Lin Shicheng and Chen Xi came out from Suite and walked along the hotel corridor toward the elevator.
Chen Xi is holding the laptop in his arms, and his mind is still thinking about what Zhao Chen just said - "Lock up".
Lin Shicheng walked in front, his suit jacket on his arm, his tie half loose, his steps slow.
Leather shoes made almost no sound when stepping on the carpet in the corridor.
Neither of them spoke, and it wasn't until the elevator door closed that Chen Xi asked the question he had been holding back.
"Lawyer Lin, you just said that asset concentration is high and black swan risks are high--
Are you really worried, or are you just fulfilling your risk control duties?"
Lin Shicheng turned his head and glanced at her.
The lights in the elevator refracted a slender arc of light on his lenses, making it difficult to see his eyes clearly behind the lenses.
"What do you think?"
"I think you have both." Chen
Xi leaned on the elevator handrail,
"You have followed him for so long, so it is impossible that you don't know his investment style.
When he said 'lock up', it was not a decision he made at once, but he thought about it for a long time."
Lin Shicheng did not answer the call.
The elevator stopped at the floor where Era Vanguard New York Office was located, and the two of them walked out one after the other.
There were only a few analysts working overtime in the office, and the data stream scrolled silently on Bloomberg Terminal's screen.
Lin Shicheng put his suit jacket on the back of the chair, sat at his desk, opened his notebook,
Read through the locking points just recorded in Suite from beginning to end.
"I knew from the first day I cooperated with him that this person is not a short-term person."
Lin Shicheng finally spoke, his voice was not high, but every word was clear in the quiet office.
"Last November, he asked me to calculate Liquidation Threshold on the plane. After finishing the calculation, he said something--
'Nine point ninety-nine percent, it's the pause line, not the finish line.'
At that time, I knew that his goal on Nvidia was not to make money, but to occupy a position.
A position that no one else can ever take away.
So today he said to lock the position, I am not surprised at all.
It's not because he is very optimistic about Nvidia, but because his investment logic is based on industry trends, not stock price fluctuations.
As long as the AI Computing Power track does not undergo a fundamental reversal, he will have the confidence to never sell.
This is not Financial Investment - this is Monetizing Insight.
His knowledge told him that Nvidia will become a much larger existence in the future than it is now.
And what he has to do is to occupy his seat before that existence arrives, and then sit still."
Chen Xi Put the computer on the desk and sit down on the chair next to it.
"I understand this logic. But there is still a difference between locking up a position and never selling it.
You said Monetizing Insight-his understanding has indeed always been one step ahead of the market.
When the warehouse was opened in November last year, everyone in Wall Street was saying that Nvidia's channel inventory could not be cleared;
When he submitted his HSR in January this year, everyone was waiting to see him liquidate his position.
The result? The channel inventory was cleared, Data Center began to increase month-on-month, and the demand for AI training was personally stamped by Huang Renxun.
He stepped into the market's blind spot every step of the way."
She paused,
"But I still want to ask - where are the boundaries of concentrated investment?
He now bets nearly 1.4 billion US Dollar on Nvidia,
More than six billion US Dollar were staked on Tesla, and these two tickets together accounted for the vast majority of the total assets of Era Vanguard.
If one day, his perception and the market deviate--"
"The deviation itself becomes the biggest risk."
Lin Shicheng took her words, took off his glasses and wiped the lenses,
"My worry was never that he was wrong. My worry was that he put all his eggs in one basket.
And this basket was made by himself - he was so confident in this basket that he could ignore any external signals.
You just said that concentrated investment is the reason why he makes money, that's right.
But concentrated investment may also be the reason why he loses money.
My job is not to applaud when he says 'lock in'.
My job is to ask him - if this basket does crack a crack, do you have any spare string?"
He put his glasses back on, opened his notebook, and pointed at the questions he had just written on it.
"So there are two prerequisites - Huang Renxun resigns, or AI proves to be a bubble.
These two conditions are not legal provisions, but his own judgment standards.
But the problem is that the judgment criteria themselves are also subjective.
If Huang Renxun really retires, his successor may be good too,
But Zhao Zong's standard is 'unless Huang Renxun leaves Nvidia', then will we sell it then?
If AI is indeed slow to advance in some areas,
But if it's not proven to be a bubble, how can we judge?"
Chen Xi was silent for a few seconds.
She remembered that in May's Fight to the Death, Zhao Chen did not choose to cut the flesh near 178 US Dollar, but put all the cash on it to supplement the pledge.
That kind of decision-making was correct at that time, but what if he makes the same decision next time but in the wrong direction?
"He never said he would never sell," she said,
"What he said is--unless two conditions are triggered."
"In legal terms, that's the closest thing to 'never sell.'"
Lin Shicheng said,
"But you know what - that's what I admire most about him.
He is the strangest investor I have ever met.
When everyone was running out, he rushed in, but when he rushed, he tied a safety rope at every step.
In the round of covering positions in May, he pledged 3.4 million shares of Tesla, pushing Liquidation Threshold from 178 to 148.
At that time, Short Sellers was still making money and the stock price was still falling, but he was already leaving a way out for himself.
Today he said locking up positions, which seems to be giving up risk control.
But in fact - he set extremely harsh conditions for the reduction, not to open doors of convenience, but to close all doors.
He knew that once he locked up the position, he would not be able to sell it easily, so he simply cut off all the intermediate options that might make him sway."
Chen Xi turned the laptop screen over. Above was the position summary table of Nvidia--
Approximately 94.1 million shares, accounting for approximately 15.5% of the total share capital, with a total investment of approximately 13.66 billion US Dollar, and a comprehensive weighted cost of approximately 145.2 US Dollar.
She used the mouse to select the line of comments next to the position and enlarged it--
"Unless Huang Renxun leaves Nvidia, or AI proves to be a bubble, one share of these stocks will not be sold."
She stared at the words for a long time, then raised her head.
"That's it. I wrote this sentence in Schedule 13D Amendment Filing -
'Era Vanguard has decided to allocate the above positions to Permanent Core Assets for the long term.
If there are no major changes in management or systemic risks in the industry, the Fund has no intention to reduce its holdings. 'Is this enough?"
"One more thing."
Lin Shicheng picked up Fountain Pen and filled in a line of writing on the notebook, then pushed the paper to her,
"Era Vanguard understands and accepts the full volatility consequences of centralized allocation."
Chen Xi read this sentence from the beginning, nodded, and started typing on the keyboard.
The office was so quiet that only the sound of the keyboard and the low sound of Bloomberg Terminal electricity were left.
The barge whistle on the Hudson River occasionally drifted in from the window, and no one said anything more in this quiet evening--
The risks that should be recognized have been confirmed, and all escape routes that should be left have been left.