Aditya's prediction

After dinner, Aditya brought Madan and Dipti into the office.

Once the door was pulled shut, the three sat around the table.

Aditya picked up his teacup and took a sip of water to wet his throat before saying:

"It's just the three of us tonight. I'll give you my take first, so you know where things stand."

Madan grunted in acknowledgment, leaned back in his chair, and took the cigarette from behind his ear, turning it in his hand.

Dipti said nothing. She opened her notebook, set it on the table, and looked at Aditya.

Aditya said, "We know better than anyone how the old Jaya Factory died. The machines were still there, the workers hadn't run off, but electricity, yarn, wages, rent-every single thing needed money. The moment the cash ran dry, it went bankrupt. Now there are more and more factories like Jaya in Kanpur. What do you think is causing it?"

Madan thought for a moment. "Cotton yarn prices have gone up?"

"That's only one reason. Cloth prices are rising too, so why are they still losing money?"

"Cloth prices are rising slowly, yarn prices are rising fast, and the cash can't keep up," Dipti said, raising her head.

"Suppliers are raising prices and demanding cash, while buyers want credit-to take the cloth first and pay later," Dipti continued.

"Exactly. That's it. The key to the problem is the exchange rate."

Aditya turned to Madan after saying this and asked, "Uncle, you've been out and about. Have you heard anyone cursing the banks?"

"Plenty. There's an importer in Lucknow who goes to the bank every day. He wanted to exchange rupees for dollars and waited two weeks. Today the bank put him off until tomorrow, tomorrow they put him off until the day after. Eventually he wised up and bribed a deputy branch manager, but another half month passed and it still hadn't been approved. I asked why he didn't go to the black market. He said the black market was worse than robbery. If this keeps up, even the money he owes for his goods will get swallowed up," Madan replied.

Aditya said, "Exactly. The rupee is depreciating, and dollars are hard to get. It'll only get harder. We sell cloth for rupees now, and it looks like we're making money, but once we buy raw materials and pay the electricity bill, there's barely anything left."

"So the other factories are all just gritting their teeth and holding on. They're betting the government will intervene, betting the rupee's exchange rate will stabilize," Dipti said.

Aditya said, "Exactly, but I predict the rupee will keep falling. It may fall even further next year. We can't count on New Delhi. That bunch of useless bastards only know how to shout 'winning, winning, winning.'"

"As long as the rupee keeps depreciating, raw material prices will keep rising. Those suppliers have it tough too. They'll cut imports and demand cash payments. I think another whole batch of factories in Kanpur will die."

"Then what do we do?" Madan asked.

"We at Diya need to plan ahead too. I'm going to Mumbai. While the banks are still willing to talk, I'll take Diya's accounts there, get a loan first, then convert it into dollars. With dollars in hand, we won't end up like those small factories, forced to go begging to the banks."

Hearing this, Dipti asked nervously, "You want to gamble on the exchange rate?"

Aditya smiled. "It's not gambling. It's mending the roof before the rain. Even if the rupee doesn't crash, we'll still need to buy equipment with the loan. The factory needs to expand, so we'll have to go to the banks sooner or later. Better now than later. Once policy really tightens, we won't even be able to find the door if we go knocking."

Madan suddenly cursed. "So after all that, you're planning to dust off your backside and run off alone again. I don't care. This time I'm coming with you, no matter what."

"I can handle Mumbai on my own," Aditya said with a wry smile. "Uncle, don't make a fuss. You and Dipti both need to stay. Diya can't do without you."

That only made Madan angrier. "No! Since this factory started operating, how many days have you actually spent here, all told? When you leave, aren't Dipti and I the ones who suffer? Even a hands-off boss can't go this far!"

"Uncle Madan, I'm not tired. Aditya is taking care of important business. Running around outside all the time is hard work too. Don't be angry with him," Dipti volunteered in Aditya's defense.

"Dipti, look how exhausted you are, and you're still pleading this fellow's case. You, you, you..."

Madan stared, dumbfounded, raising his right hand to point at Dipti, his expression growing increasingly suspicious.

Madan turned to look at his nephew, and Aditya smiled at him. Madan's gaze went back and forth between his nephew and Dipti twice.

"Oh!... Fine, then. Turns out I'm the outsider here." Madan sighed, looking as though he had nothing left to live for.

Dipti's face quickly flushed red. She lowered her head and said nothing.

Aditya smiled. "Get the accounts sorted out first. Calculate last month's production, costs, wages, and payments received properly. Optimize whatever needs optimizing. These are for the bank to look at, after all."

Dipti nodded. She stole a glance at Madan and found him still staring at her, so she quickly lowered her head again.

Looking at Dipti behaving like an ostrich, Madan burst out laughing.

"Ahem!"

Aditya gave a light cough to interrupt Madan and said, "Start recruiting tomorrow. Train the new employees first once they arrive. Train Paro and Usha for management too. Once the factory grows, they'll need to be able to hold their own."

"Mm," Dipti murmured, slumped over the table.

Aditya concluded, "I'll spend one more day at the factory tomorrow, then go to Mumbai the day after. That's all for tonight."

"Mm," Madan and Dipti replied.

With the meeting over, Aditya drove the two of them back to their residence in the green jeep.

Naturally, the three of them didn't live in the dormitory. Before Diya had even begun operations, Aditya had rented a villa in urban Kanpur. The two-story villa also had a small courtyard, with enough room for all three of them.

As for Raju and the others from Varanasi, they naturally stayed in the dormitory with the Kanpur workers.

The jeep's windows were open, and the night breeze poured in, wonderfully cool.

Aditya had already begun working out his next arrangements. He remembered a business card belonging to a Chinese man named Wang Changgui.

The jeep rounded the last bend in urban Kanpur, its headlights sweeping across the roadside mango trees, then stopped in front of a small two-story house.

Aditya switched off the engine. Madan was the first to jump out and stretch, his bones cracking. He was probably calcium-deficient.

"I'm going to bed first. Tomorrow I still have to go to Allahabad to give Boss Suen an answer. Day after day, this is really going to work these old bones of mine to death." Madan went inside without looking back.

Dipti got out, walked over to Aditya, and said quietly, "I'll sort out Diya's accounts for last month and give them to you first thing tomorrow morning."

Aditya looped the car key around his finger and spun it once, smiling. "No rush. I'm leaving the day after tomorrow. Get some proper rest tonight."

Dipti murmured an acknowledgment, turned, and went inside too.

The moon had risen, bright and clear, bathing the little courtyard in silver.

Standing in the courtyard, Aditya took out Wang Changgui's business card and examined it by moonlight.

No. 9, ** Building, ** Street, Kowloon, Hong Kong. It was printed in Chinese and English, with traditional Chinese characters, a telephone number, and a fax number.

Wang Changgui, a Hong Kong man in international trade.

Aditya planned to contact this Chinese man tomorrow first.

Aditya put the business card away and went into his own room too.