Guesswork

Anduin saw Dumbledore turn the question over to him. After a moment's thought, he replied, "First of all, the most likely possibility is that the information is false. After all, it came from a student, and I can't be sure whether what he said was true. Even if it was, his elders might simply have been bragging to him."

"Oh?" Dumbledore took another couple of looks at him before asking, "Then why pass the information along to us?"

"Better safe than sorry. Even if the information turns out to be false, nothing will come of it. But if it's true and my friends are put in danger because of it, I'll be consumed by guilt." Anduin answered at once.

"Hmm. Cautious and clever. You handled that well, Anduin." Dumbledore nodded, then addressed the others. "Actually, I've heard similar things from another source, which is why I called this meeting to discuss them."

So that was it. Anduin had wondered why, after he'd just passed the information to Sirius, Dumbledore had taken it so seriously without even checking with him. It seemed the Headmaster knew a thing or two after all. And what was this other source he'd mentioned? Could he use Divination magic? Or did he have a spy among the Death Eaters?

The others around him looked equally enlightened.

"Then it really is possible that the Death Eaters will launch an attack around Christmas. We just don't know who they're targeting, or whether they're planning a large-scale assault or an ambush on someone who's alone." Edgar Bones stroked his thick beard as he spoke.

"An attack on someone alone seems unlikely. With the holidays approaching, most people are spending their time with family, preparing for Christmas. They won't have much time to go out." Gideon Prewett pondered for a moment.

"Even so, we should remind them to stay safe during the holidays!" Moody said sternly.

The others all nodded in agreement.

"If they're planning a large-scale attack, the most likely time would be when people are gathered together. Are any of you planning to attend a Christmas gathering?" Emmeline Vance asked gently.

"Yes. Fabian and I are planning to go to the Burrow for Christmas and celebrate with my sister Molly and my brother-in-law, Arthur." Gideon Prewett spoke in a cheerful tone.

Sirius spoke up as well. "Remus, Peter, Anduin, and I are all going to the Potters' Christmas dinner."

Dumbledore added gravely, "The Longbottoms and the McKinnons, too. They're both large families, so there'll be quite a few people gathered together."

When Moody heard them all talking about their happy family gatherings, he said in exasperation, "Ha! I'll be spending Christmas alone at the Ministry of Magic. Looks like I'm pretty safe."

Anduin hadn't expected Moody to have a sense of humor. The whole thing struck him as ridiculous, and he lowered his head and covered his mouth, laughing silently.

"What are you laughing at, kid? Living alone is a lot easier than being saddled with a family." Moody saw that Anduin dared to laugh at him and deliberately put on a fierce expression.

"I have to agree. I've lived alone for years myself, and it's really not as bad as people imagine." Anduin kept his face under control and instead told Moody he agreed.

After hearing that, Moody couldn't bring himself to snap at Anduin. He could only smack his lips awkwardly before turning to Dumbledore. "Most of the Ministry staff will be on holiday at Christmas, including the Aurors. The Department of Magical Accidents and Catastrophes might not even have anyone on duty. If no one's monitoring magical activity in London, then if the Death Eaters really do attack, we'll have a hard time mobilizing."

Dumbledore considered the troublesome point. Christmas really was a special time. If they were caught off guard while celebrating, the attack could easily take them by surprise. With the Ministry's Aurors on holiday, their numbers would be greatly reduced. If they didn't respond quickly enough, they might not be able to send reinforcements in time.

"This is such a nuisance. Are we really supposed to just defend ourselves? We'd be better off striking first and going after those bastards." Sirius had listened to the discussion and spoke impatiently.

Dumbledore could only try to reassure him. "Don't be impatient, Sirius. We'll find a way. Starting the conflict ourselves would only turn the situation in the Dark Lord's favor, leaving us at an even greater disadvantage. Besides, I'm not yet certain I could defeat him."

Anduin was startled to hear that. Even Dumbledore wasn't sure he could beat Voldemort? He wondered just how powerful Voldemort was now.

After thinking it over, Dumbledore addressed the group again. "I'll find a way to deal with this. Sirius, take Anduin back and get ready to enjoy the holidays. Fortunately, we're already on our guard. We just need to stay prepared. It's not as though something bad is certain to happen."

Sirius could only scratch his head in frustration. He led Anduin out of the basement.

The five people who remained continued discussing countermeasures in the basement.

"Dumbledore, have you formed a theory?" Edgar Bones, one of the Order of the Phoenix's Founders, knew Dumbledore well and decided to ask.

Dumbledore smiled at Bones's question and replied, "Yes. I've gotten more information from another source. I'm almost certain the Death Eaters will launch an attack at Christmas. I still have some concerns, though."

"You mean...?"

Mad-Eye Moody looked thoughtfully toward the place where Sirius had left, as if he'd guessed what Dumbledore meant.

Dumbledore glanced at Moody. "Do you know why I only called you here today? I suspect someone in the Order of the Phoenix may be informing the Death Eaters. Most of our members' names and addresses are kept secret, yet the Death Eaters seem to have no trouble finding us."

Gideon Prewett asked in confusion, "Are you saying there's a traitor in the Order of the Phoenix?"

"So that's why you sent Sirius away first?" Edgar Bones asked, as if he'd thought of something too.

"Could it be...?"

A suspicion had just begun to take shape in everyone's minds when Dumbledore interrupted them.

"I don't doubt Sirius's loyalty, but he isn't the sort of person who can keep a secret," Dumbledore said slowly.

"Do you have anyone in mind? I'd bet it's that Mundungus Fletcher. He spends all day doing nothing but smuggling goods and making money." Mad-Eye Moody seemed to think of someone, then shouted angrily.