The road was hard to travel. Throughout Chen Caozhi's twenty days in Ye City, the weather had remained clear, but no sooner had he left the city on his homeward journey than autumn rain began falling without end. Though everyone rode on horseback in rain gear, the party also included several carriages, so progress was slow. On the twenty-ninth day of the seventh month, as they passed Chaoge in Ji Province, Ran Sheng and Shen Chiqian took several attendants and parted ways with them, heading west toward Luoyang. Since Yan had sent envoys to seek an alliance with Jin, Luoyang would be safe from Yan Army attacks for the time being, and Shen Jin, the General Who Displays Might stationed there, could breathe a sigh of relief-
Chen Caozhi entrusted Shen Chiqian with a message for his father, Shen Jin, analyzing the situation in Qin and Yan. He predicted that a rebellion would break out in Di Qin before the end of the year and that Yan would seize the opportunity to attack Qin, most likely under Murong Chui's command. But Fu Jian and Wang Meng should be able to keep Guanzhong under control and crush the rebellion. Meanwhile, the conflict between Yan's ruling Grand Preceptor, Murong Ke, and the Empress Dowager of the Kezuhun Clan would prevent Murong Chui from achieving any great success in his western campaign against Guanzhong and Long. Yan, too, would undergo a major upheaval the following year. Though the opportunity would be excellent, Shen Jin had fewer than a thousand soldiers and lacked the strength to reap substantial gains from the turmoil in the two states. What he needed to do was recruit refugees fleeing Qin's unrest, make every effort to win over the fortified settlements of Henan, stockpile grain, and train soldiers to