When Lin Shicheng knocked on Zhao Chen Suite's door again, he did not hold any documents or notebook in his hand.
He just took off his suit jacket and put it on the hanger at the door, loosened his tie, and sat down on the sofa opposite Zhao Chen.
Chen Xi has gone back to the office to deal with the wording of Schedule 13D Amendment Filing,
There were only two of them in the room. The Hudson River outside the window glowed with a fine golden light in the afternoon sun.
There are a few New York people sunbathing scattered on the Central Park lawn.
"Zhao Zong, I'm already preparing the lock-in documents."
Lin Shicheng got straight to the point and spoke in a slower tone than usual.
"But there is one thing I want to tell you again as a lawyer and a friend."
Zhao Chen put down the tea cup in his hand, leaned on the back of the sofa, and nodded slightly, indicating for him to continue.
"Era Vanguard currently holds approximately 94.1 million shares of Nvidia,
Accounting for 15.5% of the total share capital, the total investment is approximately 13.66 billion US Dollar.
Tesla has about 26 million shares, accounting for about 14.8% of the total share capital, and the total investment is about 6.67 billion US Dollar.
Together, these two tickets account for the vast majority of Era Vanguard's total assets."
Lin Shicheng didn't look through any files. He didn't need to look up these numbers anymore.
"If--I'm just saying if--Huang Renxun something happens tomorrow,
Or AI is subverted by a technical route that we didn't expect at all,
The net value of Era Vanguard will undergo extremely severe fluctuations in a very short period of time.
Concentrated investment is indeed the reason why you make money, but concentrated investment may also be the reason why you lose money.
My job is not to applaud when you say 'lock in'.
My job is to tell you that you made this basket with your own hands and that you are so confident in it that you can ignore any external signals.
In history, most of the major investment mistakes were not due to being too accurate, but because they were too accurate."
Zhao Chen was silent for a few seconds, then picked up the tea cup and took a sip.
The tea was already a little cold. He put the cup back on the coffee table, and the bottom of the cup hit the glass with a light and clear crunching sound.
"Lawyer Lin, you are right.
Concentrated investing is the reason why I make money, and it may also be the reason why I lose money.
But you are mistaken about one thing - this is not concentrated investment, this is concentrated cognition."
He held up a finger,
"The reason why I dare to bet heavily on Nvidia and Tesla,
It's not that I have confidence in the stock prices of these two companies, but that I have confidence in the underlying logic they represent.
AI Computing Power and New Energy are the two most certain long tracks in this era.
As long as there is no fundamental reversal in these two tracks, Era Vanguard's positions do not need to be diversified.
The 'external signal' you just mentioned - Huang Renxun resigned, AI was falsified -
I agree with these two, so I set these two prerequisites.
But any other short-term fluctuation--
The stock price fell from three hundred to two hundred, from two hundred to one hundred, or even lower--
These are not external signals, these are market sentiments.
Fluctuations in market sentiment are not risks, but opportunities.
There is only one real risk:
You've misunderstood the underlying logic.
As long as the underlying logic is correct, any drop in the stock price will be temporary;
The underlying logic is wrong, no matter how much the stock price rises, it will be a bubble."
He leaned back on the sofa and tapped his fingers on the armrest twice.
"I know what you're worried about.
You worry that I'm putting all my eggs in one basket, and I'm too confident in that basket.
But you forgot one thing - this basket was not compiled by me, but by the laws of industry.
Huang Renxun spent more than 20 years building CUDA ecosystem.
The AI training and inference loads of the world's ultra-large-scale Data Center customers all run on Nvidia's GPUs. This is not something that can be changed overnight.
The exponential growth in demand for AI Computing Power is not my judgment, it is the law of the industry itself.
What I do is not to predict this law, but to believe in this law earlier than the market."
Lin Shicheng did not answer immediately.
He opened and closed the Financial Report summary on the coffee table, then took a sip from the already cold cup of coffee in front of him.
The bitter taste spread on the tip of his tongue, making his thoughts become extremely clear.
"So what you are saying is that risk control is not about diversifying positions, but about a deeper understanding of industry trends."
"Yes. Risk control is not about putting eggs into different baskets, it is about putting the baskets on the floor that you really understand.
Most investors diversify their holdings because they don't know enough about each company they hold. They use diversification to hedge against ignorance.
I'm not saying ignorance is wrong - everyone has their own limits of ability.
But if you really understand a company, an industry, and a track,
You should put all your eggs in that basket and keep an eye on it."
He picked up the tea cup and poured some hot water into it, and the mellow taste of Pu'er melted again on the tip of his tongue.
The clouds outside the window dispersed at some point, and the sun once again filled the entire Living Room,
The Financial Report abstract on the coffee table, which had been turned over many times, shone slightly.
Lin Shicheng watched him finish the tea and put down the teapot,
When he leaned back on the sofa again, he slowly spoke, his voice softer than before,
It is no longer the prudence of the person in charge of risk control,
It's more like colleagues who understand each other well after going through this long battle.
"Do you know what I admire most about you?
I have seen a lot of investors who make concentrated allocations, but the vast majority of them have weak confidence--
They just bet in the right direction and then repeatedly increase their bets based on luck.
You are not.
Your confidence grows from every statement, every industry survey, and every late-night phone call.
I've seen those technical documents you worked overtime to read--
Degradation Curve of Energy Storage Materials, GPU architecture iteration path, on-chain hash verification of Bitcoin.
You are not betting, you are using the most primitive method to confirm all uncertain variables one by one.
When you finally make the decision to lock up your position, others may think you are taking a risk, but in fact, there is almost no unknown for you."
He stood up and walked to the window.
Outside the window, the freighter he had noticed before had passed the Hudson River curve and was slowly approaching the port.
The ship has a deep draft and the deck is packed with containers, casting neat shadows in the afternoon sun.
"That basket--I'm not guarding it for you.
I just tamp the floor so that you don't have to think about the earthquake.
I will sign all the lock-up documents today."
Zhao Chen didn't stand up to see him off, but just picked up the tea cup and raised it towards him.
Lin Shicheng paused at the door without looking back, then opened the door and walked out.
When the door closed, Zhao Chen finished the cool Pu'er, put down the cup, and looked back to the river flowing to the sea outside the window.