Rick Carlisle looked serious, memories of the NBA Finals resurfacing.
"Do you remember the crucial moments of the NBA Finals June?" Lin Qi calmly recounted, "Both sides were exhausted, their plays were no longer effective, and neither team scored for two consecutive possessions. Big Ben and O'Neal were vying for position in the low post, and the paint was packed with players. Our defensive rotations shut down the Lakers ' perimeter, and neither side could even make an easy pass."
"In that situation, does the so-called 'high expectation zone' in the data report still exist? A forced pass to the basket is a turnover, a pass to the corner is a steal. Those open shots that originally had an expectation of 1.15 points, when the defense is fully targeted, their actual expectation is even close to zero."
Rick Carlisle quietly continued, "Back then, only Jordan stepped up."
Yes, Michael Jordan.
Lin Qi nodded. " Jordan received the ball near the extension of the right free throw line, which is the inefficient area marked in red in all efficiency models. Our players' defensive movements were very standard; their hands were already within Jordan's line of sight when he jumped."
"Back up, take a jab step, stop abruptly and pull up for a mid-range jumper."
"Four consecutive rounds, four long twos, all hit, sealing the victory."
The study fell silent, save for the faint crackling of the charcoal fire.
Lin Qi placed his hands flat on the table and looked directly at Rick Carlisle.
"This is the most common pitfall for those who believe in data: in a normal sample, constants determine the lower limit of a team's tactics. But in decisive moments, superstars are the variables in statistics."
Rick Carlisle repeated in a low voice, "Variables..."
"The league-wide average mid-range expected value of 0.82 points is a mediocre average calculated by combining the data of hundreds of ordinary players taking hasty shots near the end of the shot clock."
"More importantly, it's about the ability to create offense independently. In a deadlock situation where the play can't be executed, teammates have no open spaces, and there are only five seconds left on the shot clock, a superstar can conjure up a shot from that position with a degree of controllable interference."
Lin Qi picked up a pen and wrote two words on the draft paper on the table: game theory, Nash equilibrium.
"From a game theory perspective, if a team completely abandons the mid-range shot and simplifies its tactical choices to 'dribbling in the paint' and 'three-point shooting,' then its defensive strategies become extremely simple in the eyes of top playoff opponents."
Lin Qi looked up at Rick Carlisle: "The defense only needs to do two things: First, the center should completely collapse into the three-second zone to protect the rim. Second, the perimeter defenders should resolutely contest three-pointers, preferring to let you drive rather than give you an easy opportunity to jump and shoot a three-pointer. As for the entire four or five-meter wide mid-range area from the three-point line to the paint, the defense can completely leave it undefended."
"When you can't punish open mid-range shots, your opponents can use the energy and attention they would have used to defend the mid-range to specifically guard your rim and three-pointers. As a result, the defensive resistance in your originally efficient areas will increase exponentially, with you facing heavy sieges under the basket and tight defense outside the three-point line, leading to a sharp increase in your turnover rate."
Rick Carlisle looked at the words on the draft paper, and his expression became completely clear.
"In other words, the existence of mid-range distance is itself key to maintaining spatial balance," Rick Carlisle said.
"Absolutely correct."
Lin Qi said, "Mid-range shooting isn't about taking more shots, but it must always be a loaded gun positioned against the opponent's defensive formation. Only when center doesn't dare to retreat to the basket at will, and defenders don't dare to recklessly stick to the perimeter, can the space in the paint and the three-point line be truly opened up."
Lin Qi opened the right drawer of the desk, took out a technical evaluation form that had not been made public before, and handed it to Rick Carlisle.
"When I built the data model eight years ago, I knew that pure shot distribution was just the foundation. The truly advanced metric is a player's 'defensive pull' (and the ability to break the mean in specific areas)."
Rick Carlisle took the evaluation sheet, which detailed Dwyane Wade's advanced tracking data over the past year and during the Europe tour.
"That's why we chose to select Wade with the 13th pick in last year's draft and decided to give him clear offensive responsibility in the new season."
Lin Qi pointed to the running and breakthrough points above.
" Wade's tactical value cannot be measured solely by his individual scoring. He possesses the fastest first-step acceleration in the league and an extremely strong desire to finish in the paint. When he drives to the basket from the 45-degree angle, his impact is like a moving magnet across the half-court."
"As soon as he gets past the first line of defense and rushes into the paint, the opposing center has to leave his position to block him, and the defender on the opposite corner has to drop in to fill the gap. Wade's breakthrough move can forcefully compress the opponent's originally spread-out defensive formation into the narrow area of the three-second zone."
Lin Qi drew the gaps after the defense collapsed on the draft paper.
"The moment the defensive formation is forced to contract inward, the previously crowded areas on both sides of the elbows will make room for more."
"At this point in time, whether Kevin Garnett cuts from the high post to the free-throw line or Chris Paul Pierce receives the ball on the wing, they no longer face tight, tenacious defense, but rather high-quality mid-range shooting opportunities after the formation has been stretched and interference has been greatly reduced."
Lin Qi looked at Rick Carlisle and concluded.
"Use Wade's penetration in the paint to compress the defensive space, and then punish that collapse with Garnett and Pierce's mid-range shots. Combining the strengths of these three players is the only way to maintain offensive consistency during the toughest moments of the playoffs."
"During the regular season, we still need to maintain the pace of our offensive and defensive transitions, and continue to emphasize defensive discipline and open three-pointers. But at the same time, the coaching staff must use the physicality of the regular season to thoroughly hone this understanding of using penetration to create mid-range finishes into the team's tactical instinct."
Rick Carlisle leaned back in his chair and let out a long sigh.
The doubts and tactical conflicts that had been swirling in his mind all summer were finally cleared up at this moment.
This is not a step backward, nor is it a compromise with inefficiency. Rather, it is a profound revision of the previously rigid data dogma after learning the harsh lessons of the NBA Finals defeat.
The old-school coach's trust in superstars' abilities and the deep logic of modern spatial theory found their perfect balance in this study.
Rick Carlisle reached out, closed the "Absolute Rationality Report" written by Massachusetts Institute of Technology analysts on the table, and put it into the side pocket of his briefcase. Then, he carefully put away the high-level spatial tracking data that Lin Qi had handed him, placed it in the main compartment, and zipped it up.
"I understand how to prioritize tactics in the upcoming training camp."
Rick Carlisle stood up, buttoned his suit jacket, and regained his usual calm and meticulous coaching demeanor. "At tomorrow morning's coaching staff meeting, I will readjust the mid-range offensive tactics ratio for Kevin and Chris Paul, and at the same time, I will focus on practicing Dwyane's dribble-drive-and-kick in full-court scrimmages."
"Go, Rick."
Lin Qi stood up to see him off, his gaze calm. "How the outside world hypes up Michael Lewis's book is their business. We just need to focus on playing our own game."
Rick Carlisle nodded, said nothing more, and turned to leave the study.