The Arithmetic of the Fortune-Teller
There's an NBA game at 11:30 this morning, Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals, Warriors vs. Lakers.
Shen Qi accessed the NBA data website, downloaded all the data related to the Warriors and Lakers, and, taking into account the possibility of bookmakers manipulating the market and other unexpected factors, quickly compiled a basic set of data and entered "One Two Three, three".
Shen Qi's deduction instruction was: Calculate the score between the Warriors and the Lakers.
Many ordinary people can guess the score of a football match correctly.
Predicting basketball scores becomes exponentially more difficult.
"One Two Three" immediately executes the calculation instruction. "This simulation calculation will last 31 minutes... 1%... Simulating... 2%..."
The progress bar is moving forward at a speed visible to the naked eye.
The "One Two Three" method uses exhaustive search, which is one of the many algorithms set up by Shen Qi.
"One Two Three" first lists all the score results of the Warriors vs. Lakers, from "1-0" to "1728-1725".
A basketball game with a score of 1-0 only occurs when one team makes a free throw and the other team scores zero points throughout the entire game.
The score of 1728 to 1725 represents another extreme, with both teams immediately shooting three-pointers after inbounding the ball and making them all.
The probability of these two extreme scores, which are theoretically possible but have never occurred in official matches, is extremely low.
"One Two Three" follows the principle of exhaustive search, listing extreme events and calculating their probability of triggering.
The final calculation shows that the probability of triggering "1 to 0" and "1728 to 1725" is less than one in ten million.
The score with the highest probability of triggering this result is 98-99, with the Warriors narrowly losing to the Lakers at home.
It was 11:30 in the blink of an eye, and the Warriors vs. Lakers game began. Shen Qi watched the live stream online.
In Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals, either outcome is acceptable.
Shen Qi was focused on the score.
In the first quarter, the Warriors completely dominated the Lakers, leading 33-18.
In the second quarter, the Lakers narrowed the gap by some points.
The score at halftime was Warriors 68-60 Lakers.
The two teams scored a total of 128 points in the first half, while the highest probability score predicted by "One Two Three" was "98 to 99", with a total score of 197.
"The two teams scored a total of 69 points in the second half?" Shen Qi usually watches the NBA, and it's common for teams like the Warriors to score 30 or 40 points in a quarter.
Entering the third quarter, the Lakers continued to chase the score. In this quarter, the Warriors' field goal percentage was a pitiful 17%, and the Warriors scored an unbelievable 12 points.
The Lakers entered the fourth quarter with a 3-point lead and ultimately defeated the Warriors 99-98 on Lakers road, advancing to the NBA Finals.
"As expected, that's the score. Pretty accurate." Shen Qi tapped the computer screen lightly, acknowledging "One Two Three's" excellent performance.
Even basketball scores can be predicted with a high probability. If we follow this line of thought, Shen Qi could definitely become a gambling king if he ventures into the gambling industry.
But Shen Qi swore to his Doctoral Supervisor, Professor Muller, that he would never gamble in his life.
If Shen Qi wanted to become the gambling king, he would have already become one.
He doesn't need to rely on Computer Science models; he's confident he can dominate at the gambling table or online using only his human brain.
Life did not force Shen Qi to the point of breaking his vows and using his knowledge and skills to gamble for money.
Shen Qi's ultimate goal in designing the "One Two Three" strategy was definitely not to gamble on football.
The ultimate goal, of course, is to serve science.
Knock knock knock.
Just then, someone knocked on Shen Qi's office door.
Shen Qi: "Please come in."
A young woman entered; she was Cui Xiaoyi, the human resources clerk at the center.
Cui Xiaoyi is a long-time employee of the center; Cui Xiaoyi joined when the center was first established.
When Cui Xiaoyi arrived, she was in her early twenties, a beautiful and youthful girl.
Six or seven years have passed in the blink of an eye, and the beautiful girl has become a beautiful older sister.
Cui Xiaoyi walked to Shen Qi's desk looking embarrassed. She put her hands behind her back and said, "I'm sorry, Director Shen."
Shen Qi was puzzled. "Xiao Yi, what did you do to wrong me?"
Cui Xiaoyi handed an envelope to Shen Qi, then lowered her head shyly.
Shen Qi hesitated for a moment, then didn't take the envelope.
Cui Xiaoyi felt even more embarrassed. She silently placed the envelope on Shen Qi's desk. The envelope had three words written on it: Resignation Letter.
It's normal for employees to come and go in any organization.
Cui Xiaoyi submitted her resignation, and Shen Qi couldn't possibly stop her from leaving.
Shen Qi was puzzled. "Xiao Yi, you were doing so well, why do you suddenly want to quit? Can you tell me your true thoughts?"
"Oh, of course." Cui Xiaoyi nodded. She was the center's human resources clerk. Over the years, some employees had left the center. The departing employees would first have a meeting with Cui Xiaoyi to explain the reasons for leaving, and then have a meeting with Shen Qi.
Cui Xiaoyi had spoken with her yesterday, and according to procedure, she came to meet with the center director today, hoping that Director Shen could approve her resignation application as soon as possible.
Cui Xiaoyi stammered, "My boyfriend... he works in our hometown. I'm almost 30 years old, Director Shen, you know what I mean."
Shen Qi asked, "Which boyfriend of yours?"
Cui Xiaoyi stomped her foot. "How many boyfriends can I possibly have? He's the only one I've officially been in a relationship with!"
"Oh, a long-distance relationship between people from the same hometown, I see. Xiaoyi, what does your boyfriend do for a living?"
"Tourism; he runs a resort in the suburbs of our hometown."
"Sure, boss."
"No, he did it in partnership with someone; he only owns a very small portion of the shares."
Cui Xiaoyi's boyfriend, perhaps already at the level of fiancé, runs a tourist resort business in his hometown. Shen Qi is at a loss; Shen Qi can't possibly arrange for Cui Xiaoyi 'Cui Xiaoyi boyfriend to work in the capital to ease her longing for him.
"Xiaoyi, you are a veteran of our center and have made indelible contributions to its development and growth. I feel extremely sorry that you have submitted your resignation, but I still respect your choice. You have the right to choose any life you want to live." Shen Qi said sincerely. No leader wants to see an excellent employee leave the team.
"Thank you, thank you for your understanding, Director Shen!" Cui Xiaoyi's eyes were filled with tears. She was also reluctant to leave the center and to leave Director Shen, her good leader.
Shen Qi was also moved, and he took out a tissue and handed it to Cui Xiaoyi.
Xiao Yi went back to her hometown to get married and have children; this is a perfectly natural thing, protected by law. Shen Qi could only feel regret and offer his blessings. "Xiao Yi, I sincerely wish you a happy and fulfilling life together. Before you leave, I have a gift for you."
"I'm so sorry, Director Shen, I don't deserve this."
"No, no, no, this is what I, as the center director, should do. Xiaoyi, what's your zodiac sign?"
"Huh? I'm a Sagittarius."
Where is your boyfriend?
He's a Libra.
"Xiaoyi, what's your zodiac sign? Oh, right, you're a Dragon. It's written in your profile. And what's your boyfriend's zodiac sign?"
"He was born in the Year of the Ox... Director Shen, what's going on? Are you here to give a gift or to have your fortune told?"