Reminder

"We have the coordinates, but the problem is that we can't determine the time or the earthquake intensity."

These are the two major problems troubling Shen Qi: time, location, and intensity. These three factors determine how to respond to a potential earthquake.

As for whether the four sets of coordinates are accurate, Shen Qi doesn't know; it needs to be verified.

The four sets of coordinates are located in the North and South Pacific Oceans and are associated with the United States, Russia, and New Zealand.

This was a secret, Shen Qi dared not tell anyone, otherwise it might cause panic among the local residents.

Data shows that Unimark Island in the United States has 39 permanent residents, Nikolskoye Island in Russia has 22 permanent residents, and Campbell Island in New Zealand has 10 permanent residents.

Although the number of animals on the three islands of Unimak Island, Nikolskoye Island, and Campbell Island far exceeds the number of humans, there are still a very small number of humans active on the islands, including the indigenous people and some biologists or geologists engaged in scientific exploration.

Out of a sense of conscience as a scientific researcher, Shen Qi immediately emailed the USGS, the Russian Seismological Network, and the New Zealand Seismological Network.

In the email, Shen Qi identified himself as Shen Qi, a professor in the Princeton Mathematics Department, and stated that his calculations indicated an earthquake was likely to occur at a certain coordinate in his country.

Time of earthquake unknown.

Earthquake intensity unknown.

If your network detects an earthquake of magnitude 2.0 or higher at this location in the near future, please contact me immediately. Thank you.

At the same time, Shen Qi compiled a concise paper entitled "Research on a New Earthquake Model".

In this popular science paper, Shen Qi described the principles of earthquakes in simple language and included the core mathematical formulas he derived.

The specific derivation and calculation process of this formula will be omitted.

Computer Science programming based on mathematical models will not be discussed at all.

In this article, Shen Qi only discusses the theoretical principles of the Mathematical Physics model of earthquakes, without mentioning any specific latitude and longitude coordinates.

The North Pacific, the South Pacific, Unimak Island, Campbell Island —those are absolutely not mentioned.

Research findings on earthquake models are commonplace, and Shen Qi is not the first person to publish research results on earthquake models.

World-renowned earthquake models include the Gutenberg- Richter model, the Bridge-Nobov model, and others.

The model is here; let whoever wants to make predictions do so.

Anyway, I, Old Shen, never predict earthquakes in public.

Shen Qi posted the popular science version of his paper, "Research on a New Earthquake Model," on arVix and breathed a sigh of relief; his task was complete.

Shen Qi has a high profile in the United States, USGS responded to Shen Qi immediately:

"Professor Shen, your email has been received."

Just from this one sentence, it's impossible to tell what the USGS' stance is.

Later, the Russian Seismological Network replied to Shen Qi, and the Russians' attitude was quite direct:

"Our Russian Seismological Network has thousands of people engaged in earthquake research, prediction, and monitoring. Thank you for the reminder, but we have faith in our team. Thank you."

New Zealand, the smallest country in terms of land area, was the last to reply to Shen Qi; the New Zealand Seismological Network even subtly mocked Shen Qi.

"My online cat recently made a more accurate prediction. In any case, I'm grateful for Professor Shen's reminder."

Hey, you New Zealand, you actually mocked me... Shen Qi was still a little annoyed, regardless of whether his prediction was accurate or not, his intentions were good.

Theory always precedes application. Who would readily believe an unverified theory, especially one related to natural disasters?

Once a national-level natural disaster warning is issued, the impact is extremely significant.

"You... sigh, you actually did it after all." Ou Ye was uneasy. She had seen Shen Qi's paper, "Research on a New Earthquake Model," on arVix.

Shen Qi explained, "This is purely theoretical research. Humans have been systematically building earthquake models since the 19th century; it's routine work. Our ancestor Zhang Heng lived during the Han Dynasty. Was he arrested by the Han Dynasty government? No, right? Zhang Heng lived to be over sixty, which was considered very long-lived in ancient times, and he didn't incur any outrage from the gods or men."

Ou Ye was still uneasy. "Qi, I have a nagging feeling..."

Shen Qi's papers on arVix are conventional earthquake model theory research papers, which have attracted some attention in the scientific community.

This paper is posted on the physics section of arVix, and it is Shen Qi's second publicly published physics paper.

My first physics paper was on Condensed Matter Physics and has been published in PRL.

The Mathematics Community and Physics Community are mostly talking about Shen Qi's successful cross-disciplinary ventures, and not many people are really paying attention to Shen Qi conventional earthquake model paper.

Only a very small number of people worldwide know that Shen Qi predicted the specific coordinates where earthquakes might occur.

Shen Qi follows news reports from the United States, Russia, and New Zealand every day.

The USGS, the Russian Seismological Network, and the New Zealand Seismological Network have not issued any earthquake or tsunami warnings for the waters off Unimak Island, Nikolskoye Island, or Campbell Island.

A month has passed, and the world is at peace.

Life returned to normal, Ou Ye gradually forgot about Shen Qi's wild ideas. This was her second semester pursuing her doctorate at Princeton, and she became busy with a research project.

Zhou Yu'an was quite interested in the new earthquake model proposed by Shen Qi, which involved dealing with some Partial Differential Equations, an area in which Zhou Yu'an was an expert.

"Did you make a mistake somewhere?" Zhou Yu'an asked, as he drank coffee in Shen Qi's office.

While browsing the news with the mouse, Shen Qi said, "It's normal to make a mistake. I also hope I'm wrong. World peace and the absence of disasters are the situation I most want to see."

Immediately after the words were spoken, the International Seismological Centre released a new message on its official website:

"A magnitude 5.5 earthquake struck New Zealand at approximately 5:32 p. m. Greenwich Mean Time today. The epicenter was located 188 kilometers south of Campbell Island (56°34′S, 168°05′E) at a depth of 33 kilometers."

"This... there's been an earthquake in New Zealand..." Shen Qi hadn't expected the news to come so suddenly.

"This... Master Shen, you..." Zhou Yu'an approached Shen Qi with mixed feelings, and together they watched the latest news released by the International Seismological Centre.

It is incredible that an ordinary person could predict an earthquake.

A 5.5 magnitude earthquake signifies disaster and will inevitably cause harm to a country.

"Fortunately, the epicenter was located on the Pacific seabed, about 200 kilometers from Campbell Island, New Zealand. There are only 10 permanent residents on the island, so they should be safe. Earthquakes below magnitude 6.5 usually do not produce destructive tsunamis." The two sets of coordinates that Shen Qi had previously sent to the New Zealand Seismological Network were [55 degrees south latitude, 167 degrees east longitude] and [55 degrees south latitude, 167 degrees west longitude].

The New Zealand earthquake coordinates, recently released by the International Seismological Centre, are [56°34′S, 168°05′E].

This coordinate deviates from Shen Qi's previous prediction by 1 degree in latitude and longitude, with an error distance of nearly 100 kilometers.

Zhou Yu'an broke out in a cold sweat. "100 kilometers on Earth is only about 0.15 millimeters on a globe. Shen Qi, your prediction accuracy is already quite high. You, you, you're terrifying..."