Looting Amid the Flames

"First, we must acknowledge that we suffered a devastating defeat. Our revolutionary forces have suffered enormous losses. During the siege of Athlone and the subsequent repelling of the British Army reinforcements, we paid a heavy price. The Irish First Division and Irish Second Division, along with local forces, lost over 14,000 men. In addition, nearly 10,000 wounded soldiers had to leave the revolutionary army due to their injuries. After paying such a heavy price, we failed to achieve any of the operational objectives we set before the battle. Therefore, we must now analyze the root causes of our defeat."

Here's my personal opinion on this issue.

Firstly, because of some past achievements, many comrades in our Federation, including myself, became arrogant and complacent. Therefore, we failed to truly proceed from reality and analyze problems. Instead, we made decisions casually on a whim. Looking back now, how hasty we were in making this operational deployment!

We became blindly optimistic because of some past victories, believing that as long as we launched a feint attack, we could definitely lure the enemy into a trap, and that they would inevitably come to reinforce us unprepared and fall into our ambush—as if the enemy were under our command and must obey our orders. We failed to prepare contingency plans for unforeseen circumstances. When the time came, we reacted hastily and haphazardly; it's no wonder we failed.

Were these mistakes made by chance? No, accidental mistakes do happen, like tripping and falling while walking, which might be accidental. But making so many mistakes on matters concerning the fate of the nation cannot be accidental; it means there's a problem with our own thinking and our own conduct!

We became arrogant, and arrogance easily leads to conceit and an inability to objectively assess ourselves. We were like the frog in Aesop's fable, thinking that if we inflated our bellies, we would be bigger than an ox. Arrogance inevitably leads to looking down on others and being unable to objectively judge them. Therefore, almost none of our predictions about the Britain were correct. Arrogance also breeds laziness and a lack of critical thinking. As a result, we didn't even have contingency plans.

Therefore, this failure was not accidental, but rather due to problems in our own thinking and conduct. If we cannot correct our attitude and change our conduct, such failures will certainly not be the last. Therefore, for some time to come, and even for the rest of our lives, we must always be vigilant and constantly rectify our conduct; this is the guarantee of revolutionary victory.

Comrades, although we have suffered yet another setback, our confidence in the inevitable victory of the revolution remains unwavering. Comrades, think about our situation back then; isn't the situation now, on the whole, much better? And look at our enemies; compared to before, isn't their decline in strength obvious? The road of revolution is tortuous, but the future of revolution is bright. We must be full of confidence in the victory of the revolution..." --<Russell's speech at the debriefing meeting of the first attack on Athlone>

On the Britain side, there was naturally jubilation. Although the victory did not completely annihilate the main force of the "Ireland rebels," it was the greatest victory since the start of the "suppression campaign." Britain newspapers naturally publicized it extensively, and the Governor of Norfolk was awarded the Knight's Grand Cross. Everyone congratulated him and wished him a swift victory in suppressing the rebels.

However, the Duke of Norfolk did not show much joy. He privately told his friends that the situation in Ireland remained dire. He even cited poor health as a reason to hope that the Britain government would approve his retirement and send someone to replace him—if he didn't take advantage of the victory in suppressing the bandits to quickly find a fool eager to reap the rewards as a scapegoat, it would be difficult to find a replacement later.

However, the Britain government rejected his request without hesitation. Despite the newspapers' lavish praise of the victory, those with connections knew that the main force of the Ireland rebels remained, and this victory was not easily won. So, while celebrations and medals were being awarded, finding a scapegoat was a different story...

However, the Britain were quickly disheartened, as another incident occurred in North America.

Since the France began developing the Louisiana, the westward expansion of the United States has been almost completely blocked by the France. Because the boundary between northern Louisiana and the United States is not clear, there have been many clashes between the France and United States in the border areas over the years. Initially, it was the United States fighting against the "France citizens abroad," then the United States fighting against the Native Americans, then the "France citizens abroad" fighting against the United States, then the United States fighting against the France Americans again, and finally, it was the Native Americans supported by the France fighting against the Native Americans supported by the United States.

Although there were many minor skirmishes, the relationship between the United States and France remained largely peaceful. The United States also knew that with the Louisiana blocking their way, the success rate of westward expansion was very low. Therefore, the United States turned their attention to their northern neighbor— Canada.

In the original history, in order to seize Canada, the United States declared war on Britain in 1812, taking advantage of Britain's preoccupation with France, and attempted to take control of Canada. Of course, this strategic goal was not achieved; instead, the presidential palace was burned down. However, the United States ultimately declared themselves the victors. Strangely, the Britain also believed they had won the war. In this typical zero-sum game of war, a story emerged where both sides were victorious.

In this timeline, the United States' westward expansion was blocked by the France, but United States lacked the confidence to wage war against France. Meanwhile, Britain and France seemed poised for conflict again, and Ireland unrest was brewing in Britain. The United States immediately had an idea: why not conquer Canada now? Were they going to wait for the France to completely defeat the Britain before taking over Canada together?

So the United States found an excuse, saying that the rabbit wasn't wearing a hat—no, I mean, that the Britain and Native Americans were colluding to attack the United States —and then declared war on the Britain.

To say that the Britain colluded with Native Americans to attack United States is not entirely unfair; Britain did indeed do such things. However, they didn't target only the United States; France citizens abroad were also targets. But the United States also colluded with Native Americans to attack Canada and France citizens abroad. Then, the France citizens abroad colluded with Native Americans to attack Canada and United States.

When the two sides are evenly matched, these are minor issues, but it's a different story when the Britain are tied down by the France. So the United States used this as a pretext to declare war on Britain.