February 19th.
Friday.
At eight o'clock in the morning, most of the screens in Henglong Capital Research Institute's trading hall were already lit up.
Different from the previous few days, the most eye-catching thing today is not the prices of Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu.
It's the source of funds.
Public funds.
Northbound Funds.
insurance funds.
Private equity funds.
Institution-specific seats.
and the large number of individual investors in the market.
Chen Xi transferred the latest capital structure chart to the central large screen.
The entire image is a constantly changing network.
Fund nodes of different colors are connected to each other.
Over the past few months, more and more lines have started to converge on the same assets.
Wuliangye.
Shanxi Fenjiu.
And a group of consumer leaders classified as "Core Assets" by the market.
"Concentration is still increasing."
Chen Xi said.
Zhang Qingxue stood next to her.
"It's not a simple buy."
"It's more of a re-concentration of existing funds."
She pointed at the data on the screen.
"Some funds are reducing allocations to other industries."
"The funds freed up have returned to core consumption."
Chen Xi Click to open another report.
"In other words, the market is not without options now."
"It's about actively reducing the options."
Zhang Qingxue has no answer.
This sentence is enough to explain the problem.
Nine twenty-five.
The bidding ends.
Wuliangye opens high.
Shanxi Fenjiu also appears obviously Buying Pressure.
Henglong Capital Trading Desk was in no hurry to move.
Chen Mo sends back the latest handicap information.
"The bill is thicker."
"Institutional seats are also relatively active."
Zhao Chen is sitting on the other side.
"Watch it for five minutes first."
"Don't touch."
"Understood."
Five minutes passed.
Prices continue to rise.
Ten minutes.
Still no apparent Selling Pressure.
Fifteen minutes.
Trading Volume starts to zoom in.
But what's really noteworthy isn't the rise itself.
But the buyer structure.
Zhao Chen asked Chen Xi to re-split the transactions one by one.
Big order.
Mid laner.
Small order.
Then slice according to time.
Soon, a new chart appeared on the screen.
Chen Xi watched it for a few seconds.
"In this morning wave of Buying Pressure, the proportion of institutional funds has not declined."
"But the pace of incremental funding is starting to slow."
Zhao Chen asked:
"What about the price?"
"Keep going up."
"Where's the deal?"
"It's also rising."
Zhao Chen nodded.
"This is where the high market is most likely to create illusions."
"Prices are rising."
"Deal amplification."
"Everything looks fine."
He pointed at the screen.
"But what we should really look at is whether there are more and more funds."
Chen Xi Continue to scroll down.
"At present, funds are still coming in."
"It's just that the marginal increment doesn't rise as fast as the price."
Zhao Chen said no more.
This piece of data is marked separately.
10:38 am.
A new public fund position statistics entered the Research Institute system.
Chen Xi Quick view.
In the past few quarters, the allocation ratio of some large funds to consumption Core Assets has increased significantly.
Some funds have even begun to form highly similar top ten holdings.
same batch of stocks.
similar weights.
Similar logic.
Even the wording in the research reports is getting closer and closer.
"Certainty."
"Long term growth."
"Brand barriers."
"Cash flow."
"Consumption upgrade."
Chen Xi Close the report.
"The question now is not who is buying."
"But who hasn't bought it yet?"
Zhao Chen raised his head.
"That's what's really remarkable about the funding structure."
He stood up.
Go to the big screen.
"When an industry rises, funds will continue to flow in."
"But after all large funds begin to increase their allocation, where can we find enough new funds in the next stage?"
Chen Xi Silence.
The answer is not complicated.
If prices continue to rise, new buyers will have to be constantly found.
Once the new buyer scale is unable to keep up.
High valuations require stronger profit expectations to support them.
Slow down any aspect.
The market will recalculate prices.
11:07.
Phase Two Position reduction continues.
Trading Desk starts executing new time allocation.
It is not a centralized sale.
Instead, it is dispersed into different time windows.
morning.
Afternoon.
Late trading.
Set the Trading Volume limit for each window.
Once the market initiative Buying Pressure drops, the trading system automatically reduces the execution speed.
Chen Mo sent confirmation from New York.
"Phase Two execution parameters have been adjusted."
"Not pursuing Trading Volume today."
Zhao Chen replied:
"Correct."
"Our goal is to reduce exposure, not to prove our judgment is correct."
At the same time.
Another account system within Henglong Capital also began to adjust simultaneously.
Different accounts.
different times.
Different prices.
There is no unified large selling movement.
The transaction records appear to be just a series of ordinary market transactions.
No one can directly see the complete Fund Path from the handicap.
This is something Zhao Chen has paid more and more attention to since GME.
The real Large Funds exit is never by pressing a button.
It is a complete execution system.
11:45 am.
Wuliangye surges higher again.
Several people in Research Institute looked at the screen at the same time.
Chen Xi asked:
"Continue?"
Zhao Chen did not answer immediately.
He took a look at the capital flow.
I took another look at the transaction structure.
"Continue."
"But the speed is halved."
Chen Xi quickly issued instructions.
Trading Desk starts execution.
Sell orders are chopped into finer particles.
One stroke.
Two strokes.
Three strokes.
Deal.
No smashing.
No obvious impact.
And Buying Pressure on the market is still being replenished.
This means one thing.
The current market is still willing to accept it.
Zhao Chen is not surprising.
It can even be said that this is exactly what he wants to see.
The best exit environment is never when the market panics.
It's when the market is most willing to take chips.
Twelve fifteen.
Lunch.
Research Institute's screen does not turn off.
Fund structure Model starts midday update.
One of the indicators was recalculated.
Concentration of institutional holdings.
The numbers continue to rise.
Chen Xi looked at the results.
"Concentration is getting higher and higher."
Zhao Chen asked:
"What is the most dangerous thing about this structure historically?"
Chen Xi thought for a while.
"If there are no problems with profitability, concentration alone may not cause a decline."
"Yes."
Zhao Chen said.
"Concentration is not the risk itself."
"It just makes the market more and more sensitive to the same expectations."
If all funds believed in the same logic.
Then when good news comes, everyone will buy together.
But once the logic changes.
The exact opposite situation may also occur.
Let's all lower our positions together.
At that time, it is no longer whether the company is good or not that determines the price.
But who sells first.
1:03 p. m.
The market reopens.
The core consumer sector once again saw an influx of funds.
Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu continue to be strong.
There are even funds starting to be discussed in the market:
"Will the group market enter a new stage?"
"Should the valuation center of Core Assets be permanently elevated?"
"Has the valuation system of the past expired?"
No one in Research Institute discusses these topics.
They only look at numbers.
Net inflow of funds.
Turnover.
Institutional seats.
Turnover Rate.
Take the initiative to pay.
Passive buying orders.
Zhao Chen suddenly said:
"Put out the funds that you actively bought today separately."
Chen Xi completed the screening quickly.
"What's wrong?"
Zhao Chen stared at the screen.
"Compare morning and afternoon."
A few minutes later.
The two sets of curves overlap.
The price curve remains upward.
But the growth rate of active funds has begun to slow down.
Not a decline.
Prices just haven't risen as fast.
Chen Xi understands.
"Another marginal change."
"Yes."
Zhao Chen said.
"The market is still strong."
"But the speed of funds chasing prices has begun to slow down."
This is not a sell signal.
It's not even an adjustment signal.
But it deserves to be recorded.
Because the real cracks are never told to the market in advance:
I'm coming.
2:20 p. m.
Phase Two position reduction continues.
The positions of Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu were further reduced.
But still not all quit.
Chen Xi Check transaction records.
"Today's transaction is basically completed."
Zhao Chen nodded.
"Stop."
Trading Desk received the instruction.
There is no continued pursuit of late-day liquidity.
All remaining positions remain as planned.
Chen Xi asked:
"Will you continue tomorrow?"
Zhao Chen looked at the capital structure chart on the screen.
"Look at the market."
"If incremental funds accelerate again, we will continue to give."
"If liquidity drops significantly, just wait."
"We don't need to rush."
Chen Xi nodded.
Three o'clock in the afternoon.
The closing bell rings.
Research Institute did not close the trading screen immediately as usual.
The last capital structure report is being generated.
A few minutes later.
New results appear on the screen.
Institutional capital concentration: continues to rise.
The proportion of core consumer asset funds: continues to increase.
The growth rate of active funds: There is a marginal slowdown compared with the price increase.
Market sentiment: high.
Fundamentals: No obvious deterioration yet.
Zhao Chen took a look.
Not saved as a formal report.
Instead, the last item of data is copied separately.
Put it into a new folder.
The folder name is very simple.
"Observe."
He closed the computer.
There was no further discussion of valuation this time.
There is no discussion of the top either.
Because what really determines the next stage is not a certain price.
It's about whether the funds can continue to find new buyers.
The market remains as hot as during the day.
A large amount of money still believes in Core Assets.
A large number of institutions are still willing to increase their allocations.
What Henglong Capital is doing is just quietly handing over some of the chips.
There was no declaration of departure.
There are no bearish reports.
There is no attempt to tell the market which direction it should go.
Just one step at a time.
Reduce risk exposure.
Because Zhao Chen knows it very well.
The real tide of funds never disappears suddenly.
It often just starts--
Slow down.