February 18th.
Thursday.
Shan City.
9:15 am.
A-share is open.
The numbers on the screen started to jump almost as soon as the market opened.
Wuliangye.
Shanxi Fenjiu.
Tongce Medical.
Pian Zi Huang.
Bidiya.
Several Core Assets appear on the home screen at the same time.
Yesterday's rally isn't over yet.
Even judging from today's market, the enthusiasm of funds has not weakened significantly.
Chen Xi stands in front of the trading terminal.
Holding in hand a freshly printed research report.
The report is only a dozen pages long.
But it is densely filled with numbers.
income.
net profit.
Profit growth rate.
Valuation multiple.
Institutional positions.
Profit forecast for the next three years.
And the growth expectations implied by the current market price.
She turned to the last page.
I glanced at the time.
Nine twenty-three.
"Model has been updated."
Zhao Chen is sitting in front of the home screen.
"Let's talk about the conclusion first."
Chen Xi Put the report on the table.
"Fundamentals has not deteriorated significantly."
"Earnings estimates are even rising."
Zhao Chen nodded.
"This is normal."
Chen Xi continued:
"What's really changing is valuations."
She projected one of the pages onto the large screen on the wall.
A curve slowly rises upward.
The other curve has become significantly steeper.
The former is a profit forecast.
The latter is the market price.
The distance between the two lines is constantly expanding.
Zhao Chen took a look.
"The market is starting to trade the future ahead."
"Yes."
Chen Xi said.
"And it's not a year."
"It's the profit in the next two to three years."
Meeting Room Be quiet.
9:41 am.
Research Institute internal Model starts the second round of calculation.
This time, there's no simple use of the P/E ratio.
The research team broke down the company's profit growth over the next three years.
Then work backwards to see how much growth the current stock price implies.
Chen Xi looked at the Model results.
"If calculated based on current market prices, profits in the next few years will need to continue to maintain relatively high growth."
Zhao Chen asked:
"How high?"
Chen Xi reports an interval.
"Significantly higher than normal cycles in the past."
Zhao Chen did not answer immediately.
He separately adjusted the profit forecast of Wuliangye.
Switch to Shanxi Fenjiu again.
The two companies are different.
The business models are different.
The stages of growth are also different.
But in the capital market, they share a common label at this time.
Core Assets.
Certainty.
Scarcity.
long term value.
These words are constantly appearing in brokerage reports and institutional communications.
Zhao Chen looked at the screen.
"What if future performance can really reach this growth rate?"
Chen Xi was startled.
"That high valuation is certainly likely to be digested."
Zhao Chen nodded.
"So we can't simply say they are expensive."
"Whether it's expensive or not depends on whether future profits can keep up."
Chen Xi was silent for a moment.
"Then why do we start reducing now?"
Zhao Chen turned around.
Look at her.
"Because the market has begun to factor in the most optimistic outcomes in advance."
"If all are realized in the future, the price may still have room."
"But as long as one of the links is lower than expected, the valuation will move first."
Chen Xi Got it.
This is what they really need to guard against now.
It's not that the company suddenly turned bad.
But the expectation suddenly wasn't that good.
Twelve past ten.
Henglong Research Institute The new Model appeared on the second screen.
Implied growth rate.
This is an indicator they just recently added.
Model does not predict stock prices.
It only answers one question.
According to the current market price, how much do investors need to believe that the company can grow in the future?
Chen Xi looked at the numbers.
His brows slowly wrinkled.
"This indicator is beginning to enter the risk range."
Zhao Chen nodded.
"That's what we really want to look at."
He picked up the pen and wrote a sentence on the paper.
Price is not the issue, expectations are.
Then crossed it out again.
Wrote it again.
It's not scary if prices rise, but it's scary if expectations are too consistent.
Chen Xi looked at the line of words.
"What if the market continues to believe in the future?"
"Then keep rising."
Zhao Chen said.
"We will not ask the market to fall immediately just because Model has entered the risk range."
"We just need to know when to reduce the risk."
Eleven o'clock in the morning.
There is news from Trading Desk.
"Wuliangye continues to strengthen."
"Shanxi Fenjiu Trading Volume is also expanding."
The trading terminal of Chen Mo transmits data simultaneously.
"Buying Pressure has no obvious attenuation."
Zhao Chen has no expression changes.
"After Phase One is completed, do not move positions frequently."
Chen Xi asked:
"Where is Phase Two?"
Zhao Chen looks at the screen.
"Start."
These two words are very light.
But it made everyone in Trading Room quiet for a moment.
Eleven twenty-six.
Henglong Capital trading system begins to split a new trading plan.
There is no large sell order placed at one time.
There is no concentration on one price.
Instead, the position reduction range of Phase Two is divided into multiple parts based on the market liquidity.
time.
price.
Trading Volume.
Market fluctuations.
Institutional funding.
All are included in the execution conditions.
Chen Mo confirms the parameters in New York Trading Desk.
"Phase Two position reduction begins."
Zhao Chen answered:
"Remember."
"Only reduce, don't steal."
"We will sell as much liquidity as the market is willing to provide."
"Don't actively create fluctuations."
"Understood."
Transaction begins.
The first stroke.
The second stroke.
The third stroke.
Transaction records keep appearing.
But the market barely reacted.
Because every transaction is dispersed in the normal transaction exchange.
The stock price on the screen is even rising.
Chen Xi looked at the transaction records.
"The market can handle it."
Zhao Chen said:
"That's why we have to reduce it."
Chen Xi didn't ask again.
She knows what Zhao Chen means.
When there is real danger, there is usually no one to answer the call.
But everyone is willing to accept it.
Because everyone believes that there will be higher prices in the future.
12:08 noon.
The market enters the midday break.
The screen in Research Institute is not turned off.
The data is still being updated.
Chen Xi Reopen valuation Model.
"Phase Two is currently being completed smoothly."
Zhao Chen nodded.
"Has the position been reduced?"
"As planned."
"Continue."
"Will it be reduced in the afternoon?"
"Look at the market."
Zhao Chen said.
"If the market continues to provide liquidity, continue."
"If liquidity starts to drop, stop."
Chen Xi Understand.
They never set themselves a date by which they had to sell out.
Because this is not a predicted top move.
It's a matter of risk management.
One o'clock in the afternoon.
A-share has reopened.
The market remains strong.
Core consumer assets continue to be sought after by funds.
Several brokerages even released relevant views again in the afternoon.
Core Assets.
long term value.
Performance certainty.
These words appear constantly in the market information flow.
Zhao Chen glanced at it.
Suddenly asked:
"Chen Xi."
"Huh?"
"What do you think is the biggest risk right now?"
Chen Xi thought for a few seconds.
"Overvalued?"
Zhao Chen shook his head.
"No."
"Everyone's judgment on the future is getting closer and closer."
Chen Xi said nothing.
Zhao Chen continued:
"If fifty out of a hundred people are bullish, the other fifty are bearish."
"Prices will fluctuate."
"If ninety people are bullish, ten people are bearish."
"Prices will accelerate."
"But if a hundred people believe that the future will be better..."
He paused.
"There aren't many surprises in the price."
Chen Xi looked down at Model.
She finally understood.
When the market is most dangerous, it is not necessarily pessimistic.
Sometimes it's just that everyone is overly optimistic.
Because the price has already made a judgment for the future in advance.
Two twenty in the afternoon.
Phase Two position reduction continues.
Part of the positions of Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu were completed one after another.
The market still has no obvious reaction.
Chen Xi took a look at the remaining positions.
No further questions were asked.
She knew she wouldn't all quit today.
Even the entire Phase Two will not be completed at once.
This is just a process.
Zhao Chen looked at the position list again.
What he cares most about is still not how much he sold today.
It's about whether the market can continue to take over after selling.
The answer is clear.
Can.
And very capable.
This actually made Zhao Chen calmer.
"Archive all today's transactions."
"Continue to observe tomorrow."
Chen Xi nodded.
"Okay."
Three o'clock in the afternoon.
Close.
Core consumer assets remain strong.
The market did not experience any abnormalities due to Henglong Capital's reduction in positions.
There was no plunge.
No panic.
Not many people even realize that some of the chips have quietly left the market.
Chen Xi stands in front of Floor-to-Ceiling Window.
Watching the lights of the city gradually light up.
"If the market continues to rise, it may become easier for us to reduce our positions later."
Zhao Chen looked at the screen.
Smiled a little.
"But it may get harder and harder."
He didn't explain.
Because both situations can happen.
A rise will bring more liquidity.
It will also bring higher expectations.
What ultimately determines the difficulty of exit is never the stock price itself.
It's about the price the market is willing to pay to take away the chips.
Zhao Chen Close the last trading screen.
Research Institute became quiet again.
On the desktop, the title of the latest report is still clear.
"Core consumer asset valuation and capital structure risk assessment in 2021--Phase Two"
And at the end of the report.
Research Model gave a very restrained conclusion:
Fundamentals remains unchanged.
Earnings expectations remain strong.
Valuations continue to expand.
The risk has not been realized.
But the margin of safety is declining.
Zhao Chen watched it for a few seconds.
In the end, he only said one sentence.
"Don't predict the top."
"Just know when to hand over your chips to the market."
And the carnival of the market,
It's far from over yet.