Rick Carlisle played a clip from a Los Angeles Lakers game.
" The Western Conference, who are currently fourth in the Western Lakers, are the real problem for me."
The screen pauses. On the screen are Shaquille O'Neal O'Neal calling for the ball in the low post and Jason Kidd observing from the perimeter.
"Everyone's looking at the Lakers ' regular season record and thinking their performance is inconsistent. But in the seven-game playoff series, they have the most consistent and dominant cornerstone in the entire league— O'Neal." Rick Carlisle pointed to the giant on the screen, "As long as he's in the paint, the Lakers can consistently score a certain number of points every game. His ability to change the defensive formation is too strong; you can't stop him one-on-one. If you try to double-team him, it will bring out the Lakers ' second strong point."
Rick Carlisle pressed play. In the video, two opposing players double-teamed O'Neal, but Kidd on the perimeter instantly spotted the opening in the defense, easily finding his cutting teammate with a bounce pass for a layup.
" Jason Kidd," Rick Carlisle analyzed. "With him there, O'Neal doesn't need to struggle to get the ball every time like before; Kidd can comfortably feed him the ball. More importantly, Kidd is the best point guard in the league at breaking double teams. If you dare to double-team the paint, he can punish you immediately."
Hearing this, Lin Qi nodded slightly. An unstoppable inside weapon paired with a top-notch outside strategist—this combination certainly seemed like a headache on paper.
"It sounds like we're in a dead end. We can't stop them one-on-one, and double-teaming them will get us broken through by Kidd's passes." Lin Qi looked at Rick Carlisle. "So, what conclusions has your data analytics department reached?"
"That's what I'm going to talk about next." Rick Carlisle smiled slightly and picked up the clipboard on the table. "Everyone's focused on O'Neal and Kidd, and it's easy to fall into the trap of trying to shut them down. But actually, the Lakers ' real 'barometer' isn't either of them, it's Sean Marion."
" Marion?" Lin Qi sat up slightly.
"Yes." Rick Carlisle wrote Marion and Odom's names on the whiteboard. " O'Neal guarantees the Lakers ' floor, but Marion determines whether the Lakers can win tough games. The data shows that when Marion can make a lot of cuts, grab offensive rebounds, and execute fast breaks, the Lakers are almost unbeatable. But when he's contained, Lakers rely solely on half-court sets, their winning percentage drops significantly."
Rick Carlisle continued, " Marion and Odom are both very athletic forwards, good at rebounding and fast breaks. However, they have a very obvious weakness: they lack a consistent three-point shot."
Rick Carlisle drew several heavy crosses over the names of the three men with his pen.
"It's not just Marion and Odom; Jason Kidd's three-point shooting is also inconsistent. Right now, Kidd's shooting is still largely dependent on luck." Rick Carlisle looked at Lin Qi and pointed out the Lakers ' most fatal structural flaw. "In other words, apart from O'Neal in the paint, none of the Lakers ' three core ball-handlers and forwards possess the ability to punish opponents' collapsed defenses with their three-point shooting."
If three or four players in a team's starting lineup don't pose a three-point threat, then the strategy for defending that team becomes extremely simple.
"So, our defensive strategy is clear," Lin Qi said, following Rick Carlisle's line of thought, "To tighten the defensive line."
"Absolutely correct." Rick Carlisle drew a dense circle in the paint on the whiteboard. "On defense, we'll have Ben Wallace guard O'Neal one-on-one. Big Ben's job isn't to shut him down, but to use his body to hold him off, wear him down, and make it difficult for him to receive the ball. Everyone else, except Big Ben, should collapse into the paint."
Rick Carlisle pointed to the outside with the tip of his pen. "We'll leave Kidd, Marion, and Odom shooting from beyond the three-point line. Our forwards— Pierce, Artest, Bowen —have enough size to box them out, cut off Marion's cuts, and protect the defensive rebounds."
Lin Qi looked at the tactical board, frowned slightly, and asked a question, "Completely leave them open to shoot? What if Kidd or Marion suddenly gets hot in a game and sinks those damn three-pointers? You know, in the playoffs, sometimes a few unexpected shots can steal a victory."
Rick Carlisle didn't deny the risk. He put down his pen and said calmly, "That's probability. Lin Qi, in a single game, or in a small sample like the first or second quarter, the probability is random. Kidd could indeed make 4 of 5 three-pointers in a game, and then we'd accept it."
"But," Rick Carlisle's tone shifted, his gaze becoming incredibly firm, "The playoffs are a best-of-seven series. When the sample size is extended to four, six, or even seven games, when their open shots from the perimeter accumulate to dozens of times, the probability is no longer random; it becomes a certainty."
Rick Carlisle pointed to Kidd and Marion's names. "Their three-point shooting percentages this season are getting lower and lower. So we collapse the court and let them shoot. It's possible for them to make four or five threes in a game, and we accept that. But over seven games, they can't be on fire every single time. On average, their shooting percentage will drop back to where it should be. Then, they'll start to bend the rim themselves."
This extremely pragmatic defensive approach, which focuses solely on the expected value of large samples, is Rick Carlisle's strength as a tactical coach.
"And what about the offensive end?" Lin Qi had no further questions.
"On offense, we need to target O'Neal's defensive habits." Rick Carlisle erased the defensive diagram and drew a half-court offensive positioning diagram.
"Because of his size, O'Neal always retreated to the paint to protect the rim when defending pick-and-rolls and outside shots; he simply couldn't reach beyond the three-point line." Rick Carlisle drew a few dots beyond the three-point line.
" Kevin ( Garnett ) has three-point range, Rasheed can shoot, Brad Miller has also improved his three-point shooting this season, plus Wang Zhizhi, who is a complete shooter." Rick Carlisle put down his pen, "Except for Big Ben, all of our interior players can stretch to the three-point line."
Rick Carlisle pointed to the still image of O'Neal on the screen. "In the game, we spread out all the big men. If O'Neal continues to stay under the basket, our inside players will be shooting open threes; if he's forced to run out to the three-point line to defend..."
"Then he'll be exhausted," Lin Qi chimed in. "And the Lakers ' paint will be completely open, allowing Pierce and his teammates to drive and score at will."
"That's right." Rick Carlisle nodded. "A center weighing over 300 pounds, forced to run back and forth on the perimeter all game, will be severely exhausted by the fourth quarter. He won't be able to defend, and he won't even have the strength to box out on offense."
Rick Carlisle's analysis is plain and objective, without any exaggerated rhetoric, but it is like a scalpel, dissecting the seemingly invincible Los Angeles Lakers clearly.
From O'Neal's weakness in relegation to Kidd and Marion's shortcomings in three-point shooting, Boston has very clear solutions on both offense and defense.
Lin Qi was silent for two seconds, then nodded.
"Then let's proceed according to your plan."
Rick Carlisle nodded, said nothing more, and put the documents on the table into a file folder.
Lin Qi turned around, pushed open the door, and walked out.