The next day.
10:47 am.
A-share has been open for more than an hour.
The handicap of Wuliangye is still strong.
Shanxi Fenjiu also did not show an obvious decline.
The first reduction in positions just completed the day before did not have any visible impact on the market.
On the trading terminal of Henglong Capital, two sell orders have been completely archived.
Wuliangye.
240 shares.
Shanxi Fenjiu.
432 shares.
Position reduction completed.
The remaining positions returned to 2160 shares and 3888 shares respectively.
Chen Xi stood in front of the screen, looking at the data Research Institute had just updated.
"There was little reaction from the market."
she said.
"It can even be said that there was no reaction at all."
Zhao Chen is sitting in front of the home screen.
Didn't look up.
"Of course there will be no reaction."
"The amount we sell is not intended to influence the market."
Chen Xi Click to open another picture.
That is the capital structure Model that Henglong Research Institute has just recalculated.
The red curve represents valuation.
The blue curve represents institutional funding.
The gray curve represents market sentiment.
In the past few trading days, the three curves have almost moved upward simultaneously.
Especially the mood curve.
It has clearly exceeded the valuation curve and funding curve.
Chen Xi stared at the increasingly steep line.
"The voice in the market is becoming more and more unified now."
"Brokerages continue to raise target prices."
"The core positions of public funds are also becoming more and more concentrated."
"Several large research institutions have even begun to redefine the so-called 'Core Assets'."
Zhao Chen then raised his head.
"How to define?"
Chen Xi took a look at the report.
"Certainty."
She paused.
"High profitability, high cash flow, industry leader, barriers to competition."
Zhao Chen smiled.
"Sounds reasonable."
"It's reasonable in the first place."
Chen Xi said.
"The problem is..."
She didn't continue.
Zhao Chen took it for her.
"A reasonable company does not necessarily correspond to a reasonable price."
The office was quiet for a few seconds.
Wuliangye on the screen jumps again.
Prices continue to rise.
Trading Volume is obviously enlarged.
New buying orders are constantly coming in on the market.
Even some funds that were not originally part of the Baijiu sector began to re-discuss core consumer assets.
WeChat group.
Brokerage morning meeting.
Fund manager road show.
Financial Media.
Similar logic is repeated almost everywhere.
--Core Assets will not fall easily.
--High-quality companies are worth holding for the long term.
--Together is not a risk, but a choice of funds for certainty.
--Real leaders should enjoy higher valuations.
Zhao Chen Look at these titles.
There are no comments.
Chen Xi asked:
"Do you think the market has reached its final stage?"
Zhao Chen shook his head.
"I don't know."
The answer is very direct.
Chen Xi was slightly startled.
Zhao Chen leans back on the chair.
"I never judge tops."
"There is only one price at the top."
"What we can really do is determine the extent of our risk exposure."
He pointed to the three curved lines on the screen.
"Look here."
Chen Xi approaches.
Zhao Chen enlarges the valuation curve individually.
"Corporate earnings are still growing."
"So simply saying it's expensive is meaningless."
Later, he switched to the funding structure.
"There has been no significant withdrawal of institutional funding."
"So there is no basis for saying the market is over."
Finally, there is the sentiment curve.
"This is where things really get interesting."
"Expected."
Chen Xi was silent for a moment.
"It is expected to run faster than Fundamentals."
Zhao Chen nodded.
"Yes."
"When everyone begins to believe that the future will continue to get better, what the market is really trading is no longer just this year's profits."
"It's about profits next year, the year after, or even further."
on the screen.
A brokerage research report is opened.
Earnings forecast for the next three years.
Revenue growth rate.
Net profit growth rate.
target valuation.
An item is arranged on the screen.
Chen Xi scanned it quickly.
"The problem is, as long as future performance can really be realized, this kind of valuation may not be untenable."
"That's right."
Zhao Chen did not refute.
"So we're not selling it just because it's expensive."
"It's because the market is starting to advance more and more of the future."
He paused.
"These two things are not the same thing."
11:20 am.
Research Institute Meeting Room.
The new Model is running.
The server fan keeps making a low sound.
The large screen on the wall displays the fund distribution of several core consumer assets.
Proportion of institutional holdings.
Fund concentration.
Northbound Funds changes.
Turnover.
Turnover Rate.
Valuation quantiles.
Expected earnings growth.
and sentiment indicators.
Zhang Qingxue is sitting on the other side of the conference table.
She held the risk assessment report she had just printed out in her hand.
"There is currently no signal to exit immediately."
she said.
"Financial aspects still support the market."
"Market liquidity has not deteriorated significantly."
"So if Phase Two continues to reduce its position, it needs to control the pace."
Zhao Chen nodded.
"Of course."
"Just because we want to sell, we can't ask the market to fall immediately."
Chen Qiming turned a page.
"Then what's the next step?"
Zhao Chen looked at the position list on the desktop.
My fingers tapped lightly on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu.
"Phase Two continues to decrease."
Chen Xi looks up.
"Now?"
"Not all reduction now."
Zhao Chen said.
"First make the interval."
"Valuation ranges, funding ranges, sentiment ranges."
"At least two of the three conditions are met before entering the next stage."
Zhang Qingxue asked:
"What if the market continues to rise?"
Zhao Chen looked at her.
"Then let it rise."
"Our plans cannot change just because prices rise."
Chen Xi Look down and write it down.
No one raised any objection.
Because this time, the goal of Henglong Capital was never to predict the highest point.
But keep the initiative in your own hands.
12:06 noon.
Market sentiment has further heated up.
The financial channel scrolls through the latest quotes.
Wuliangye continues to strengthen.
Shanxi Fenjiu synchronized uplink.
Several core consumer assets hit new stage highs at the same time.
Discussions on social media are more intensive.
Someone started to calculate the profits after ten years.
Some people have begun to compare the valuations of global consumer giants.
Some people have even suggested:
"If China is the highest quality consumer asset, then why can't it enjoy the valuation of the world's top consumer company?"
Chen Xi looks at these contents.
Couldn't help but laugh a little.
"Now even the valuation system is beginning to be reinterpreted."
Zhao Chen picked up the coffee.
"This is normal."
"At this stage of the market, what the market needs is no longer data."
"But stories."
Chen Xi asked:
"How long will the story last?"
Zhao Chen looked out the window.
Sunlight falls between city buildings.
"No one knows."
"So we don't guess."
He put down the coffee cup.
"We're just preparing."
One forty in the afternoon.
Henglong Research Institute.
The second version Model is completed.
A new conclusion appeared in the center of the screen:
Core consumer assets: Fundamentals is still strong, valuations continue to expand, funds are highly concentrated, and market sentiment is at a high level.
There is also a line of small words below.
Risks haven't materialized yet, but exposure is increasing.
Zhao Chen watched it for a long time.
Then he said:
"Send the Phase Two position reduction interval to Trading Desk."
The voice of Chen Mo came from New York Trading Desk.
"Received."
"Not implemented yet?"
"No rush."
Zhao Chen answered.
"Waiting for the market to give us liquidity on its own."
Chen Mo Got it.
"Understood."
The phone hangs up.
Zhao Chen looked at the screen again.
At this time, Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu are still rising.
There are no signs of collapse.
Even the entire core consumer sector is still immersed in optimism.
But Zhao Chen knows.
The real danger is never the rise.
But everyone began to believe that the rise itself was certain.
He didn't continue talking.
Just save Model.
The final file name is:
"Core Consumer Asset Valuation and Capital Structure Risk Assessment in 2021-Second Edition"
Save.
Archive.
Wait.
Because before the group really collapsed,
There will often be a stage first.
everyone believes,
This time the carnival can go on forever.