xuan wore a voluminous black robe, his face hidden in the shadow of his hood and his aura obscure and difficult to discern.
He had assumed the guise of the mysterious, unfathomable "Mr. Mo," claiming to be the owner of the Cloud Arrival Trading House.
Those seated in the room were-
Senior members of several cultivation lineages that had close dealings with the trading house and were also involved in the grain trade.
These lineages were small and lacked deep foundations. They generally regarded themselves as vassals of the Azure Wood Sect and were not particularly well informed, but sound management had left them with considerable wealth.
After a moment of silence in the room, the household head surnamed Qian, who was the least able to contain himself, spoke.
He had a protruding belly. First cupping his hands, he asked with an inquiring look:
"Mr. Mo, you summoned us here urgently tonight. What important matter do you wish to discuss?"
"Does it concern the rumors circulating in the market lately?"
Xu Xuan did not answer. He extended his hand and swept it across the wooden table, neither hurried nor slow:
"You are all men with keen eyes and ears. Presumably, you already know."
"In the northern reaches of the Kingdom of Wu, a thousand miles of earth lie parched, no rain has fallen for three months, and demonic locusts are running rampant."
"In the Yue Kingdom of the Southern Wilds, poisonous miasma is breeding, insect infestations are rife, and several varieties of spirit grain have already suffered complete crop failures."
At his words, everyone nodded slightly, their expressions growing more solemn.
Although the news had not yet spread fully, each had their own channels and already knew the broad outlines.
Xu Xuan paused, his gaze sweeping over them as though unintentionally, then continued:
"Then do you know that, along the border between the Profound Sword Gate and the Azure Wood Sect, beacon towers have frequently been sending up smoke signals lately, and the number of cultivators from both sides coming and going on patrol has doubled?"
"And do you know that, within the two sects' Mission Halls, the sect contribution redemption quotas for 'Marching Pills' and 'Grain Abstention Pellets' have quietly risen by more than thirty percent?"
Xu Xuan said only this before his voice abruptly stopped.
He fell silent, but the others opened the floodgates of conversation.
"What?"
"Such a thing has happened?"
Some were so startled that they even rose from their seats.
Marching Pills and Grain Abstention Pellets were essential supplies for low-level cultivators on military campaigns.
Their main ingredients were various kinds of spirit grain and medicinal spirit herbs.
The sects' quiet increase in the redemption quotas for these items spoke for itself.
This was a signal of thorough preparations for war.
A great war could arrive at any moment.
Once war broke out between the sects, spirit grain consumption would inevitably increase, and grain prices would soon soar.
Family Head Qian's breathing involuntarily quickened as he pressed:
"Mr. Mo, your information reaches far beyond ours."
"But since you have told us all this today, what guidance do you have for us?"
"Could the trading house have some sound strategy for dealing with it?"
"With natural disasters and the scourge of war appearing at the same time, the prices of spirit grain and even ordinary grain will surely soar all the way like wild horses that have broken their reins."
Xu Xuan looked at everyone and spoke evenly.
"This is the greater tide, beyond human strength to stop."
"But..."
Xu Xuan changed tack, lowering his voice.
"If we buy openly and on a grand scale right now, we will make too conspicuous a target. It would be no different from a child carrying gold through a busy market, easily drawing the covetous eyes of powerful men and bringing disaster upon us at once."
"My Cloud Arrival Trading House is willing to share the risks with you and enjoy the profits together. To that end, I propose a 'futures agreement.'"
"A futures agreement?"
Everyone exchanged looks, finding the term utterly unfamiliar.
"What Mr. Mo means is..."
The breathing of another man, Household Head Sun, also quickened.
"Precisely."
Xu Xuan explained patiently.
"That is, we sign an agreement now stipulating that, two months from now, regardless of how market prices fluctuate, you may all purchase a fixed quantity of spirit grain from my trading house at a price thirty percent higher than the current market price."
"You need only pay a thirty-percent deposit in advance."
"This futures agreement has two advantages."
"If, two months from now, the market price is lower than our agreed price, you may voluntarily forfeit your deposit, voiding the agreement, and suffer no additional loss."
"If, two months from now, the market price is higher than the agreed price, you may still purchase the full quantity of spirit grain at today's 'lower' contract price."
"The difference in price will be your profit."
"You could say you would sit securely on the fishing terrace, guaranteed a good harvest whether drought or flood comes."
After hearing him out, everyone's faces showed a mixture of surprise and doubt, and they began whispering among themselves.
This method was unheard of.
On closer consideration, they would actually be transferring all the risks to the trading house.
They themselves would make a sure profit without losing anything!
Could such a good thing truly exist under heaven?