Chapter Summaries

After a novel influenza outbreak appeared in New Delhi, Zhao Chen realized that the crisis timeline he remembered had shifted and ordered Henglong Capital to reassess its investments for extreme risks. He left the firm waiting for the market shock to unfold while relying on updated analysis rather than his former certainty about the future.

• Zhao Chen read alerts about a novel influenza outbreak in New Delhi and recognized that the pandemic’s point of origin differed from his memories.
• Chen Xi began reviewing Henglong Capital’s holdings, while Zhao Chen assessed potential supply-chain effects on Bidiya, Bubble Mary, and Green Energy Technology.
• Zhao Chen directed Henglong to review supply-chain exposures, raise cash reserves from 1.5 billion to 2 billion, and suspend new secondary-market purchases.
• Zhao Chen asked Chen Xi to delay recommendations on Bidiya and prepare new valuation models based on extreme tail risks.
• Zhao Chen told Chen Xi to have Aunt Zhang study legal implications for cross-border mergers and acquisitions, listing procedures, and US disclosure obligations if the influenza spread globally.

Zhao Chen convened Henglong Capital’s core team to assess how the New Delhi Flu could disrupt its holdings and ordered financial, legal, supply-chain, and communications preparations. He assigned ongoing monitoring and contingency work, then marked the possible impact beside Bidiya as “The Butterfly Has Stirred.”

• Zhao Chen called an emergency meeting after the New Delhi Flu prompted heightened alerts in India and an emergency committee convening by the World Health Organization.
• Chen Xi mapped indirect supply-chain risks for Bidiya, Bubble Mary, and Green Energy Technology, while Chen Qiming presented liquidity stress tests for mild, moderate, and extreme disruptions.
• Zhao Chen ordered Henglong Capital to raise its cash reserves to 2 billion and prepare funding plans for all three scenarios.
• Su Wantang offered the Philanthropic Foundation’s rural school network as a potential supply distribution resource, and Zhang Qingxue outlined legal reviews and disclosure requirements.
• Zhao Chen assigned Chen Xi, Chen Qiming, Zhang Qingxue, and Liu Mingyu contingency tasks, then asked Shen Zhiyi to forward relevant Bloomberg alerts to Chen Xi and Zhang Qingxue.
• Zhao Chen wrote “The Butterfly Has Stirred” beside Bidiya on the supply-chain diagram.

Zhao Chen worried that the New Delhi flu outbreak’s shifted location meant his memories of the future could no longer be trusted. After a dream about Elon Musk and Starship, he recognized that his success depended on his judgment and preparations, not just foresight, and sent Musk a message of confidence.

• Chen Xi sent the supply chain transmission diagram to the core team and left without interrupting Zhao Chen.
• Zhao Chen reviewed reports about the New Delhi flu outbreak and feared that changes to events could undermine his future predictions.
• Zhao Chen dreamed that Elon Musk told him Starship’s safety relied on repeated revisions and safeguards, not on Zhao Chen’s data alone.
• Zhao Chen woke to find that Su Wantang had replaced his tea and left a blanket, then wrote down why judgment mattered more than foresight.
• Zhao Chen looked out at the morning mist and sent Elon Musk the message, “Your Starship will definitely succeed.”

Shen Jue confronted Zhao Chen about his fear that recent events had disrupted his ability to predict the future, then reminded him that Henglong’s success depended on its people and systems. Reassured, Zhao Chen asked Chen Xi to prepare a careful valuation model incorporating the new variables.

• Shen Jue met Zhao Chen at a riverside teahouse and pointed out that he had become unusually rigorous since the New Delhi flu news, but had lost his former confidence.
• Zhao Chen told Shen Jue that he had once known how events would unfold, but new developments such as Bidiya's Blade Battery, Tesla's Shanghai factory, and Nvidia's data centers had made him question his assumptions.
• Shen Jue reminded Zhao Chen that Henglong’s past successes had relied on the work of Chen Qiming, Chen Xi, Zhang Qingxue, Su Wantang, and the systems they built together.
• Shen Jue encouraged Zhao Chen to keep steering Henglong with the support of his team, then left the teahouse.
• Zhao Chen drank the cold tea and messaged Chen Xi to send him a solid valuation model incorporating the new variables the following day.

Zhao Chen reviewed the decisions behind Henglong’s investments and realized that his success had depended not only on foreknowledge but also on his own analysis and his team’s work. He asked Chen Xi to reassess the portfolio using new variables, then recognized that his colleagues were the most valuable thing he had.

• Zhao Chen mapped the reasoning behind his major investment decisions and concluded that his own analysis had guided him beyond what his foreknowledge revealed.
• Zhao Chen asked Elon Musk whether recalculating in response to changing conditions counted as failure, and Elon Musk replied that recalculating was iteration.
• Zhao Chen asked Chen Xi to revalidate Henglong’s positions using new data and without relying on his earlier predictions.
• Chen Xi reminded Zhao Chen that Henglong’s investment judgments increasingly came from the team and that they would recalculate alongside him.
• Zhao Chen looked at a photograph of Henglong’s core team and wrote that his colleagues, not his map, were his most valuable asset.

Shen Zhiyi comforts Zhao Chen as he struggles with the loss of reliable foreknowledge and worries about guiding Henglong through uncertainty. Her support reminds him that his own judgment and the systems he built can carry him forward, and he ends the night thinking of Su Wantang’s promise to watch his back.

• Shen Zhiyi stayed late at Henglong and brought Zhao Chen hot tea as he reviewed timelines of his past decisions.
• Zhao Chen told Shen Zhiyi that an unexpected change had made him doubt his ability to lead Henglong without foreknowledge.
• Shen Zhiyi reminded Zhao Chen that his judgment, preparation, and courage were his own, independent of what he had foreseen.
• Shen Zhiyi explained that Henglong’s contracts already included a process for renegotiating terms after unforeseen changes and offered to redraw the map with him.
• Shen Zhiyi urged Zhao Chen to count the rocks he had already crossed, then left him to reflect on Su Wantang’s promise to watch his back.

Su Wantang visited Zhao Chen as he struggled with investment decisions amid the New Delhi Flu and the disruption of his expected timeline. She reassured him that his judgment and experience remained, and left him with fresh tea as he faced an uncertain path.

• Su Wantang finished arranging epidemic-prevention supply distribution through the Foundation and brought fresh Pu'er to Zhao Chen's office.
• She noticed Zhao Chen's cautious investment emails and told him she understood that he feared losing confidence in his judgment as events departed from his expected timeline.
• Su Wantang described how she had found her own purpose leading the Foundation and reassured Zhao Chen that her work still supported him and Henglong.
• She reminded Zhao Chen that his investment success came from his ability to spot undervalued companies and opportunities, not from knowing the future in advance.
• Zhao Chen smiled at Su Wantang's reassurance, and she left the office after telling him to trust the path he had already traveled.

As the New Delhi Flu deepened the global liquidity crisis and Tesla shares plunged, Zhao Chen and Chen Xi revised their stress tests and abandoned precise price predictions in favor of models and cautious, staged buying. Zhao Chen left the story committed to revalidating his judgment with data rather than relying on memories.

• Global infections, shipping disruptions, and market sell-offs intensified, driving Tesla's share price below its projected buying ranges.
• Chen Xi presented Zhao Chen with an updated stress-test report that accounted for the flu outbreak's supply-chain and liquidity shocks.
• Zhao Chen widened the estimated bottom range and ordered another Monte Carlo simulation covering historical crisis extremes.
• Zhao Chen added a recommendation to buy in tranches with strict limits and to wait whenever the model advised waiting.
• Chen Xi told Zhao Chen that his judgment had not changed, but that he was now validating it through models instead of memories.
• Zhao Chen reflected on messages and keepsakes from Elon Musk, Shen Zhiyi, and Su Wantang, then wrote that he now used a compass rather than an outdated map.

Zhao Chen reassured Elon Musk during Tesla’s supply crisis, urging him to treat each disruption as a failure point to identify and fix. After the call, Zhao Chen realized he could trust his own judgment even without relying on his memories of the future.

• Elon Musk called Zhao Chen at three in the morning and described Tesla’s dwindling parts, delayed Panasonic batteries, and bleak delivery forecasts.
• Zhao Chen told Musk that the crisis affected every industry and urged him to tackle each supply-chain failure point as he would an engine problem.
• Musk recalled that Era Vanguard had bought Tesla shares at 178 and thanked Zhao Chen for seeing the company’s potential.
• Zhao Chen explained that he had lost confidence in his map of the future but had learned he could draw it again through his own judgment.
• Musk said he had revised the Shanghai factory launch schedule using current data and recognized Tesla’s production lines as its moat.
• After the call, Zhao Chen felt more grounded because he had trusted his own judgment rather than his memories of the future.

Henglong Capital cautiously bought shares during the liquidity crisis, while Chen Xi’s independent valuation model and the Investment Decision Committee’s analysis matched Zhao Chen’s earlier assessment. Zhao Chen used that convergence to establish a formal system of independent verification, committee review, and ongoing monitoring, leaving Henglong’s investment decisions less dependent on any one person.

• Henglong Capital placed staggered limit orders during market flash crashes, keeping each purchase within one-fifth of available funds.
• Chen Xi showed Zhao Chen that her model, his earlier assessment, and the committee’s conclusions independently converged on similar valuation ranges and buying plans.
• Zhao Chen presented the three analyses to the Investment Decision Committee and said Henglong’s investment decisions should no longer depend on his judgment alone.
• Zhao Chen established independent model verification, committee review for major or volatile investments, and regular post-investment reassessment.
• Zhang Qingxue, Chen Qiming, Song Zhongping, and Shen Jue backed the system’s compliance, financial, operational, and decision-making value.

After Henglong’s Investment Decision Committee approved decisions based on its institutional framework, Zhao Chen walked beside the river and realized that his success came not only from memories of the future, but from his own judgment and ability to adapt. He returned to recognize that the trust and support of his colleagues and Shen Zhiyi were strengths he had built himself.

• Zhao Chen recalled Shen Jue telling him that Henglong could continue without his constant intervention, and reconsidered his own words that Henglong belonged to its system.
• Zhao Chen reflected on how the future map had failed when the New Delhi Flu differed from his memories, and realized his ability to find new solutions mattered more than foreknowledge.
• Zhao Chen messaged Shen Zhiyi that he held the oars while she held the sails, and continued walking without waiting for her reply.
• Zhao Chen remembered Su Wantang, Shen Jue, and Shen Zhiyi each reassuring him that he did not need to carry every answer alone.
• Shen Zhiyi replied that he had raised the sails himself, and Zhao Chen recognized that his colleagues’ support and trust had grown from his own decisions.

Zhao Chen and Henglong’s leaders formalized the investment framework tested during the flu outbreak into a standing system, adding independent oversight and social-risk data. The meeting ended with rules for future revisions, allowing Henglong’s system to evolve without waiting for a crisis.

• Zhao Chen set aside his plan to announce the Henglong Research Institute and proposed turning Henglong’s emergency decision-making framework into a standing system.
• Chen Xi proposed adding three principles to the investment charter: independent model cross-validation, automatic committee review triggers, and quarterly revalidation of every position.
• Song Zhongping proposed separating the theoretical framework from a simplified operations manual, while Zhang Qingxue proposed establishing the principles as the Board-approved institutional constitution.
• Shen Jue proposed quarterly independent director reviews sent directly to the Board, and Chen Qiming presented data showing that staged purchases reduced risk without significantly increasing costs.
• Su Wantang proposed adding social-risk variables and philanthropic network data to the Henglong Research Institute’s regular research.
• Zhao Chen added iteration to the framework and formalized procedures for proposing, reviewing, and validating future amendments.

Zhao Chen and Lin Shicheng reviewed Nvidia’s latest financial report, which confirmed the explosive growth of AI computing and the strength of Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem. The chapter left Zhao reassured that Era Vanguard’s investment rationale could be verified through public data even without relying on his personal foresight.

• Lin Shicheng told Zhao Chen that Nvidia’s latest report showed record revenue and profit, with data center revenue surpassing gaming for the first time.
• Lin Shicheng relayed Huang Renxun’s forecast that global data center computing demand could grow several millionfold over the next decade as AI reshaped how people interacted with computers.
• Lin Shicheng explained that CUDA had more than two million developers and a growing base of enterprise GPU acceleration customers, making its ecosystem difficult for competitors to replicate.
• Zhao Chen wrote that Nvidia’s public performance data had independently confirmed his earlier investment thesis about the computing power era.
• Lin Shicheng showed Zhao Chen a note saying the prediction matched the data and that its predictor held no exclusive right to interpret it.
• Zhao Chen recognized that Henglong and Era Vanguard could sustain his investment rationale even after his memories from before rebirth faded.

Zhao Chen directed Henglong to formalize a quarterly framework for validating Era Vanguard’s Nvidia investment thesis against public data. At the preparatory meeting, Chen Xi explained how Nvidia’s AI claims and its two million CUDA developers supported the thesis, while the committee’s review remained ahead.

• Zhao Chen asked Lin Shicheng to prepare a special report on Nvidia’s financial results and Huang Renxun’s earnings-call assessments for the Investment Decision Committee.
• Zhao Chen recorded that the investment thesis had been validated and made public data the basis for future quarterly reviews.
• Lin Shicheng told Zhao Chen that the company’s compliance procedures had helped it withstand investigations and attacks, and that formalizing validation would let Henglong maintain its safeguards institutionally.
• Zhao Chen sent Chen Xi and Zhang Qingxue the Nvidia results and requested model-validation and legal-compliance materials for the next quarterly review.
• Lin Shicheng delivered his annotated report, and Zhao Chen convened a preparatory video meeting with Lin Shicheng, Chen Xi, and Zhang Qingxue.
• Chen Xi said Henglong’s models supported Huang Renxun’s forecast of exponential growth in computing demand and that Nvidia’s two million CUDA developers indicated the ecosystem had reached a critical point for accelerating AI commercialization.

Zhao Chen and his team reviewed Huang Renxun’s Nvidia projections, their compliance implications, and the CUDA ecosystem’s competitive strength. After ordering expanded research and safeguards, Zhao approved Henglong Capital to consider buying Nvidia independently through its own investment procedures.

• Zhang Qingxue explained that Huang Renxun’s newly disclosed figures required Era Vanguard to avoid short-term opposite trading, document its decisions, and distinguish management guidance from Henglong’s independent model.
• Zhao Chen directed Lin Shicheng and Zhang Qingxue to draft an information-barrier memorandum and add the guidance-versus-model distinction to quarterly review reports.
• Lin Shicheng described CUDA’s developer ecosystem and its ties to academia, cloud providers, and enterprise users as barriers that competitors would struggle to replicate.
• Zhao Chen ordered Henglong Research Institute to expand its team and track those three CUDA dimensions separately.
• Chen Xi argued that the earnings report had validated Henglong’s institutional framework, and Zhao Chen said Henglong Capital could buy Nvidia if its own model and committee approved the investment.
• Zhao Chen specified that Henglong Capital would enter in batches at a slower pace, relying on independent verification rather than Era Vanguard’s position.

Chen Xi presented Zhao Chen with Henglong Capital’s independently researched, committee-approved plan to buy Nvidia shares, and Zhao approved the initial position. After deciding to notify Huang Renxun that Henglong would act independently and remain a passive investor, they received a brief acknowledgment from Nvidia.

• Chen Xi delivered Henglong Capital’s Nvidia purchase proposal, backed by independent valuation, unanimous committee approval, and completed compliance reviews.
• Chen Xi explained the conservative one-million-share initial purchase plan and said Henglong’s decisions relied on its own models and institutional framework.
• Zhao Chen approved the proposal and ordered quarterly model validation for Henglong Capital’s US stock holdings.
• Chen Xi recommended proactively notifying Huang Renxun that Henglong was buying shares independently as a long-term financial investor, and Zhao Chen agreed.
• Lin Shicheng relayed Henglong’s notice through Nvidia investor relations, and Huang Renxun replied, “Understood. Thanks for telling us in advance. Keep in touch.”

After Henglong Capital completed its Nvidia investment, Huang Renxun invited Zhao Chen to Nvidia’s Silicon Valley headquarters, acknowledging Henglong’s support and its openness about buying shares. Zhao accepted and prepared an independent research handbook for the meeting, which was drawing near.

• Lin Shicheng told Zhao Chen that Huang Renxun had sent him a personal invitation to meet at Nvidia’s Silicon Valley headquarters.
• Zhao asked Chen Xi to compile Henglong Research Institute’s independently verified Nvidia research into a comparison handbook for Huang.
• Zhao recalled Elon Musk’s advice about informing Huang before buying shares, and Musk said Huang had recognized Zhao and Musk as investors who helped plant trees.
• Zhao accepted the invitation and told Lin Shicheng to arrange the trip and use Henglong’s handbook as the basis for discussion.
• Chen Xi delivered the completed handbook to Zhao, who looked toward Silicon Valley and anticipated meeting Huang Renxun.

Zhao Chen flew to Silicon Valley to meet Huang Renxun, carrying Henglong Research Institute’s independently validated Nvidia monitoring handbook. He arrived with Henglong’s research and decision-making framework behind him, ready to discuss the model’s findings with Huang Renxun.

• Chen Xi prepared Zhao Chen’s travel itinerary and sealed Henglong’s independent monitoring handbook and Nvidia financial analysis in a file bag.
• Su Wantang delivered Zhao Chen’s suitcase, and Shen Zhiyi brought the cross-border guarantee filing confirmation before his departure.
• Elon Musk advised Zhao Chen that Huang Renxun would engage with technical discussion about CUDA and AI computing power rather than polite praise.
• Zhao Chen reviewed the handbook during the flight and recorded that Nvidia’s core variables matched Huang Renxun’s public data and that Henglong’s position rationale remained unchanged.
• Chen Xi discussed differences between Henglong’s model and management guidance in autonomous driving and medical imaging, and Zhao Chen noted her suggestion.
• Zhao Chen landed in San Francisco with the handbook and Henglong’s institutional framework backing his Nvidia investment decisions.

Zhao Chen and Lin Shicheng met Huang Renxun at Nvidia headquarters, where Huang tested Zhao's understanding of Nvidia's latest data and AI demand. Zhao showed him the Henglong Research Institute's tracking records and began explaining why he had trusted his model through Nvidia's earlier downturns.

• Lin Shicheng and Zhao Chen arrived at Nvidia headquarters and registered as visitors.
• Zhao Chen examined a photograph of Nvidia's founders before he and Lin Shicheng were escorted to a meeting room.
• Huang Renxun greeted Zhao Chen and asked him to assess the latest data on Nvidia's whiteboard.
• Zhao Chen and Huang Renxun compared their tracking of data center growth and AI computing demand, and Zhao explained that his model used only public data.
• Huang Renxun asked why Zhao had trusted the model during Nvidia's past downturns, and Zhao presented the research institute's historical tracking manual.
• Zhao Chen recalled analyzing Nvidia's public data alone in a Manhattan hotel while its share price fell.

Huang Renxun and Zhao Chen compared their independently built projections for data center computing demand and discussed why Zhao had trusted Nvidia’s long-term prospects. Huang was left impressed by Zhao’s explanation of how his own fear-driven discipline shaped his confidence in the company.

• Huang Renxun wrote that global data center computing demand would increase several millionfold over the next decade and asked Zhao Chen whether he thought the forecast was unrealistic.
• Zhao Chen explained that Henglong Research Institute’s independent model, built from public data, reached a similar projection and accounted separately for autonomous driving and medical imaging.
• Huang Renxun showed that Nvidia’s internal model projected slightly faster growth because its data included more recent autonomous-driving hiring and chip orders.
• Zhao Chen described how the institute tracked differences between its forecasts and management guidance, and Huang Renxun confirmed that Zhao’s team had documented its models and assumptions.
• Huang Renxun asked why Zhao had believed in Nvidia when its data center business was still small, and Zhao said Huang’s focus on architecture, ecosystem, and long-term demand had convinced him.
• Huang Renxun smiled after Zhao explained that his habit of fearing bankruptcy had become a daily discipline that would help Nvidia survive downturns.