Oil Futures in the Investment Department
Inside the Investment Department's office, Director Hoshino was sipping a steaming cup of coffee, gazing comfortably out the window.
A small television in the corner of the office was playing the midday news.
"-Early this morning, the military operation codenamed " Desert Storm " officially began, with a multinational force led by the United States launching airstrikes against Iraq. Hoshino initially didn't pay much attention to it."
But the next news item made his coffee cup tremble violently, spilling scalding liquid onto the back of his hand.
"... To stabilize the international energy market, the United States President announced the immediate release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve."
On the news footage, the price curve of international crude oil futures plummeted to the floor like a kite with a broken string.
Hoshino froze, the burning pain on the back of his hand unable to rouse him from his shock.
He stared intently at the precipitous drop in the chart, and a fine layer of cold sweat instantly broke out on his back.
The scene from a few months ago vividly reappeared before my eyes.
Since Iraq's invasion of Kuwait last August, international oil prices have soared, almost like a rocket.
At that moment, seeing the enticing upward trend, he was filled with enthusiasm and immediately proposed at the board meeting that the company urgently raise cash.
They rushed into the oil futures market to make a fortune.
At that time, many people in the conference room were dazzled by the enticing upward trend chart and echoed it.
Only Takuya, while everyone else was getting carried away, gently tapped the table.
"Director Hoshino, this money can be earned, but we must not be greedy."
Hoshino was in the middle of a lively discussion when he heard this and paused slightly, "Takuya, what do you mean? Oil prices are changing every day, this is a great opportunity for us to make a fortune!"
"An opportunity is an opportunity, but it depends on whose opportunity it is." Takuya said calmly, glancing around. "This pool is too deep. We're just small boats, not aircraft carriers. We can have a sip of soup, but if we want to eat meat, we'll be swept away by the waves."
He paused, then offered his perspective. "Once the U.S. military takes any substantial action, any clear move aimed at restoring order in the Middle East, that will be a signal for us to withdraw. Otherwise, when the real blow to suppress oil prices comes down, no one will be able to escape."
Director Hoshino frowned, clearly unconvinced. In the eyes of a professional investor like him, Takuya's statement was too "political" and lacked supporting data.
"Takuya, I understand your caution, but military action will only exacerbate panic, and oil prices will only rise higher."
"That's not necessarily true." Takuya smiled, leaned forward slightly, and lowered his voice. "Director Hoshino, think about it, Uncle Sam has spent half a century and so much effort, and he's almost worn that polar bear down. Would he be happy to see high oil prices give that bear a lifeline and let decades of Cold War achievements go down the drain?"
A single sentence, like a bolt of lightning, cleaved through the fog in Director Hoshino's mind.
The nonchalance on his face vanished instantly, replaced by solemnity and contemplation.
Yes, the Soviet Union!
He only saw the war and the oil, but ignored the deeper global power struggle behind it!
Ultimately, the board of directors, considering the need for prudence, approved a relatively small amount of funding, but it was enough for Hoshino.
For the next few months, Hoshino's team was on a rollercoaster every day. Oil prices soared from over twenty US dollar to break the forty- US dollar mark, and everyone was so excited they couldn't sleep. Only Takuya would remind him every now and then, "Don't get too excited yet. The key moves from the United States haven't come yet. It'll be time to pop the champagne after the oil price drops."
Until UN Security Council Resolution 678, the final authorization for the use of force was finally issued.
Hoshino immediately called Takuya, her voice trembling slightly:
"Special Secretary Nakayama- sen! The final authorization for the use of force has been issued! This should be the signal."
"I think it's time. Let's get started, Director Hoshino." Takuya's voice on the other end of the phone was as calm as ever. "Clear out the stock, leave not a single drop."
"Now? The price has just pulled back from its peak and is still fluctuating. Shouldn't we wait a bit longer?" Hoshino was still somewhat greedy for the profit margin from the high-level fluctuations.
"We can't wait any longer. If we wait any longer, it won't be profit, it'll be a noose."
"That's true, there won't be much room for further upward movement after the current fluctuations."
Hoshino gritted his teeth and gave the order.
Because the amount of capital was not large, the sale proceeded extremely smoothly, and the entire amount was cashed out and the company left the market almost before the market could react.
In the end, those who bought at around US dollar 20 and sold at nearly US dollar 40 made a net profit of over US dollar 50 million!
At the time, Hoshino only felt that he was lucky, coupled with Takuya's accurate analysis.
But now, watching the oil price curve plummet vertically to the floor on the TV news, the burning pain on the back of his hand paled in comparison to the chill surging in his heart.
He now realized that what he had avoided thanks to Takuya's warning was more than just an investment mistake.
It was an abyss that could severely damage the entire Sega company!
He instinctively grabbed the phone on the table and dialed Nakayama Takuya.
The call connected, rang only once before being answered, and Nakayama Takuya's voice came through the receiver.
"Director Hoshino?"
"Zhong--- Nakayama Executive Director! It's me, Hoshino!" Hoshino was still catching his breath, "Did you see the news? Oil prices---oil prices..."
He was somewhat incoherent; the vertically downward candlestick chart, like a guillotine, kept replaying in his mind.
"Gas prices? Oh, I saw that on the midday news." Takuya seemed unconcerned about it. "Looks like we left at a good time."
"Not bad? Executive Director, this is more than just 'not bad'!" Hoshino stood up excitedly, pacing back and forth in his office, trying to calm the wildly beating heart that had just escaped disaster. "If we hadn't cashed out back then, by today, we would already be—"
He dared not think about the consequences.
"Director Hoshino, we simply weren't greedy." Takuya chuckled, then changed the subject, "Speaking of which, that US dollar 50 million in profit is still sitting in the account, right? What are your plans?"
"I—" Hoshino Hajime. He was filled with lingering fear and had never thought about this question before.
After selling his shares, he only reinvested the original principal into Coca-Cola stock. He hadn't touched the profits yet, and he was still considering what to do with them. This consideration lasted for more than a month, and the money sat in his account for over a month.
"Money just sits there doing nothing, it loses value." Takuya's voice carried a hint of amusement. "Look, the war has already started, there must be a lot of weapons and equipment being used up, right? The United States arms dealers are probably watching their weapons go into combat right now while popping champagne to celebrate their orders."
Hoshino's breath hitched, and his mind seemed to have been struck hard. He instantly caught up with Takuya's train of thought.
Yes! War!
War consumes not only oil, but also massive amounts of weaponry!
"You mean..."
"The U.S. military has brought out all its trump cards this time— Patriot, Golden Axe, M1A1s. This isn't war; it's a weapons exhibition held right under the noses of the whole world," Takuya said leisurely. "Once the war is over, won't orders from all those countries who saw how powerful American weapons are flooding in? It's not unreasonable for us to buy some stock in military companies now and get a piece of the pie, is it?"
Hoshino felt a sudden sense of clarity before her, and the fear and lingering apprehension that had been gripping her vanished, replaced by an intense excitement.
He could almost see the candlestick charts of those military stocks soaring into the sky like Patriot missiles launched into space!
"I understand! I'll arrange it right away!" Hoshino's voice became excited.
"Don't rush." Takuya tapped the table, his voice coming through the receiver with a reassuring calmness. "Remember, fireworks, no matter how beautiful, are only for a fleeting moment. This is quick money; you make a quick buck and leave. After the trade fair, the funds should honestly return to the blue-chip stocks we already held, steadily collecting dividends—that's the long-term solution."
"Yes! Yes! I got it!" Hoshino nodded emphatically, even bowing slightly into the phone without realizing it, his attitude as respectful as a student just starting school.
After hanging up the phone, Hoshino let out a long sigh of relief, walked out of his office, and quickly assigned tasks to the staff in his department.