The Misguidance of Intuition
Shuo City.
The City Lord's Mansion, a side hall.
You Su stopped wearing sunglasses after appearing outside Shuo City, because such a strange object would attract too much unnecessary attention. In any case, with his nearsighted eyesight and even more unrestrained Divine Sense, he could act indistinguishably from someone who could see with their own eyes.
He observed his room and realized that the architecture of the Northern Ao Continent could never be described as magnificent.
The hall was spacious and bright, with carved dragon and phoenix beams hanging high. The tables and chairs were made of carved pear wood, and there was even a screen separating the bedroom from the living room, something that would be almost impossible in the Northern Ao Continent.
This exquisite and refined layout reminded You Su of the mansions in the Central Yuan Continent, which showed that the city lord of Shuo City must be very fond of the culture of the Central Yuan Continent. And the fact that he could stay in such an expensive guest room was probably because of the Flower Daoist Hua.
Thinking about the many twists and turns of getting into the city, You Su became even more curious about that Flower Daoist.
From that inexplicable game onwards, his behavior was completely baffling to You Su. And clearly, like those Evil God hidden in the Unknown Land, the unknown always makes people uneasy.
You Su couldn't figure out his purpose, nor did she know why she had gotten involved.
But what he was certain of was that the Flower Daoist must have realized he possessed cultivation.
Because You Su initially genuinely believed that this Flower Daoist was just an ordinary fake Daoist, but the Flower Daoist's ability to appear and disappear without a trace showed that his strength was unfathomable. You Su's misconception that the other party was an ordinary person was entirely due to the vast difference in strength, so his little disguise could not possibly have fooled the Flower Daoist.
Therefore, this exposes a most fatal problem --
He was a young man with considerable cultivation, who was fully qualified to be welcomed into the city openly by the soldiers through the main gate. Yet, he chose to be sold to the Chui Xue Lou as a male prostitute by a local ruffian just to enter the city. He must have a shameful identity and an ulterior motive.
Then why would he help me?
You Su was horrified by the thought. He downed the hot tea on the table in one gulp, then stuffed Bai Ze, who was running around the room, back into his collar, pressed Bai Ze's head down, and said in a serious, low voice:
"We can't stay here any longer. Behave yourselves, we have to leave immediately!"
The Flower Daoist is currently discussing matters with the city lord in the main hall; if he doesn't leave now, he'll be even less likely to leave.
Bai Ze was still a little confused, but after so many days of companionship, it had long since come to trust You Su completely.
When You Su entered, he had already scanned the area with his Divine Sense. There were no servants guarding the guest room, which was reserved for distinguished guests. As long as he explained to the maids that he was a disciple of the Flower Daoist and needed to go out on errands, he would be able to slip away!
You Su then extended his Divine Sense to confirm that no one was in the courtyard, and with a furrowed brow, he pushed open the door.
But when the door opened, what greeted the eye was not the gray-white snow in the yard, but a flamboyant male peacock.
"Oh, how did you know your teacher was back!"
The Flower Daoist always wore a gentle smile, giving the impression of being completely harmless, without a trace of the hypocrisy of a smiling tiger.
You Su's heart skipped a beat, she pursed her lips and stepped aside:
"I am not your disciple."
"Many people want to become my disciple."
The Flower Daoist walked into the house with his hands behind his back. The moment he entered, the door closed by itself, shutting out the biting cold wind from outside.
"I'm not a sociable person."
You Su sat back down on the tea table. Now that he knew he couldn't escape, he simply refilled his empty teacup. After running around for three days, he had been craving this hot tea.
"So you're an interesting person."
The Flower Daoist leisurely sat down on the other side of the tea table. "I did bring you into the city, so it's not too much to ask that you pour me a cup of tea, is it?"
You Su raised his thick eyebrows, but still filled the other person's cup.
"Why are you helping me?" You Su asked directly.
"Because you guessed right." The Flower Daoist, inhaling the aroma of the tea, spoke with an air of entitlement. "I said I could grant you one wish within my power, and your wish was to enter the city, wasn't it?"
You Su pursed his lips. His guess was absolutely right; the Flower Daoist had indeed seen through his secret.
But the Flower Daoist chose not to expose him, nor did he ask questions; instead, he chose to ignore it.
"If that's the case, why did you leave without saying goodbye?"
You Su was referring, of course, to making him take the blame and become the murderer.
"That fat guy doesn't know me, so I have to find someone who does," the Flower Daoist waved his hand, enjoying his fragrant tea with relish.
You Su suddenly realized why the commander had appeared so timely; he had been lured there by the Flower Daoist without his knowledge.
Just as You Su was wondering who the person in front of him was, the Flower Daoist suddenly put down his teacup:
Why did you want to change?
"Change to what? The hidden compartment?" You Su didn't expect the other party to still be hung up on that stupid game.
"Yes! You were willing to pretend to be tricked by human traffickers, willing to bear the guilt of murder, all because of your determination to enter the city. This shows that you must be a person of unwavering resolve and perseverance! Such people, from ancient times to the present, have always been pillars of the immortal path." The Flower Daoist's gaze was intense, but his tone was full of doubt. "But why would such a person so decisively choose to take the other path when faced with two options? Clearly, whether you changed it or not, the probability of you guessing correctly was fifty-fifty. In that case, what reason would someone like you have not to choose to believe in your original intention?"
"I told you, you can't fool me," You Su Sufeng replied casually.
The doubt that had been on the Flower Daoist's face gradually faded, replaced by an even wider smile, as if his doubts had been feigned.
When did I lie to you?
"You're right. If it were truly a 50/50 chance, someone like me would definitely choose to stick to my initial decision without hesitation. But to choose to stick to one's original intention when one knows that another path has a greater chance of reaching the end is not the mark of a pillar of society, but a fool."
"You mean, the chances of guessing correctly for the remaining two boxes aren't fifty-fifty?" The Flower Daoist priest leaned forward, seemingly eager for You Su's answer. "Even if you haven't studied the 'Ten Books of Mathematical Classics,' even an old woman selling vegetables on the roadside can understand this principle—when choosing between two options, the chances of being right or wrong are fifty-fifty."
You Su did not directly answer the Flower Daoist's question, "You brought these refugees to play this game not out of kindness, but to teach them arithmetic?"
"You should answer my question first." The Flower Daoist's smile remained unchanged, but his eyes became even more intense.
You Su frowned slightly and quietly leaned back a little. He was only going to be sold to Chui Xue Lou, but not actually sold there. He was someone even a man as beautiful as Brother Kongyue couldn't bend.
"My reason for switching is simple: switching doubles my chances of guessing correctly, so I have no reason not to choose it."
You Su casually stated the extremely counterintuitive reason.
"Oh? Why?" The Flower Daoist priest leaned forward even further.
"There are three hidden compartments, and the silver could be in any of them. If it's in the first one I choose, then no matter which one you open, I'll be wrong if I switch." But the opposite is not as simple as the silver not being in the first one; it could be in the second or the third. Therefore, there are three possible scenarios. After you open a hidden compartment, my chance of guessing correctly is two-thirds, while my chance of not switching is only one-third.
"The old lady selling vegetables on the street won't understand your explanation," the Flower Daoist, not yet ready to give up.
These words spurred You Su's perseverance. After all, even the old ladies selling vegetables on the street might be a bit smarter than his junior sister. The painful memories of those three years teaching his junior sister arithmetic in the Mandarin Sword Sect were still fresh in his mind.
"If it were replaced with a hundred hidden compartments, even the most resolute fool would choose to switch."
"Continue."
"Choose any number from one to one hundred."
After a moment's thought, the Flower Daoist replied, "Eighty-eight."
"I have a hundred hidden compartments here, but only one of them contains silver. You chose the eighty-eighth compartment, and I opened ninety-eight empty compartments for you, leaving only the first one unopened. Now, to get this silver coin, do you choose to exchange it or not?"
"Of course it should be changed!" the Flower Daoist blurted out.
"Why?" It was You Su's turn to ask in return. "The remaining two hidden compartments are simply a matter of one being empty and the other not. Whether you switch or not, the chances are fifty-fifty. Why not trust your initial choice?"
"Because... that's just the surface."
The Flower Daoist finally leaned back in his carved chair, his eyes practically overflowing with admiration. "The reason I was able to keep the eighty-eighth hidden compartment wasn't because the silver just happened to be in it, but because I chose it from the start. The first hidden compartment was spared because you knew where the silver was. So, essentially, as long as my initial choice of the eighty-eighth was wrong, I could guess whichever was left. Non-Self could guess the eighty-eighth from the beginning, but that's one in a hundred—a one percent chance."
"So it seems like you only have two choices left, but actually the other choice is the one that has eliminated ninety-eight wrong choices for you, while the one you initially chose was just one you randomly picked from a hundred. And so on, the same logic applies to the three hidden compartments."
As soon as You Su finished speaking, he was surprised to find that the Flower Daoist picked up the teapot and personally poured him a full cup of tea.
You Su was utterly astonished. This Flower Daoist must be a Venerable One at the Void Glimpse Realm, yet he would condescend to personally pour tea for a boy of unknown origin?
If this Flower Daoist hadn't known the underlying principles and was simply thanking me, that would have been one thing. But he was clearly testing me...
"Whom did you study under before?" the Flower Daoist asked with concern.
You Su pursed her lips and chose to remain silent.
The Flower Daoist, seeing that You Su was unwilling to speak, immediately raised his eyebrows and said:
"Speak boldly, they're nothing more than a few old scholars from the Southern Yang Continent or Central Yuan Continent. I know them all, but when it comes to the Arithmancy, Southern Yang Continent, with its Tian Qi Divine Mountain, always loves to calculate the heavens and the earth, so it's still a cut above the other four continents. I see that you're so proficient in Arithmancy at such a young age. Central Yuan Continent couldn't have taught you. Could you be the closed-door disciple of that Old Daoist Ziwei?"
Upon hearing this, You Su raised an eyebrow. He recognized the Old Daoist Ziwei mentioned by the Flower Daoist; he was none other than the Venerable Ziwei, the Grand Elder of the Qiming Sect in the Southern Yang Continent. He was proficient in Ziwei Doushu, Bagua Liuyao, Qimen Dunjia, and many other arts, and was the pinnacle of divination in his time.
Both being living fossils of grandmasters, there are two reasons why the Grand Elder, the Heavenly Arts First Seat, is not as famous as the Grand Elder. First, the popularization of the Way of Technique Method. Second, the Venerable Ziwei did not have any widely circulated works. His works are all obscure and difficult to understand, with a very high reading threshold. On the other hand, most of the works of the Chief of Heavenly Arts First Seat can be understood even by a cultivator at the Channel Opening Realm.
However, the reputation of Venerable Ziwei was only slightly higher than that of the Grand Elder. In terms of his status in the immortal path, he was definitely on the same level as the Grand Elder.
Yet, this person of such high status was addressed as "Old Daoist" by the Flower Daoist, showing absolutely no respect.
"Not him?" The Flower Daoist was greatly puzzled by You Su's behavior and pushed the tea he had poured for You Su towards him. "Could it be the Old Daoist Gu Shi?"
You Su looked at the teacup and pursed her lips. "I don't know them, and I haven't studied divination."
To everyone's surprise, the Flower Daoist sat up abruptly upon hearing this, staring at You Su with disbelief. His burning gaze went beyond a man's lust for a woman; it was as if he had found the answer to something he had sought all his life.
"As expected... as expected! I noticed your uniqueness from the very first moment I saw you!"
The Flower Daoist paced back and forth, saying, "It's not because of your cultivation level, but because when I was explaining the rules, although they were listening, everyone was staring at that silver coin! Only you didn't even look at the silver coin! So only you saw through the appearance! What the reward is is not important at all; finding the right rules is the most important! Why can't those old scholars understand? Intuition is the biggest obstacle in the art of divination!"
By the end, the Flower Daoist seemed to be talking to himself, his excitement no less than if he had solved an unsolvable problem.
You Su subtly shrugged, secretly thinking that it wasn't that he didn't want to listen while looking at the silver, but rather that he couldn't see it clearly. His listening intently wasn't out of seriousness, but rather a habit formed from his blindness...
"So you made those refugees play this game, what was your purpose... to prove?"
"That's right! Those old pedants have been arrogant for too long! They refuse to acknowledge the many intuition-based fallacies in their books! I'm going to prove that even ordinary people who haven't studied Arithmancy can overcome the misleading nature of intuition and arrive at the correct answer! They can stand at that academic high place not because they are truly more intelligent, but simply because they have learned more than these fools in their eyes!"
With a flourish of his colorful sleeves, the Flower Daoist's elegant demeanor resembled that of a peacock spreading its wings.
"But you know I'm faking it; I can't prove your theory." You Su sipped his tea, pouring cold water on the Flower Daoist.
No, you can.
The Flower Daoist bowed slightly, his eyes bright and piercing.
"Aren't you right, Da Bang?"
1. Chapter 107 mentions that the female teacher suffers a lot from math.
2. Da Rou Bang was renamed Da Bang after being rectified, haha, it's actually not so bad.
3. This is a classic problem in probability theory.